Fantasy Football Target Risers: 5 Wide Receiver Target Hogs to Draft in 2025

Quincy's top fantasy football wide receiver target hogs and risers for 2025. His No. 1 wide receiver draft targets and league-winners, including Tyreek Hill.

Wide receivers can experience target fluctuations on a year-to-year basis. Quarterback changes, scheme changes, and aging can affect how many targets and what percentage of targets wide receivers earn in their offense. That variation can be positive or negative and is often predictive based on historical data for the team and the specific player.

Positive regression candidates are often players who are receiving an upgrade at quarterback, are stepping into a larger role, or are prime for a breakout. Often, if a player is still in his prime and experiences a down year in terms of targets, they are able to bounce back. It's aging players who are typically unable to recover from a bad target season.

Players with the potential for positive target regression can provide great value for your fantasy team. These players are generally drafted lower than they have been in the past, and you can scoop them closer to their floor than their ceiling. With a handful of positive regression candidates at our disposal in 2025, let's dive in and check them out.

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Marvin Harrison Jr. - Arizona Cardinals

2024 Targets Per Game: 6.8

Marvin Harrison Jr.'s rookie season in 2024 was met with much scrutiny. The No. 4 overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, entered the league with the expectation that he would have one of the great rookie wide receiver seasons that we have become accustomed to in recent years. Harrison would go on to catch just 62 passes for 885 yards and eight touchdowns en route to a WR30 finish.

In general, Harrison's season was not terrible for a rookie. His eight touchdowns were great, and even his yardage total was respectable. However, Harrison's catch percentage of 53 percent and low target number were unacceptable.

The Cardinals' passing offense ran through Trey McBride in 2024. McBride earned 147 targets in 2024, and rightfully so, but that still leaves plenty of room for Harrison. In order for the Cardinals' offense to reach its full potential, it is generally accepted that Harrison's target number needs to be at least in the 140-target range.

The path for a larger target share for Harrison will take a commitment from the Cardinals' offensive coaches to get him the ball. Harrison's route tree in 2024 was limited. The offensive scheme did not provide Harrison or quarterback Kyler Murray with easy routes to get the wide receiver the ball. As such, many of Harrison's targets were downfield, which lent itself to a poor catch percentage.

Marvin Harrison Jr is going for 90/1,300/12+TD this year isn’t he. pic.twitter.com/cSInDxGFfy

— Snoog's Fantasy HQ (@FFSnoog) May 29, 2025

Just 68.1 percent of Harrison's targets were catchable in 2024. Additionally, Harrison was fifth in unrealized air yards. All this suggests that manufacturing better touches for Harrison, and increasing his volume accordingly, will result in a much better season. Expect the second-year wide receiver to bounce back in 2025.

DK Metcalf - Pittsburgh Steelers

2024 Targets Per Game: 7.2

DK Metcalf has never been a heavy target volume player, but his targets noticeably fell off in 2024 when fellow wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba emerged for the Seahawks in the second half of the season. Now in Pittsburgh, Metcalf has no obvious competition for targets at wide receiver. With Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback, Metcalf should re-enter the 130-target range he was once in.

2024 - Courtland Sutton

2025 - DK Metcalf pic.twitter.com/caAKiizpK3

— Skrip (@P2WFantasy) July 15, 2025

The Steelers have two quality tight ends in Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith, who will each vulture targets. Additionally, running back Jaylen Warren will receive his fair share of targets as well. However, none of those players occupies the same portion of the field as Metcalf. His target volume should be safe, and it would behoove the Steelers to feed the ball to their stud wide receiver.

Metcalf has been a WR2 in fantasy throughout most of his career. When he has hovered closer to 7.5 or eight targets per game, he has been a borderline top 15 wide receiver for fantasy. Given how heavily Rodgers targets his No. 1 wideouts, Metcalf should have success this season. He is going to be a safe WR2 with potential upside for more, given that he is highly talented and still in his prime.

Tyreek Hill - Miami Dolphins

2024 Targets Per Game: 7.7

After racking up at least 170 targets in each of his first two seasons in Miami, Tyreek Hill fell to just 123 targets in 2024. The absence of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for four games and a shift in offensive philosophy relegated Hill to a much lower target share than usual.

In what was seemingly an effort to protect Tagovailoa after his return from another concussion in 2024, the Dolphins employed more of a short passing game with running back De'Von Achane and tight end Smith. That left Hill and fellow wide receiver Jaylen Waddle without a chance to get open downfield, where they thrive.

