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Jarod's post-hype fantasy baseball sleepers - breakout candidates for 2025 drafts. His fantasy baseball hitter breakouts with upside to target at a discount.
Every year, it happens -- some of the hottest prospect names get their shot at the big time, and while some live up to the hype, others fall flat for one reason or another. These guys enter the league with so much fanfare because of the talent they've displayed to the world already, but sometimes, it takes time to unlock that ability at the major league level. They're going up against the best of the best, after all.
In fantasy, identifying players who have underperformed in the past but have the potential -- and momentum -- to breakout is a way to unlock value in drafts, which in turn should lead to prosperity for your teams.
In this piece, we'll focus on five infielders in the 25-28 age bracket who could break out this year (breakout again, in some cases). Some people might refer to them as the "post-hype sleeper" crowd. Whatever you call them, you'll get them for a discount, and if they reach their true potential, your fantasy team will reap the rewards. Let's see who could break out in 2025!
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Jonathan India, Kansas City Royals
After a magnificent 122 wRC+ debut season in 2021 that earned Jonathan India NL Rookie of the Year honors, he’s been unable to replicate that success ever since.
The former first-round draft pick posted seasons of 95 and 98 wRC+ in 2022 and 2023, respectively, after injuries marred both campaigns, playing in no more than 119 games in either season.
Finally, in 2024, the right-handed hitter put together a solid year while remaining mostly healthy. The 6-foot infielder recorded a .248-15-58-84-13 line with a .333 wOBA and 108 wRC+ last season, but there were peripheral numbers that point to 2025 potentially being more productive.
The University of Florida product notched a career-best contact rate of 82.7 percent, leading to a better-than-average 19.6 percent strikeout rate. The 98th-percentile chase rate helped him to a strong 12.6 percent walk rate and a .357 OBP.
An xBA of .266 and xwOBA of .352 show that things perhaps should have looked even a bit better than they did in the end.
The 28-year-old makes a move from homer-friendly Great American Ball Park to cavernous Kauffman Stadium, which seems like a net negative change in environment, but Kauffman Stadium actually ranked third-highest in doubles production last season and holds the same overall "104" Park Factor for right-handed bats as GABP, which should work in India’s favor.
ANOTHER double for Jonathan India, with an RBI!
India now has eight multi-hit games in a row. That's the longest streak for a Cincinnati Red in 24 years since Chris Stynes had eight multi-hit games in a row in 2000! 🔥🔥🔥🔥@JonathanIndia | @Reds pic.twitter.com/VVVv6s5pQI
— FanDuel Sports Network Cincinnati (@FanDuelSN_CIN) June 29, 2024
India had a stretch of eight games in 2024, during which time he laced 11 doubles; while that type of ultra-hot stretch doesn’t come around often, it shows what kind of hitter he is and how the stadium could work in his favor.
Hitting in front of the likes of Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez should also be a boon to his fantasy stats.
It was said that he played through an ankle injury last season, but he had ankle surgery in October to clean it up and will be ready to go come spring. Look for a fully healthy India to handily outproduce his ADP of 250 in 2025.
Gleyber Torres, Detroit Tigers
It may sound cliche, but sometimes players just need a change of scenery. Gleyber Torres has spent his entire major league career playing in the bright lights of New York but will get a shot to prove himself in a much smaller market for the Detroit Tigers.
Perhaps with less pressure, the Venezuelan can relax and produce the way we all expected he would when he came into the league. The 2x All-Star had a phenomenal debut in 2018 with a 121 wRC+, only to follow that up with an even better 38-homer, 125 wRC+ season in 2019.
After a few seasons of falling short of expectations, Torres had a solid 2023 that led some to believe he was back to his All-Star ways, only to take a step back again in 2024.
However, while the final numbers overall were underwhelming, immediately following a midseason rest/benching, the right-handed hitter slashed .298/.365/.421 with a .344 wOBA and 126 wRC+ from June 28 through the end of the season.
Likewise, with his strikeout rate of 20.5 percent for the year (which was still better than average), if you look closer, he was able to reduce it to 17.2 percent after the June reset, and for the second consecutive season, he's been able to reduce his chase rate, ranking in the 92nd-percentile last year, which should, in turn, provide a solid OBP floor.
It's GLEYBER DAY!
And Like a Good Gleyber, Torres is There! pic.twitter.com/LufeNJEKvZ
— John Sterling Calls (@JSterlingCalls) October 30, 2024
Given all of this, there is reason to believe he's on the right track heading into 2025. Torres is on a one-year deal with the Tigers, so assuming he wants to get paid this offseason, there is even more incentive to produce for the entirety of the campaign, not just half of a season (although he was in a contract year last season, too).
Getting drafted as the 16th second baseman off the board, Torres could easily find himself within the top 12 at the position for fantasy by season's end.
Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros
We also have a former AL Rookie of the Year winner on this list, as the Astros' Jeremy Pena won the award in 2022 on the back of a 22-homer, Gold Glove season that was capped off with ALCS and World Series MVP awards.
Although his batting average improved in his sophomore campaign, the power took a major dip, belting just 10 home runs in 2023.
In an attempt to get the power stroke back, Pena made some swing adjustments prior to the 2024 season, and it led to improved home run and RBI totals, finishing with 15 (+5 year-over-year increase) and 70 (+18 year-over-year increase), respectively.
15th home run of the year for Jeremy Peña and the @Astros have a 10-spot. 💪 pic.twitter.com/imnKRYQ37b
— MLB (@MLB) September 7, 2024
The former third-round draft pick also increased his stolen base total from 13 to 20. 2024 also saw the youngster increase his contact rate for the second consecutive season while seeing a corresponding drop in strikeout rate for the second straight year.
One drawback is that with just a 5.4 percent barrel rate last season, it's hard to envision many more home runs, but if he somehow manages to get closer to the 9.6 percent rate he posted in his rookie season, then a 20/20 campaign could be in the cards.
The other negative is that he drew walks at just a 3.8 percent clip last year, which is going to cap his on-base potential and, in turn, will limit any sort of run-scoring or stolen base improvements. Still, with an offseason of work and heading into his prime, Pena has a good chance to outproduce his 169 ADP.
Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
There’s no question about Royce Lewis’ talent and potential; it's what made him the No. 1 overall draft pick back in 2017, and when he’s been in the lineup, he’s produced.
Staying in the lineup has proven difficult, though, as the 25-year-old has a lengthy injury history already. A torn ACL caused him to miss all of 2021, and then he tore the same ACL just 12 games into his MLB debut season in 2022.
Soon after his return in 2023, a hamstring injury sidelined him for over a month. Then, in 2024, a severe quad strain and groin tightness led to two separate IL stints, resulting in a total of only 82 games played.
The right-handed hitter has played about a season’s worth of major league games so far in his career (152) and has produced a .268-33-104-81-6 stat line with a .351 wOBA and 128 wRC+, backed up by an 11.0 percent barrel rate along with league-average walk, strikeout, and contact rates.
Rookie Royce Lewis set a new @Twins single-season record with his FOURTH grand slam of the season one year ago today, breaking the previous record shared by Bob Allison (1961), Rod Carew (1976), Kent Hrbek (1985), Kirby Puckett (1992), and @ToriiHunter48 (2007). pic.twitter.com/eYLviY170k
— The Twins Almanac (@TwinsAlmanac) September 15, 2024
He seems to have a flair for blasting grand slams, and don’t forget that the former first-rounder also blasted four home runs in six postseason games for the Twins during the 2023 postseason.
If he can steal a few more bases than expected, it would be an additional boost to his value. Given the injury history with his lower half, he’ll likely be limited in that category, but the California native did steal as many as 28 bases in 121 games during the 2018 minor league season, so he's got some wheels.
Lewis will come into 2025 healthy and has altered his physical approach in hopes of remaining healthy throughout the year. If he can stay off the IL, there’s a good shot he can outperform his 114 ADP.
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
Ok, I know it feels like we're reaching now, but hear me out! Like India and Lewis, Andrew Vaughn is a former top-5 draft pick (No. 3 overall, to be exact). His old scouting report had him with 60-grade power and noted that "he projects as a .300 hitter with 30 homers and 80 walks on an annual basis.
Surely, it factored into the White Sox's decision to bring him up to the majors for good after only 55 minor league games under his belt, but maybe he wasn't ready. The right-handed hitter has had some productive seasons to this point but has certainly underperformed expectations.
With four years of experience now, perhaps this is the year he finally takes a major step forward. His career contact rate of 79.8 percent is better than average (76.8 percent) and he owns a contact rate of 89.2 percent on pitches in the zone, also better than average (85.2 percent).
Below are Vaughn's xSLG, Average Exit Velocity, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit% percentile rankings from Baseball Savant, which show a smattering of blue his first three years in the league, but none of them registered below the 50th percentile.
For the first time in 2024, each of those stats ended at or near the 70th percentile:
Getting more granular, from September 3 through the end of the year, a period of 22 games, Vaughn slashed .303/.340/.483 with four home runs, a .355 wOBA, 133 wRC+, and a remarkable 93.9% contact rate on pitches in the zone.
So, is 2025 the year? A major problem for Vaughn has been his chase rate, which, at 32.3 percent for his career, is much worse than average (28.6 percent). This has been a limiting factor in the ability to get on base consistently, posting a career OBP of .310 with a below-average walk rate of 6.5 percent.
But with Vaughn signing a one-year deal with the Sox this offseason, like Torres, he too has an incentive for 2025 to be his best year yet. Given how he produced down the stretch in 2024, he's got the momentum, and simply being more patient will lead to more success overall.
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