Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (6/27/22)

Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/27/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.

It's Monday, June 27th and with the NHL wrapping up last night, MLB is the only major sport going on right now. With that, you might be looking to make some bets today and that's where this article comes in! In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, June 27, 2022. There are nine games being played tonight, and I will give you a couple of my favorite picks below!

This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer. 

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Cardinals

O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: STL -125
MIA: Pablo Lopez | STL: Adam Wainwright

The Marlins and Cardinals kick off a new series this week in Saint Louis. For Game 1, we get a fun matchup between aces with Pablo Lopez and Adam Wainwright on the mound tonight! Lopez has a 3.51 SIERA, a 25.1% strikeout rate, and a 6.9% walk rate. His surface stats are 5-3 with a 2.61 ERA. Wainwright has a 3.32 ERA, is 5-5, has a 4.15 SIERA, a 19.3% strikeout rate, and a 7.2% walk rate. Pablo Lopez has the edge when looking at the underlying metrics. Lopez has a better SIERA and a higher K-BB%. With the edge in the starters, how do the bullpens fare?

As far as bullpens go, Miami has a 3.52 SIERA and a 15.5% K-BB%. Saint Louis has a bullpen SIERA of 3.90 and a 11.5% K-BB%. Miami has the advantage here with a better bullpen as well. They have a lower SIERA and a higher K-BB%. Now that we have the pitching covered, it's time to look at some bats.

Offensively, Saint Louis has an edge though. Saint Louis has scored the fourth-most runs in baseball. They are also ninth in OBP, and 15th in ISO. Miami is 14th in runs scored, 18th in OBP, and 14th in ISO. The teams have similar power in their lineup but Saint Louis is better at getting on base and driving in runs.

So we have Miami which has a better starting pitcher and a better bullpen. Saint Louis has a better all-around offense and is one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. To me, this game should be -110 on both sides but it is not. Because we can get Miami at plus odds, that is the team I will back here tonight.

Pick: Miami Moneyline (+110), FanDuel/BetMGM/Caesar's/PointsBet/FoxBet Sportsbook 0.5 units

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Angels

O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: LAA -130
CHW: Lucas Giolito | LAA: Noah Syndergaard

The White Sox go to Anaheim to take on the Angels in the first part of this week. For the first game, Lucas Giolito and Noah Syndergaard will be pitching. If this was a couple of years ago, we would probably think it was a matchup between two potential Cy Young winners. It's interesting how things change. Lucas Gilito has struggled as of late and there has been quite a bit of overreaction on social media asking if he is the worst pitcher ever, etc.

Looking at the underlying stats, Giolito has a 3.69 SIERA and 3.72 xFIP despite the 5.40 ERA. He also has a 27.2% strikeout rate and a 9.3% walk rate for a 17.9% K-BB%. His strikeout rate is the highest of any pitcher going today and his K-BB% is just behind Pablo Lopez by two-tenths of a percent. Yes, he has given up 15 runs in his last two games (10 innings pitched) which is not good. I think he bounces back. The Angels have the highest strikeout rate in baseball (25.5%). The Angels also are 22nd in OBP. They do have the ninth-highest ISO in the game, which is not a surprise with guys like Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout in the lineup, so they can do some damage if mistakes are made.

Call me crazy, but I am going to back the White Sox tonight. I am interested in the F5 Moneyline and Giolito outpitching Syndergaard. Syndergaard has a 4.40 SIERA and a 10.2% K-BB% with just a 16.3% strikeout rate. The market is low on Giolito, people are frustrated with him. Even with the bad starts, he is pitching better than Syndergaard this season and if I can back him at plus money, that's interesting to me.

Pick: White Sox F5 Moneyline (+140) BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.5 units

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!

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