Smith will be gone in 2025, and the Dolphins cannot reasonably expect to win by just feeding Achane in the short game. They will need to find a way to get Hill involved in the short and medium ranges of the field. If they do so, his targets will increase.

Hill used to receive a plethora of screens and quick passes in this offense. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel knows how to manufacture touches for the star wide receiver.

Many fantasy managers may be wondering if Hill is declining. After all, he is entering his age-31 season and has received heavy volume throughout his career. While a valid concern, it is hard to believe that a player who earned 171 targets and racked up 1,799 receiving yards just two seasons ago in 2023 is suddenly inept.

Imagine thinking Tyreek Hill is washed. Not me. Dude is about to remind yall who he is🚀

150+ targets incoming.
1500+ yards incoming.
8+ TDs incoming.

Bookmark it. I’m all in.

You can draft him as WR23 right now 🤯
pic.twitter.com/Wur2HUIKC2

— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) July 10, 2025

Perhaps Hill will not revisit the same heights he used to cruise to, but he has a chance to present great value in 2025 fantasy drafts. He is currently being drafted as a WR2, but he still possesses top-five upside. Even if his targets per game improve to nine, Hill will be a fantasy monster this season.

Calvin Ridley - Tennessee Titans

2024 Targets Per Game: 7.1

Calvin Ridley suffered from poor quarterback play in 2024. The Titans rolled with Will Levis behind center for most of the season, and he was unable to sustain drives with any sort of consistency due to turnovers and sacks. Ridley's targets took a hit, as you cannot earn targets if you are not on the field.

In his last two full seasons prior to 2024, Ridley earned 136 targets and 143 targets in Jacksonville and Atlanta, respectively. In both of those offenses, he did not have a significant contender for touches. Although the Titans signed Tyler Lockett, his days as a high-end producer are behind him. Ridley's role as the bona fide No. 1 remains unchanged.

Sleeper: Calvin Ridley😴

Going as the WR36 but….
2024 - WR28
2023 - WR18

Beat the ADP both years and now gets his best QB yet in Cam Ward

The situation is beautiful:
• No Comp for Targets
• Easiest WR Schedule
• Defense is bad = More throwing

I expect a Top 20 finish🤫 pic.twitter.com/rB0xmPBeMI

— Bryce DeGroat (@NFL_Convo) July 20, 2025

The Titans should also experience a quarterback upgrade in 2025 with Cam Ward coming to town. The 2025 No. 1 overall pick will go through his fair share of rookie growing pains, but he is likely to latch on to his top wideout early and often. If Ward is even marginally better than Levis, Ridley should see a boost in value.

Year 2 of the Brian Callahan era in Tennessee should also help Ridley. Callahan seemed to have trouble manufacturing touches for Ridley early last season. As the season progressed, the targets picked up. Callahan needs to ensure that his young quarterback succeeds. That will mean that his star wide receiver needs to receive touches. As such, Ridley should approach 130-plus targets once again in 2025.

A.J. Brown - Philadelphia Eagles

2024 Targets Per Game: 7.5

A.J. Brown's targets per game dropped off by 1.8 in 2024 from 2023. The Eagles' offense ran through Saquon Barkley and the running game, helping the team cruise to many victories. NFL teams do not typically replicate high-level dominance year-over-year. While the Eagles will be a Super Bowl contender in 2025, they are likely to need their passing game more than they did in 2024.

In his first two seasons in Philadelphia, Brown earned at least 145 targets and never finished lower than the WR6 in PPR formats. Brown got off to a hot start in 2024, but he quickly found himself injured. He was solid upon his return, but Barkley was beginning to run wild, and the Eagles did not need Brown's services as often.

All my research and reading have led me to believe that AJ Brown is the Ultimate WR Steal for Your 2025 Fantasy Football Draft.

🚨 AJ Brown is poised to be one of the best value picks at wide receiver in your 2025 fantasy football draft, and here’s why you *need* to target him!… pic.twitter.com/JhkLQpq9YH

— Big Draft Energy (@BigDraftersHQ) July 16, 2025

Brown is only 28 years old and still squarely in his prime. When the Eagles found themselves in closer games with Pittsburgh and Washington down the stretch of the 2024 season, Brown proved that he still has what it takes to be a WR1 in fantasy. Brown's chemistry with quarterback Jalen Hurts was on full display during those two games as he earned a total of 26 targets.

The Eagles' offense is essentially going to look the same in 2025. With a tough schedule and new expectations, NFL teams will give the Eagles their best shot every week. Look for Brown to bounce back in a big way this season. He has as good a chance as anyone to earn north of 140 targets in 2025. That type of volume will place him as WR1 with an extremely high floor.

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