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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/3/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is Tuesday and this article will focus on the 15-game slate that starts at 6:10 p.m. Eastern time so that everyone that sees this will have time to tail the plays if they wish!
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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Tuesday, May 3, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 7-15 overall on the season, down 2.846 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. It has been frustratingly difficult to predict the outcome of games in part due to the ball but we have to keep grinding, it's a long season, and eventually we will get in the black!
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: LAD -137
SF: Carlos Rodon | LAD: Julio Urias
This has the makings of a really fun game to watch. The San Francisco Giants have Carlos Rodon taking the mound against the Dodgers. Rodon is 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA, 2.21 xFIP, and 43.2% strikeout rate in three starts this year. This is significantly better than his career numbers: 3.70 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, and a 25.4% strikeout rate. He is pitching really well right now. It will eventually regress to his career metrics but that doesn't mean he can't have a great start today.
Julio Urias is also having a good season on the surface: 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA. His xFIP is 4.60 and his K-BB% is just 9.6% thus far. His strikeout rate is down 5.7% from last year and his walk rate is up 5.9% thus far this season. Urias is also allowing 1.0 HR/9 (career-high so far), and a 30.6% hard-hit rate (also a career-high so far). If he continues to pitch like this, his surface stats will not look as nice as there are some concerns here he needs to address.
Offensively the Giants are No. 11 in OBP (.315), T-No. 15 in ISO (.142), and T-No. 2 in runs scored this season (109). The Dodgers are No. 9 in OBP (.321), No. 12 in ISO (.147), and No 9. in runs scored this season (102).
The bullpens for these teams are dead even as well. The Giants have the No. 3 bullpen ERA (2.77). The Dodgers have the No. 4 bullpen ERA (2.77).
The recap, the Giants have the edge in starting pitching. Offensively the teams are also close -- the Giants have scored more runs, but both teams have a similar power profile and the Dodgers in general are doing better with getting on base. The bullpens are also dead even.
With these teams being so close, they should be both at -105 or -110, but they are not. The Dodgers have an implied 57.81% winning probability according to their -137 odds. That feels a little too high to me, especially for a team with a starting pitcher who is not pitching as well as they have in the past or even as good as the opposing team's. I like San Francisco here due to the price.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (+126), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units.
Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIN -159
MIN: Joe Ryan | BAL: Bruce Zimmermann
The Twins and Orioles are set here for another pitchers duel after Chris Paddack vs. Tyler Wells resulted in a 2-1 game. This was a game that I thought had a great chance at scoring a ton of runs and it did not. Now I look at the matchup here and think this could be a low scoring game and who knows what will happen.....
Joe Ryan is 3-1 with a 1.17 ERA backed by a 3.31 xFIP and 22.9% K-BB% so far. Based on his numbers, his strikeouts are legit and his ERA will regress to his xFIP over time, but even a 3.31 ERA is pretty good. Baltimore is No. 26 in runs scored, No. 2 in strikeout rate, and No. 27 in ISO. Ryan should be able to go out there and shut the Orioles down.
Bruce Zimmerman is a bit of a surprised with a 1-0 record and a 0.93 ERA. Last year his ERA was 5.04 and his xFIP was 4.44. He is also keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just 0.47 HR/9 after allowing 1.96 HR/9 last year. Is he improving or will he eventually get shelled? Minnesota is No. 14 in runs scored, No. 8 in strikeout rate, and tied for No. 10 in ISO. Normally, I would think Minnesota would be in a great spot here to score some runs against a pitcher that has not proven themselves, but the ball seems so dead it may not matter.
Both pitchers are pitching well right now and neither team's bats are much better than average overall. I like the under in this game until I see the ball is not dead.
Pick: Over 7.0 Runs (-105), FanDuel, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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