5 Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Busts Who Will Struggle Again In 2025

March 13, 2025

Mike looks at five starting pitcher fantasy baseball busts, avoids, fades for 2025 drafts. These pitchers busted last year and will struggle again in 2025.

Every year, the team at RotoBaller strives to provide you with information to help you in your fantasy league drafts. Many times, these pieces will focus on finding the players you want.  In this article today, we will look at five pitchers who were mostly lousy last year and will continue to not meet high expectations in 2025.

In some cases, like those of Frankie Montas and Kyle Hendricks, we are dealing with pitchers who were once near the top echelon of starters for our fantasy teams. The three others, Jesus Luzardo, Triston McKenzie, and Brady Singer, were all high-level prospects who have met with injuries, bad luck, and some skill erosion as their careers have developed over the last several seasons.

Let's jump right in and examine why you should leave these five pitchers at the draft table.

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Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

Luzardo has gone from a fantasy darling two years ago to an afterthought in 2025. Until he shows that he can bounce back and stay healthy, it is best to leave Luzardo to another fantasy player or on the waiver wire.

Luzardo lost a bunch of time to injury in 2024, where he made only 12 starts and was 3-6 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 66 innings. The K rate was a subpar 21.2%, leaving him with a mediocre 13.1 percent K-BB%. The Phillies are hoping a change of scenery reignites Luzardo's stagnant career.

Below, you can see some of the telltale signs of Luzardo's fade: the drop in K rate from 28.1 percent to 21.2 percent, an increase in walk percentage to 8 percent, barrel percentage up to 9.9 percent, a 1.5 MPH decrease in his four-seamer velocity.

Some fantasy players will be willing to roll the dice on Luzardo, who at 26 could find his old level of 2023, where he posted 10 wins and 208 strikeouts. There aren't many signs that show he can get back to his previous level, but a change to his pitch mix to focus more on off-speed pitches might help him. At this time, he is off my draft list.

Frankie Montas, SP, New York Mets

In the fantasy baseball world, it always feels like many feel that Montas can hit another level with good health and a good team. Alas, at this point, he likely is what he is. Montas was already hurt early in Spring Training and has been shut down for six-to-eight weeks with a strained lat.

There are no guarantees of when he will return to the Mets' rotation. Add in the fact that Montas has been inconsistent, and you have a recipe for a pitcher you should pass, despite your fond memories of him being effective in Oakland.

Montas still features a good fastball at 95.3 MPH, but the rest of his repertoire has betrayed him as he searches for answers. Montas was 7-11 last season with an unsightly 4.84 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.

He did throw 150 innings and net 148 strikeouts, so that helps a bit. But the hits you will take to your ratios aren't worth the strikeouts. It's a pass for me on Montas in 2025. Check out the table below and see for yourself.

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

Singer appeared on this list in 2024 and will make a second appearance here in 2025. It's not that Singer is a bad pitcher; he's not. His move from a good home park in Kansas City to a bad home park in Cincinnati is the primary reason he is here again.

In 2024, Singer went 9-13 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 32 starts. He threw 179 innings and contributed 170 strikeouts. On the surface, things look fine, as if Singer could be a good fourth or fifth starter in your rotation.

The 4.65 xERA says he enjoyed a full run's worth of fortune, and he surrendered 179 hits, 22 home runs, and 54 walks last season. The only thing saving him is his 48.2 percent groundball percentage, which could help him in the Great American Ball Park. In three of his last four seasons, Singer has had double-digit losses with win totals of five, 10, eight, and nine.

There are better options later in drafts. Let someone else take the risk that he can somehow find his good stuff again while playing half of his games in one of the toughest ballparks.

Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians

I so badly wanted to believe that McKenzie was a sleeper pick a few years ago, yet something always held me back from hitting the smash button in my drafts. Look at the simple graphic below.

This is McKenzie's walk rate over the last five seasons. By comparison, the average walk rate in the major leagues is 8.4 percent. McKenzie topped out at 17.8 percent in 2023 and followed that ghastly number up with an unsightly 14.4 percent in 2024.

Last season, McKenzie went 3-5 with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 16 starts. He did add 74 strikeouts in 75 innings, so that was helpful. But it is now three long seasons since McKenzie last had success, winning 11 games with a 2.96 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and 190 strikeouts.

Some may believe that he can right the ship, and at only age 27, that could happen. I will let someone else take the chance on McKenzie and focus on other late-round draft targets.

Kyle Hendricks, Los Angeles Angels

This feels a bit like cheating, as Hendricks has been struggling to be effective for years. Hendricks is the type of pitcher we love to love: a cerebral guy who uses his brain and guile more than his stuff to get hitters out.

Yet, as time has gone on, Hendricks's pure stuff has lost much of its luster. Last year, Hendricks was 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and only 87 strikeouts in 130 innings pitched.

He still limits hard contact as evidenced by his 85.9 MPH average exit velocity and his 33.4 percent hard hit percentage. Sadly, that is all the veteran has to offer, and because of that, he is no longer roster-worthy in even the deepest of leagues.

At age 35, there is little reason to think he finds the Fountain of Youth and recovers his old self. Even with a change of teams from the Chicago Cubs to the Los Angeles Angels, it appears this could be the wily veteran's swan song in 2025. Let someone else take the chance on Hendricks.

Here's hoping this piece was helpful to you in thinking about pitchers to avoid in your drafts this year.

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