6 Post-Hype Sleepers: Breakout Candidates

Elliot's six post-hype fantasy baseball sleepers and breakout candidates for 2025 drafts. His top later-round value picks with upside who can have big seasons.

Howdy RotoBallers! It’s almost time for Opening Day stateside, which means it’s fantasy baseball draft crunch time. In this article, I’ve identified six post-hype sleepers that are nice values late in drafts.

They’ve all been top fantasy baseball prospects or hyped up at one point, but the shine has worn off these guys after some major league struggles. These are later-round fliers and value picks that you can snag at the end of your draft, for for a couple of bucks in an auction draft.

ADP is taken from NFBC and is accurate as of 3/22/25. For a deeper dive into ADP trends and strategies, check out our Fantasy Baseball ADP Guide to gain an edge on draft day. Good luck RotoBallers!

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Tyler Soderstrom, 1B, Athletics

NFBC ADP: 286.55

Soderstrom was once a highly regarded prospect as a catcher, and while his defense forced him to first base, he is still an interesting bat to look at in drafts. Soderstrom crushed minor league pitching last season to the tune of a .279/.385/.607 triple slash with 10 home runs in 143 PA at Triple-A.

He didn’t fare as well in the majors, but Soderstrom didn’t seem overmatched either. He struck out 24.9% of the time, which is about the same as his Triple-A strikeout rate. He only hit .233, but he had a .273 BABIP. Soderstrom isn’t the fastest and only had a 13.1% line drive rate last year so there probably isn’t a ton of room for improvement, but his average could rise 10 or so points in 2025.

What’s really to like about Soderstrom is the power. He smacked nine home runs in 213 PA in the majors last season, but the underlying numbers suggest more power lurking in this bat. Soderstrom had a .480 xSLG compared to his .429 actual SLG and had a blistering 91.9 mph average exit velocity.

Soderstrom also had a strong 14.6% barrel rate, a number made even more impressive by his sub-25% strikeout rate. Sure, we see big barrel rate numbers from guys like Oneil Cruz and Michael Toglia, but they strike out over 30% of the time. Soderstrom is making more consistent contact, which should lead to improved power in 2025.

The ballpark shift to Sacramento could help Soderstrom find more power as well. He had a .221 ISO on the road but a .158 ISO at home last season. Sutter Health Park isn’t known as a hitter’s haven, but it should serve better than the Coliseum for power. He’s slated to hit fifth and play first base for the Athletics this season, and he’s an interesting CI option at his current ADP.

Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers

NFBC ADP: 391.78

The No. 1 draft pick in 2020, Torkelson, has been crushing it this spring with a .997 OPS and four home runs in 44 PA. What’s especially encouraging for Torkelson is a reduction in his strikeout rate. He’s only struck out 22.7% of the time thus far in Spring Training, whereas he struck out 27.6% of the time in 2024. Let’s not forget that Torkelson also smacked 31 home runs in 2023, so the hype (or post-hype) is more than theoretical in his case.

The Statcast numbers from that season suggest big power in Torkelson’s bat. He had a 91.8 mph average exit velocity and a 14.1% barrel rate. Unfortunately, his EV dropped to 89 mph, and his barrel rate plummeted to 6.7%. Torkelson may’ve been selling out too much for flyballs that season.

He raised his launch angle to 20.2 degrees in 2024, and his flyball rate was 50.8%. It’s tough to have a solid batting average with such a high flyball rate, especially playing half his games in Comerica Park. He also had a low 15.1% line drive rate, so it appears that Torkelson earned his poor 2024.

With 2024 behind him and a strong spring, Torkelson has shown the ability to straighten out his swing and smack bombs once again. He’s even played some outfield this spring, so perhaps Torkelson could get some additional eligibility. The Tigers have Javier Baez slated to play third base; they could give Torkelson a chance there, too, if they felt froggy. He’s not someone I’d invest too heavily in, but he seems like a good dart throw late in drafts. Remember, he hit 31 home runs in 2023; I’d take him over less-proven guys like Jhonkensy Noel and Pavin Smith.

