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Chicago, we have a problem. I'm pretty sure that's the saying because ladies and gentlemen, the Chicago Bears officially have an offensive problem. After two weeks, fantasy managers are left wondering just how many players actually need to be rostered. Despite the monsoon they were forced to endure in Week 1, the question may be just one. As we embark on Week 3 of the fantasy football season, this particular edition of the Cut List could just be entitled Chicago's Casualties.
There was hope entering the 2022 season and with the removal of former coach Matt Nagy that the Bears would field a semi-competent offense and through just two weeks, fantasy managers are left reeling. What is the point of trading up and paying a premium price for Justin Fields if you're not actually going to use Justin Fields? Through two weeks, he has just 28 pass attempts. Somehow, he actually threw more passes in Week 1 when they playing in a torrential downpour and with the lead. If you want to try to make sense of it, I promise, you won't be able to.
As we get started looking at players fantasy managers can safely cut, you need to remember this information is all relative. Don't make cuts just to make cuts. Who to cut is only half the battle, the other question is if the addition is a net positive. We can't possibly name all the possible cut candidates so we'll be focusing on 12-team and 1QB leagues.
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Quarterbacks to Drop for Week 3?
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts – 26% Rostered on ESPN & 43% Rostered on Yahoo!
It's always interesting to see the different rostership percentages across ESPN and Yahoo!, but here the ESPN fantasy managers are correct. Matt Ryan does not need to be a rostered quarterback.
Through two weeks of the season, Ryan has just one touchdown and five turnovers. The passing attack for the Colts pretty much just runs through Michael Pittman and to his credit, he is absolutely an alpha receiver, but there are very few options behind him. That's problem one.
Per @TruMediaSports
Only Matt Ryan (14.3) had a higher Pressure% on dropbacks than
Joe Burrow 13.3Mac Jones, Lawrence, LJax all 0.0%
Murray 1.9
Tua 2.0Winston 12.8
Wentz, Mariota 9.4— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) September 19, 2022
That's problem No. 2. It's no mystery that Ryan isn't a young pup anymore and the poor offensive line play in Indianapolis is really affecting his production. Ryan has been one of the worst starting quarterbacks through two weeks and there are plenty of better options available.
It can't get worse QB edition
2021 EPA per play ranking:
Carson Wentz: 16th
Ben Roethlisberger: 25th2022 EPA per play ranking:
Matt Ryan: 32nd
Mitchell Trubisky: 29th— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) September 19, 2022
Like Carson Wentz.
Running Backs to Drop for Week 3?
Kenyan Drake, Baltimore Ravens – 22.9% Rostered on ESPN & 17% Rostered on Yahoo!
Last week, Kenyan Drake looked like the lead man in Baltimore's backfield. While that didn't result in too much fantasy production, the utilization in terms of snaps played and routes run was a positive indication of future fantasy success, especially with J.K. Dobbins still on the mend.
All of that changed in Week 2 and with very little heads up for fantasy managers. After leading the backfield in snaps after being a late addition during the preseason, it would've been reasonable to expect his role and involvement in the offense to grow.
#Ravens Week 2 RB opportunities (carries + targets):
Kenyan Drake - 6
Mike Davis - 5
Justice Hill - 3— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 19, 2022
While he did finish with the most opportunities, he played the fewest snaps out of Mike Davis and Justice Hill. With Dobbins having logged full practices all last week, there's good reason to believe he should be back in Week 3. Even if Dobbins doesn't immediately become the workhorse, the running back work behind him will likely be shared among all three of these backups.
Drake seemed to have an opportunity to earn the 1B role behind Dobbins, but he has done absolutely nothing to show that's what he deserves. Fantasy managers can safely move on. This backfield will either be Dobbins' or no one's.
Rex Burkhead, Houston Texans – 40.2% Rostered on ESPN & 37% Rostered on Yahoo!
Well, it was fun while it lasted. If you're trying to figure out what that Week 1 performance was, you're in the same boat as everyone else. After making it very clear Dameon Pierce would be their No. 1 running back in the preseason, the coaching staff went back to Rex Burkhead.
To no one's surprise, Burkhead, a veteran journeyman did absolutely nothing in Week 1 and we finally got the switch we were anticipating in Week 1.
Complete 180 for Houston's backfield in Week 2:
Dameon Pierce 63% snaps, 15 carries, 37% routes, 1 target
Rex Burkhead 35% snaps, 0 carries, 49% routes, 3 targets
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 19, 2022
The Houston offense is a disaster right now and there's very little value in their backfield. Pierce is the more explosive player and it's only a matter of time before he takes complete control of the running back work. That seemed to happen already in Week 2 when Pierce played on 63% of the snaps.
