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Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my PGA DFS Pivots for DraftKings! This week, the PGA event is The Valero Texas Open.
We are a week away from The Masters! This is an important tournament for golfers for a number of reasons. For many, it is their last chance to qualify for next week. For some, they are using this event as a prep for Augusta National. Trying to judge motivation and how a golfer might be feeling heading into this week is very difficult. Many narratives that exist are unquantifiable and only complement the handicapping process.
In a weaker field with so many questions, It may be best to lean on something that is predictable; ownership. Projected ownership, while never 100% accurate, is easier to predict than how golfers will finish in a tournament. For this reason, making logical pivots off highly owned golfers can help us create leverage.
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The Valero Texas Open: DFS Lineup Pivots
Pivot Off: Chris Kirk ($9,400)- It makes sense as to why Chris Kirk is projected to be one of the highest owned golfers in the field. Kirk has had a strong start to the year. Before The Players Championship, Kirk recorded three straight top 15-place finishes. He has also gained strokes on approach in five straight tournaments. Kirk also has excellent course history at TPC San Antonio. However, his high ownership gives us an opportunity to find leverage if we are comfortable pivoting to someone else.
While it is not as talented field as The Players, Kirk is priced $2,400 more this week. Combined with his high ownership, we are buying Kirk at an extreme high. As with any investment, it is hard to turn a profit consistently buying high. While Kirk may play well this week, in GPPs it may be best to pivot of Kirk.
Top PGA DFS Pivot Plays
Abaham Ancer ($10,300) - Abraham Ancer seems to have figured out his new equipment. Last week at The WGC-Match Play Ancer played well and made it to the quarterfinals. Ancer had an impressive performance versus Collin Morikawa where he won seven and six. Ancer had five birdies in that match that finished on the 12th hole. Ancer should like TPC San Antonio, his ability to find fairways and his excellent approach game should help him contend at low ownership.
Si Woo Kim ($9,600) – Si Woo Kim has had a sneaky good year so far. He recorded two straight 11-place finishes in January. Since the beginning of the year, he has gained strokes tee-to-green in six straight tournaments. Kim has also played well at this event before. He ranks 22nd in the field in DraftKings points and 21st tee-to-green at TPC San Antonio. Kim is sandwiched between highly owned Corey Conners and Maverick McNealy. He is flying the under the radar and offers plenty of upside.
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Rasmus Hojgaard ($7,900) - Rasmus Hojgaard won last year’s European Omega Masters. Over the last two years on the DP World Tour, Hojgaard has been a leader in driving distance and green in regulation percentage. Last week at Punta Cana Hojgaard finished in sixth place with three straight days of shooting 67. He continued his strong GIR game by hitting almost 78%of his greens in regulation. With little data on Hojgaard and his low ownership, he makes for a great play in GPPs this week.
Rickie Fowler ($7,700) - Rickie Fowler has played better than his results have shown this year. He has gained strokes on approach in four out of his last five tournaments. At The Arnold Palmer he gained 4.3 strokes tee-to-green, 2.5 strokes off-the-tee, and 3.5 strokes on approach. Putting has been Fowler’s Achilles heel. He has lost strokes putting in almost every tournament this year. At only single-digit ownership, I am willing to risk that his ball-striking remains solid and hope the putting improves.
Dylan Frittelli ($7,200) - The South African should be very familiar with Texas. Frittelli is a University of Texas alumni and as expected, he has played well at this event. Frittelli ranks 28th in ball striking and 37th in Draftkings points at TPC San Antonio. Frittelli Is also in good form. He has gained strokes on approach in four straight events, highlighted by gaining 4.2 strokes at The Players Championship. Frittelli will look to use his length off-the-tee and superior wedge play to contend this week in San Antonio.
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