Nolan Gorman, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals

NFBC ADP: 379.55

The other Nolan in St. Louis, Gorman, was atrocious last season. He managed to hit 19 home runs, but he had a .203/.271/.400 triple slash and a whopping 37.6% strikeout rate. He had the second-highest strikeout rate among batters in the majors last season (min. 400 PA). This came after a 2023 season where Gorman hit 27 bombs and slugged .478 with a 118 wRC+. Gorman's batting average was just .236, and he struck out 31.9% of the time, but you can live with that at 2B if he’s producing power.

What’s interesting about Gorman is that he supposedly reworked his swing this offseason. The spring results haven’t been there, with Gorman sporting a .200/.245/.340 triple slashline in 53 PA as of writing this, but his reduced strikeout rate is encouraging. Gorman has struck out just 22.6% of the time this spring, and his swinging strike rate is just 12.6%, down from a wild 18.5% last season. His contact rate is up to 73.4%, when he was at a pitiful 63.5% in the regular season last year.

If Gorman can make more contact, he could become much more valuable in fantasy. He has consistently posted elite barrel rates, putting up a barrel rate over 16% in each of the last two seasons. Can you imagine if he could cut his strikeout rate to 25% but maintain those barrels? His xwOBAcon last season was .463, only 21 points lower than his strong 2023 campaign.

Unfortunately, one concern is that his average exit velocity dropped from 91 mph in 2023 to 88.5 mph in 2024. Perhaps the new swing can help him recapture that power, but we’ll need to see it. Even with the dip in exit velocity, I like Gorman as a late round 2B flier. He’s supposedly going to get 550-600 PA this season, which could lead him to hit 25 or more home runs again.

Kris Bubic, SP, Kansas City Royals

NFBC ADP: 367.71

Bubic dominated in 2024 after being converted from a starter to a reliever. In 27 appearances, Bubic posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.95 FIP, and 28.1% K-BB%. That is filthy, and with Bubic set to rejoin the Royals rotation for Opening Day, he may have some fantasy appeal as a late-round grab.

A former top prospect, Bubic flamed out as a starter after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023. He returned in 2024 and excelled as a reliever, working primarily with a three-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup. He’s also added a cutter that he’s been using to great effectiveness this spring.

Something that worked well for Bubic last season was his fastball. His velocity was up almost two mph, and he averaged 93 mph on the gun last season. He’s been averaging 93 during the spring, so perhaps Bubic can carry those velocity gains into the rotation.

Opponents really struggled against his fastball last season, batting just .205 against the pitch along with a .272 wOBA. Batters could not make solid contact, averaging just an 82.3 mph exit velocity against the pitch last season. This is a big improvement for Bubic, whose fastball was getting smoked for 90+ mph in years past.

Bubic also got more whiffs with his fastball last season, putting up an impressive 15.5% swinging strike rate and a 33.3% chase rate, which are exceptional numbers for a fastball. Bubic gained movement with the pitch in addition to velocity and began using it differently. Let’s compare his fastball heatmap from last season to the rest of his career.

Pre-2024:

2024:

He kept it up and in against righties and away from lefties, ultimately wielding a much more effective offering. The fastball wasn’t his only significant improvement, either. Bubic had a 13.3% swinging strike rate, a 37.5% chase rate with his slider, an even better 18.2% swinging strike rate, and a 45.7% chase rate with his changeup.

He performed better against righties last season, largely thanks to his nasty changeup. There’s no guarantee that Bubic can translate his bullpen success to the rotation, but after seeing success stories like Reynaldo Lopez last season, why not take a shot on Bubic? He’s one of my favorite pitchers to grab at the end of drafts this season.

Michael Soroka, SP/RP, Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP: 459.71

Soroka was once an emergent star on the Braves, posting a 2.68 ERA over 174.2 innings as a 21-year-old back in 2019. It seemed like little could get in the way between Soroka and stardom, but like with many pitchers, Soroka struggled to stay healthy. Unlike many pitchers, it wasn’t arm troubles that kept him down.

He pitched in just 10 games between 2020 and 2023 after suffering the misfortune of tearing and retearing his Achilles tendon. Out of time with the Braves, he was sent to baseball purgatory last season (AKA the White Sox) and went 0-10 with a 4.74 ERA. So, why should we believe in him?

