5 Dynasty Fantasy Football Start-Up Busts: Overvalued Players to Avoid (2025)

June 23, 2025

Corbin's dynasty fantasy football start-up draft avoids. His top bust candidates for dynasty leagues, including Rome Odunze, Khalil Shakir, and more for 2025.

Like any product with market value, having a process for finding undervalued and overvalued items is essential. In the age of never-ending data sources, we can research potential values based on the market. One quick way to do that involves comparing rankings to the average draft position (ADP). Like any list and filter, it provides an avenue to dig deeper. The visual below shows the fantasy football players with a 20-spot gap in their ranking compared to the startup ADP within the top 100 picks.

We used the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) Dynasty ADP and compared it to dynasty rankings. The dynasty ADP uses mostly Superflex data to gather a large enough sample of startup drafts (50-60) over the past six months. When we further filtered by picks within the top 150 and players with a ranking of 20 or more spots below their ADP, we had the following list.

For context, the "Grand Total" section is the average of the ADP and ranking. Furthermore, we removed players who didn't have both (ADP and ranking). Let's examine five players to consider fading in dynasty startups with potential reasons why. We don't dislike the players; we tend to prefer others at their cost. 

Rome Odunze (WR, Chicago Bears)

FFPC Startup ADP: 51.4

Dynasty Rank: 75

Besides Ben Johnson joining the Bears, what else makes Odunze a top-50 pick in the FFPC dynasty startup ADP? Jokes aside, Odunze being listed as a fade might be the most concerning because of his prospect profile. Odunze goes in the fourth round around the likes of Tee Higgins, Rashee Rice, Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan, DeVonta Smith, and Zay Flowers.

The tier of Ladd McConkey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, and A.J. Brown goes just before Odunze. Besides the rookies, all the other receivers gave us more production and arguably better receiving metrics.

Odunze garnered a 19 percent target per route rate, behind DJ Moore (23 percent) and Keenan Allen (26 percent). Besides the volume, all the Bears receivers were inefficient in yards per route because of Caleb Williams and the offensive environment.

Moore and Allen averaged 1.60 yards per route, with Odunze at 1.41 yards per route. Interestingly, Odunze had the lowest catchable target rate (66 percent), with Moore at 81 percent and Allen at 74 percent. The Washington product garnered the most intended air yards (77) per game, ahead of Allen (74) and Moore (61), which might suggest Odunze's production regresses in his favor.

Odunze won in college via those contested targets, especially in man coverage. He was decent in his Average Separation Score against man coverage, above the league average, per Fantasy Points Data. It's hard to find reasons for optimism with Odunze other than projecting a step forward in Year 2 in an improved ecosystem.

Summary

I wrote about three rookie wide receivers to target, which included Luther Burden III as one of the cheaper options among the Bears receivers. Drafting Odunze in a startup closer to pick 75 feels more reasonable. Be cautious when investing in Odunze during startups.

However, some managers will argue for buying into the uncertainty. What if Burden earns more reps and becomes a primary target earner besides Moore? Furthermore, there’s a path for Colston Loveland to earn more targets, potentially taking away from Odunze. If Odunze only garners a 20 percent target share, he'll need to be efficient and likely won't earn value at his cost. 

Kyren Williams (RB, Los Angeles Rams)

FFPC Startup ADP: 56.7

Dynasty Rank: 102

Last season, it was Blake Corum. This season, it's Jarquez Hunter who could eat into Williams' workload. Well, Williams shoved those concerns in our face by taking on a career-high in carries (316) and rushing for a career-best in both yards (1,299) and touchdowns (14). That led to Williams ranking ninth in PPR fantasy points per game and seventh in expected points per game (EP/G).

Among the rushing leaders in EP/G in 2024, Williams, Jonathan Taylor, and Saquon Barkley were the only ones to have under four receiving EP/G. Taylor might be a closer comp to Williams, though Taylor has much better athleticism and explosiveness. Williams isn't a major tackle breaker, evidenced by his 2.6 yards after contact per attempt and 11 percent evasion rate, which combines broken and missed tackles.

He ranked 11th in high-value touches (68), tying him with James Conner. However, Williams accounted for the highest percentage of the team's high-value touches at 85 percent. He was ahead of Alvin Kamara (84 percent), Joe Mixon (83 percent), and Bijan Robinson (80 percent) as the only ones at 80 percent or higher in 2024.

Summary

You're probably wondering why we should be fading Williams in dynasty startup drafts. It's mainly because running backs lose value the most, and dynasty managers could attempt to sell during the offseason, especially if Williams signs an extension.

We'll want a piece of the Rams backfield since they've garnered over 300 EP/G as a team in each of the past two seasons. However, we would probably want to lean more toward selling than buying Williams in startups.

Derrick Henry (RB, Baltimore Ravens)

FFPC Startup ADP: 66.7

Dynasty Rank: 93

Welcome to the club of fading Henry in his ninth NFL season, and having him smack us in the face with the second-most rushing yards (1,921) and rushing touchdowns (16). Jokes aside, Henry is an outlier-type player. He set a career-high in fantasy points (PPR) at 338.4 in 2024, making us wonder when the unicorn and outlier will fall off.

Henry was uber-efficient with tons of rushing volume, though he lacked the receiving work, leading to RB2-type numbers in EP/G.