Pierce had 15 carries to Burkhead's 0 and even the passing game work was much closer than one would have expected after what happened in the first week. The route run percentage still favored Burkhead, but it won't be long until Pierce takes that too.
Burkhead is the 1B option in a bad offense. There's no reason to hold onto that kind of asset. There's more upside elsewhere.
Isaiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs – 18.8% Rostered on ESPN & 29% Rostered on Yahoo!
Due to Clyde Edwards-Helaire having disappointed in his first two years in the NFL, Isaiah Pacheco was a fan favorite as a running back sleeper this offseason.
There's no reason to believe that's the case anymore. In Week 2, Pacheco played just five snaps. He had two carries and zero targets. Jerrick McKinnon is the clear No. 2 running back in the Chiefs' backfield.
Fantasy managers shouldn't even feel confident that if CEH were to get hurt that Pacheco would become the guy. It seems more likely that McKinnon's role would grow and the Chiefs would likely bring in a veteran running back.
Edwards-Helaire has been running well and there's no reason to expect Pacheco's role to grow in the coming weeks. If you need a roster spot, it's fine to let go of the dream.
Wide Receivers to Drop for Week 3?
Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs – 50.2% Rostered on ESPN & 23% Rostered on Yahoo!
Going into the 2022 season, fantasy managers might have expected Skyy Moore to start slow. After all, they signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling (who was a cut candidate after Week 1 and is still a cut candidate), JuJu Smith-Schuster, and retained Mecole Hardman. Expecting a slow start and accepting what's actually happened are totally different.
through the first two weeks last season these Rookie Wide Receivers ALL had 60+ Routes Run 👇🏼
📍Ja’Marr Chase
📍Jaylen Waddle
📍DeVonta Smith
📍Elijah Moore
📍Amon-Ra St Brownthrough two weeks this season, Skyy Moore ONLY has SEVEN 😅
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) September 16, 2022
If you're looking for a really interesting read as to why what's happened to Moore in the first two weeks is so concerning, this Twitter thread below is a must-read.
When should we bail on our favorite Rookie WR?
This is a burning question early in the year so let's try to answer it. 🔥🚒
— Todd - DynastySflex (@DynastySFlex) September 19, 2022
He played just two snaps in Week 2 and didn't record a single route run. Justin Watson played ahead of him on the depth chart. While it would've been unrealistic to expect him to come out firing on all cylinders, we would've expected him to at least be on the field. You can safely cut bait now. Speaking of being on the field...
Kadarius Toney, New York Giants – 66.8% Rostered on ESPN & 46% Rostered on Yahoo!
There's no denying what Kadarius Toney can do with the ball in his hands, but fantasy managers need to expect the Giants' coaching staff doesn't want the ball in his hands.
In Week 1, he played just seven snaps. While that snap count increased in Week 2, he still played just 40% of the snaps in Week 2. Even worse was his route participation...
#Giants Week 2 WR route rates:
David Sills - 93%
Sterling Shepard - 91%
Richie James - 59%
Kadarius Toney - 37%
Darius Slayton - 7%
Kenny Golladay - 4%— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 19, 2022
He had just three targets in Week 2 after not earning a single target in the first game of the year. His three targets were tied for fifth on the team. I constantly wonder what could be if he got out of his own way and got the playing time his talent deserves. Unfortunately, we may never know.
Tight Ends to Drop for Week 3?
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots – 70.6% Rostered on ESPN & 53% Rostered on Yahoo!
After a route participation of over 80% in Week 1, Henry saw that number drop to 58%. He actually played fewer snaps than Jonnu Smith, which didn't happen a single time in 2021. The Patriots are more interested in getting Smith involved in the offense and it's negatively affecting Henry's fantasy value.
He has just four targets on the season and just two catches for 20 yards. Anyone who drafted Henry this year should have been expecting low target numbers, but he had elite red zone utilization, which was enough to overcome that.
In 2022, the Patriots' offense just hasn't been nearly as good as it was last year. If you eliminate Henry's red zone work, you have a weekly goose egg waiting to happen and that's been the case. Until the Patriots start moving the ball, Henry can safely be kept on waivers.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears – 64.3% Rostered on ESPN & 70% Rostered on Yahoo!
Holy crap. What else can even be said? This has to be one of the bigger disappointments of the young fantasy season. While the Week 1 goose egg could be written off due to the weather, the Week 2 performance waves a gigantic red flag.