Soroka hasn’t had the best results this spring with a 7.47 ERA and 5.86 FIP in four outings as of writing this. Still, he’s done some interesting things with his pitch mix that may have us raising an eyebrow or two. Perhaps the most interesting thing he’s done is raise his fastball velocity.

Soroka threw his fastball 93.5 mph last season, but he averaged 94.6 mph in his most recent spring start. He also saw his sinker velocity spike up to 94.2 mph, where he averaged 92.3 mph with it in 2024.

If Soroka can sustain these velocity gains in the regular season, his strikeout rate could rise. Batters already struggled against his slider last season to the tune of a .168 AVG, .317 SLG, and .252 wOBA, along with a 41.7% whiff rate. Those are all excellent numbers, and it’s kind of surprising that Soroka didn’t have better outcomes with the White Sox, given these numbers.

What held him back was his fastball, which had a 21.1% whiff rate last year. Soroka notched four whiffs with a 31% whiff rate with the four-seamer in his most recent spring start with Statcast data, and he also has an improved 11.4% swinging strike rate this spring.

He had a 24.2% strikeout rate last season, and I think he could at least maintain that this year. He’s on a better team by default as well, so he’ll have a better supporting cast around him. Soroka isn’t as exciting to me as the other two pitchers; his repertoire is limited, and I don’t think he’ll be able to reach the heights we saw in 2019. He relied heavily on luck during his breakout 2019 season. Still, at his cost, he might be worth a stab late in drafts. If he can sustain these velocity gains, he could be a much better pitcher and a fantasy asset in 2025.

Reid Detmers, SP, Los Angeles Angels

NFBC ADP: 389.74

UPDATE 3/24: Reid Detmers will start the season in the bullpen, and is set for a long-relief/swing role to open the year.

Another first-round pick in 2020, Detmers got crushed last season to the tune of a 4-9 record and 6.70 ERA. He didn’t pitch his best and suffered some misfortune on top of it. Still, one doesn’t have to look too deeply into this profile to see the potential. Despite the struggles, Detmers had a 27.9% strikeout rate and a 3.77 SIERA, three runs lower than his actual ERA.

A former top prospect, the hype is off Detmers coming into this season as he’s currently going at pick 389 in NFBC drafts. He’s basically free in standard leagues as well. Is there any value to be had here?

I mentioned that Detmers had some misfortune last season, and that might be an understatement. He was one of the most unlucky pitchers in the majors last season. He had an ugly .370 wOBA against, but just a .314 xwOBA against, giving him the largest gap between actual and expected results in MLB in 2024.

He also had a bloated .357 BABIP against and an uncharacteristically high 17.1% HR/FB ratio. His BABIP rose despite a career-low 17.9% line drive rate against. We could expect his BABIP to normalize towards the league average of .300; he had a career .301 BABIP against prior to last season. If that happens, we could certainly expect improvements on his 62.9% LOB rate as well.

While we can expect better outcomes for Detmers in 2025, there are still some concerning aspects of his game that should be addressed. He gives up good quality contact, including an 89.9 mph average exit velocity and a 10.7% barrel rate against last season.

He managed a sub-10% barrel rate in the previous two seasons, so there’s hope that the number will drop, but he’s always surrendered hard contact. He also has flyball tendencies in a hitter-friendly ballpark, meaning his home run rate could remain high even if the HR/FB ratio normalizes.

It’s not easy to find strikeouts late in drafts and Detmers had a 13% swinging strike rate and a 30.1% chase rate last season; his strikeout rate is legit. If everything broke Detmers’ way he could have a sub-4.00 ERA with a good strikeout rate, but I’d need to see him do it on the field before I’d trust him in my lineup.

Apparently, the Angels think less of Detmers than this writer as they've announced he'll work out of the bullpen to begin the season. He could certainly earn his way back into the rotation at some point; the Angels have three starts over the age of 33 and fifth start Jack Kochanowicz is hardly a proven commodity. He's best kept as a name to remember in case he does emerge as a starter or a dominant reliever. Detmers has the talent to succeed, if he can put everything together.

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