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Jarod's mid-to-late round fantasy baseball sleepers from the AL Central in 2025. These upside hitters and pitchers are fantasy baseball value picks at their ADP.
With spring training games underway, fantasy baseball draft season will begin to kick into full gear. To get fully prepared for your drafts, be sure to check out each article in this series about fantasy baseball sleepers and draft values in the mid-to-late rounds.
In this piece, we will analyze five players -- one from each team -- from the American League Central who are value picks at their current ADP in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts.
Finding value is one of the main ways to achieve an edge over your league mates from the start. Maximizing return on late-round picks will drive success, and your fantasy squad will be humming along with the below players, while other managers' final picks will become waiver wire fodder in short order.
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David Festa, SP, Minnesota Twins
ADP: 337
(Update: Festa was optioned to Triple-A on March 16)
My first instinct was to put Willi Castro here, but even at pick No. 229, there's not a ton of value there. But if you need a bat at the end of your draft, remember that he's eligible at second base, third base, shortstop, and the outfield on Yahoo. His switch-hitting should also help keep him in the lineup more often than not, and he'll bat leadoff.
As far as David Festa is concerned, the righty had a rude welcoming to the big leagues last season, getting roughed up for 12 runs in his first two starts before being sent back to the minors.
However, when the 6-foot-6 hurler was recalled, things went much more smoothly. The former 13th-round draft pick made 10 more starts and pitched 54 1/3 more innings over the rest of the season, posting a 3.81 ERA (3.15 FIP), 1.25 WHIP, and a 20.4 percent K-BB rate.
David Festa's 5th Consecutive K. pic.twitter.com/9eFrczUKia
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 29, 2024
After allowing seven home runs in his first six appearances, he buckled down and yielded just two long balls over his final eight outings. Overall, the youngster finished with 77 strikeouts in 64 1/3 innings pitched.
If the 24-year-old were guaranteed a spot in the starting rotation, this call would be a no-brainer at his current price. Unfortunately, he'll have to battle Simeon Woods Richardson, and perhaps Zebby Matthews, for the final rotation spot this spring.
If he starts in the minors, expect his name to be called early as soon as one of the starters succumbs to injury or underperforms (looking at you, Chris Paddack). Speaking of the minors, he owns a 29.9 percent career strikeout rate and 11.12 K/9 in the minors, so although major league hitters are a step above, you know he's got good stuff. Keep an eye on the rotation battle this spring.
Lane Thomas, OF, Cleveland Guardians
ADP: 173
Look at Lane Thomas' final 2024 stat line, and you might think it looks pretty underwhelming, outside of the stolen bases, of course: .237 BA, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 65 R, 32 SB.
However, if you look under the hood, the meager final line was a result of two awful months -- April and August. He hit .164 (27-for-164) with just two home runs over those two months.
During the other four months of the season, the former fifth-round draft pick hit .276 (85-for-308), belted as many as seven home runs in September, and collected as many as 21 RBI in June alone.
A baseball season is full of ebbs and flows in productivity, but by simply avoiding those full-blown implosion months, the 29-year-old's final line is going to look much better.
He's proven he can do it before, as he is only one season removed from a .268 BA, 28 HR, 86 RBI, 101 R, 20 SB season in which the right-handed hitter recorded a .334 wOBA and 110 wRC+.
With a late-season uptick in power that I outlined in my September Power Surgers article, combined with better-than-league-average chase and contact rates, Thomas has the ability to improve in 2025, likely producing a season that lands somewhere between his 2023 and 2024 output.
Play No. 32 of 2024: Lane Thomas crushes a go-ahead grand slam in a winner-take-all ALDS Game 5 💥 pic.twitter.com/uSPU5ZtEAp
— MLB (@MLB) December 5, 2024
That means a solid average, 20-plus homers, and 20-plus steals while hitting in the middle of the Guardians lineup, which should provide plenty of RBI opportunities. This will put him in a position to easily outperform his depressed ADP.
Parker Meadows, OF, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 178
(Update: Meadows was placed on the 60-day IL on March 24, making June the most optimistic timetable for his return)
As with Lane Thomas, Parker Meadows endured a horrendous first month of the 2024 season, slashing .100/.222/.229 with a .212 wOBA and 34 wRC+, resulting in a demotion in early May.
Letting him work on some things in the minors seemed to do the trick. Upon his full-time return to the majors on July 5, the lefty hitter slashed .296/.340/.500 with a .359 wOBA and 137 wRC+ over 47 games (201 PA).
But it wasn't just singles; of his 55 hits over that stretch, 10 were doubles, five were triples, and six were home runs. He showed off some base-stealing acumen as well, swiping six bags during that time.