The Bears attempted 11 passes last night against the Packers. That’s 6 fewer than a week ago when they played in hurricane like conditions
Blamed the weather a week ago, but seems by design. Cole Kmet droppable, Darnell Mooney benchable. Monty only bear in play right now
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 19, 2022
Not only did he earn just a single target, which is a big problem within itself, but Kmet has other problems to contend with. He is struggling to generate targets and the Bears simply are not passing the football.
Through two weeks, they have just 28 pass attempts. Even in Week 2, with Chicago trailing almost the whole game, they had just 11 attempts. If the Bears are not going to let Justin Fields throw it, there's nothing Kmet can do.
As of right now, Chicago's offense is a mess and the only player fantasy managers need to be starting is David Montgomery. Kmet can safely be dropped.
On the Hot Seat
Jarvis Landry, New Orleans Saints – 64.5% Rostered on ESPN & 54% Rostered on Yahoo!
There were hopes entering the 2022 season that Jarvis Landry would be a quality PPR asset. He's a veteran who has always earned targets, no matter where he's been. Then Week 1 went and he garnered eight targets. Same old Landry, right?
Of note: Chris Olave was running in 2WR sets over Jarvis Landry Sunday
— Cooper Adams (@CoopsFB) September 19, 2022
This is a very bad development for Landry's fantasy value. If Chris Olave has officially taken over the No. 2 role in New Orleans, it's going to be increasingly more difficult for Landry to be a fantasy-relevant player.
Michael Thomas and Olave seem locked in as the No. 1 and No. 2 options in this offense. Even more interesting, Juwan Johnson, the tight end for the Saints earned seven targets of his own in Week 2, which was more than Landry.
Due to Landry's history of fantasy production, he's not a must-cut player, but he's officially on the hot seat. There's very little upside with Landry's role to begin with due to the lack of downfield work and now he's dropping further down the target hierarchy. Bad news all around.
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns – 35.5% Rostered on ESPN & 55% Rostered on Yahoo!
While David Njoku still holds a big lead over Harrison Bryant in terms of snaps played (63–32), in the routes run department, the number looks much closer. Njoku had the advantage in Week 2, 28–19. After Bryant out-targeted Njoku in Week 1, the veteran earned a bit more work in Week 2, but marginally.
Njoku had five targets to Bryant's four. There was hope that after Austin Hooper was released and Njoku got the big contract that he would be the clear No. 1 guy and while that's been true in terms of snap count, it's been a little less clear in targets, where Bryant leads after two weeks.
The Browns' passing offense is extremely limited right now and the appeal to Njoku was the potential volume with Jacoby Brissett unwilling to push the ball downfield, but that hasn't resulted in any fantasy goodness for Njoku.
He had five targets this past week, which included an end zone target, so if you're inclined to hold, there's certainly an argument for doing so. However, if there are better waiver wire options available, Njoku is no longer a must-hold.
Hold On
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears – 41.7% Rostered on ESPN & 58% Rostered on Yahoo!
I'm simply unwilling to give up on the talent yet. He may not be the most polished thrower yet. He may not be the best real-life quarterback, but his athleticism and his legs can be a huge fantasy asset.
There's no denying that the first two weeks have been ugly. However, to be fair they played in a hurricane in Week 1, and in Week 2, they had to play the Green Bay Packers, on the road, in primetime, after the Packers got their butts kicked in Week 1.
#Packers in the regular season under HC Matt LaFleur…
• 36-9 record
• 9-0 after a lossNo back-to-back losses in 2+ seasons. Wild when you think about it…
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 29, 2021
After how the Packers played in Week 1, it's fair to have expected any offense who came into Lambeau in Week 2 to have struggled. Unfortunately, for Fields and his fantasy managers, the Bears got that draw.
Fields cannot be started right now, but his ability to run the football is an X-Factor in fantasy football and if you're able to hang onto that upside, it could be worth it.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears – 92.2% Rostered on ESPN & 87% Rostered on Yahoo!
You can pretty much copy and paste everything above down here for Darnell Mooney. Justin Jefferson absolutely shredded the Packers' secondary. He embarrassed them. It was humiliating. That's especially true for a secondary that is full of three first-rounders and a Pro Bowl safety.
This Green Bay secondary is one of the best in football and after their performance on opening weekend, Fields and Mooney had to deal with an angry Packers defense. It would've been a bad spot for any offense to be in.
Like Fields, Mooney is not startable right now, but he's the unquestioned No. 1 option for this Bears' passing offense and eventually, they're going to be forced to air it out a bit.
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