The former second-round draft pick also cut down on his strikeout rate, turning in a 20.9 percent strikeout rate down the stretch, compared to a 29.3 percent strikeout rate for his career up until that point.
Who is your biggest hitting breakout for the 2025 season?
Some of our staff picks...@EricCrossMLB: Garrett Mitchell@BCamara30: Parker Meadows@A_Smith_FS: Jordan Westburg@CableBoxScore: Kristian Campbell@Baseball_Jimbo: Christian Encarnacion-Strand@mdrc0508: Jung Hoo Lee
— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) February 10, 2025
The 25-year-old is expected to lead off for Detroit, which should prove lucrative from a run-scoring and stolen base standpoint, while his ability to hit for extra bases should afford plenty of RBI opportunities.
Note, there is some cloudiness surrounding his Opening Day status, as he recently suffered a nerve issue in his throwing arm, but there isn't a definitive timetable for return. Monitor his status closely, because if it doesn't resolve itself soon, it could jeopardize Opening Day and this prognostication.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Chicago White Sox
ADP: 291
I had a whole write-up on why Andrew Benintendi was a value pick, but he had to go and get hit by a pitch, fracturing his hand and is likely not returning until some time after Opening Day, so we'll take a look at another White Sox player (although I'll say that with the way Benintendi finished last season, it shouldn't be that hard to outproduce his NFBC ADP of 451).
With Andrew Vaughn's performance over his first four major league seasons, some might have forgotten that he's a former third-overall draft pick whose entire minor league career before he became a regular in the big leagues consisted of 55 MiLB games.
But he'll still only be 27 years old for most of the season and the way he finished 2024 may have been overshadowed by the White Sox's march toward the record books for having the most losses in a single season ever.
From September 3 through the end of the year, a period of 22 games, Vaughn slashed .303/.340/.483 with four home runs, a .355 wOBA, 133 wRC+, and a remarkable 93.9% contact rate on pitches in the zone.
Sure, the 2025 version of the White Sox offense will still limit RBI opportunities, but as I noted in my Post-Hype Sleepers article, Chicago's three-hole hitter finished with an xSLG, Average EV, Barrel%, and HardHit% all at 63rd percentile or better for the first time in his career in 2024.
If you're looking for a bat towards the end of your draft that can hit .250 or better with 20-plus home runs and 80 RBI with some upside given his pedigree, then Vaughn could be your guy. With an ADP of 291, there's little risk involved anyway if it doesn't pan out.
If you need more convincing, check out the article I mentioned in the previous paragraph, it might get you on board!
Andrew Vaughn! 💥 pic.twitter.com/i3F5Qa3Vzc
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) July 2, 2024
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Kansas City Royals
ADP: 112
Most Royals are fairly priced, in this author's opinion, although I really like Jonathan India as a value. I've already made the case for him in great detail in my Fantasy Infield Breakouts article, so check that out if you are interested in learning more about why India will break out (again) in 2025.
In this article, however, I will tell you why there is still a little meat left on the bone regarding the Pasquatch and his ADP.
First of all, we have yet to see what a full season looks like for the former 11th-round draft pick. Last year, he totaled 131 games, which was easily a career-high, but it was cut short due to a broken thumb that occurred during a collision.
The 6-foot-4 first baseman still managed to collect 97 RBI but was on pace for 114, which would have given him the fourth-most in baseball. The 27-year-old boasts a career 86.2 percent contact rate, a low 12.8 percent strikeout rate, and a hard-hit rate of 44.8 percent.
The left-handed slugger is expected to hit behind the aforementioned India and last year's American League MVP runner-up Bobby Witt Jr., and in front of nine-time All-Star Salvador Perez.
With a career barrel rate of 7.6 percent, it's hard to envision much more than a 20-homer season -- although some projections give him as many as 26 -- but all of what was just outlined should be plenty of contact and pop to keep piling up the RBI.
With his ability to put the bat on the ball at a high rate, don't expect a significant dip in average; instead, an improvement to his career .267 BA is probably more likely. Either way, he won't hurt your fantasy team's batting average.
He's a zero in the stolen base department, but the fourth-year big leaguer will be a four-category producer that you can grab around the ninth round of a fantasy draft who offers some upside if he can hit his most aggressive projections.
⚾ My Latest on @RotoBaller ⚾
2025 Top 10 Dynasty First Base Rankings
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 👑
- Buy Triston Casas
- More upside for Vinnie Pasquantino?#FantasyBaseballhttps://t.co/wINkWDezCx— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) February 10, 2025
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