Henry's underlying metrics were ridiculous, evidenced by his 2.6 yards before contact per attempt and 3.3 YAC/Att in 2024. Hardly any defender wants to tackle Henry, with a whopping 14.9 percent broken tackle rate and 22 percent evasion rate with the Ravens. Among rushers with 100 rush attempts, Henry ranked ninth in evasion rate, tying him with Zach Charbonnet and Jerome Ford.

Summary

Henry's dynasty startup price should be closer to Kamara, though Henry is a unicorn. There's a chance Henry puts up a regressed version of 2024, something closer to 2023, where he ranks as an RB2. Those odds might be more favorable than Henry repeating 2024 and matching career bests across the board.

We would encourage dynasty managers to fade Henry or look to sell him for Flowers, Jordan Addison, Emeka Egbuka, or others within a round or two in the dynasty startup ADP. The worry about Henry and Lamar Jackson in a deadly rushing attack does seep into our thoughts. 

Khalil Shakir (WR, Buffalo Bills)

FFPC Startup ADP: 106

Dynasty Rank: 127

The Bills have been searching for a WR1 for Josh Allen after Stefon Diggs left last season. Shakir led the team in targets (100) and target rate (28 percent) among the receivers. He was Allen's first read on 24.9 percent of his targets, slightly ahead of Dalton Kincaid (20.9 percent) and Keon Coleman (19.7 percent). Can Shakir remain the top target earner for the Bills?

The team-level data suggests the Bills prefer to remain balanced and somewhat run-heavy in neutral game scripts. That's evident in the Bills being ranked 18th in neutral game script pass rate (54 percent) in 2024. That's similar to the 2023 numbers, with a 55 percent neutral game script pass rate (18th).

With Diggs on the team in 2023, he led the team in targets per route run (28 percent) and yards per route run (2.06). Shakir was close behind in yards per route (2.04) in 2023, yet only had a 15 percent target rate. Allen looked toward Diggs on his first read 35.2 percent of the time in 2023, ranking fifth among all pass-catchers.

Kincaid trailed Diggs in first-read target share at 19 percent, with Gabe Davis (15.1 percent) in third and Shakir garnering a lowly share of 9.2 percent in the 2023 season. Shakir had a solid season in Year 3, but let's examine some of his closest comparisons. Throughout Shakir's career, he averaged 6.4 receiving EP/G and just under eight PPR/G.

Shakir's top comparisons include Malcolm Mitchell, Jalen McMillan, Kenny Stills, Quintez Cephus, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Tre'Quan Smith, Rashod Bateman, and Davis. The latter two and McMillan might be the most notable, though the comparisons don't account for a player's role. For instance, Shakir primarily plays in the slot (73.1 percent) with a low 5.6 average target depth.

Bateman had his peak season in Year 4 last year (10.3 PPR/G), though he was uber-efficient with 3.3 fantasy points over expected per game (FPOE/G) via his nine touchdowns on 72 targets. We've chased the air yards for Davis in 2022 (1,424) and 2023 (1,223), but he peaked in Year 3 (2022) with 11.7 PPR/G.

Shakir arguably outproduced his comparisons and will continue playing on one of the best offenses.

Summary

Shakir shouldn't be a complete auto-fade at his dynasty startup price, going near Josh Downs, Jayden Reed, Tre Harris, Chris Godwin, and Courtland Sutton among the receivers. The Bills only drafted one receiver, Kaden Prather, in the seventh round. They also signed Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore as free-agent acquisitions.

That said, Shakir might have little competition, potentially giving him another bump in opportunities unless Kincaid finally becomes the top target earner. Shakir is fairly priced in dynasty startups, but his type of profile doesn't typically lead to league-winning seasons. 

Isiah Pacheco (RB, Kansas City Chiefs)

FFPC Startup ADP: 121.2

Dynasty Rank: 177

Pacheco missed nine games with a broken lower leg (fibula) last season. That aligns with Pacheco's poor advanced metrics, including 2.4 YAC/Att and a 4 percent evasion rate. For context, Pacheco averaged 2.9 YAC/Att and a 13 percent evasion rate in 2023.

Without Pacheco, the team turned toward Kareem Hunt and Carson Steele. Pacheco runs toward contact. He was hit at the line of scrimmage 45 percent of the time, aligning with what we see on film.

Hunt continues to lack juice as a veteran, with a 2.0 YAC/Att and a 6 percent evasion rate. Steele was a fun story and broke tackles at a decent rate (10.7 percent), but only had a 2 percent missed tackle rate, leading to a 12 percent evasion rate. There have been reports that Pacheco is adding weight and is in the best shape of his life.

Once Pacheco returned, he shared the Chiefs backfield with Hunt. Pacheco had a 40 percent rush share, with Hunt at 36 percent. Meanwhile, Hunt (5 percent) and Pacheco (4 percent) matched each other in target share during Weeks 13 through 18. The team also mixed in Samaje Perine as its third-down back, playing on 24 percent of the backfield snaps in the final weeks.

The Chiefs added Elijah Mitchell in free agency and drafted a sleeper rookie, Brashard Smith, in the seventh round. Smith had the fifth-highest RB Dominator (81 percent) and a decent 9 percent Receiving Yardage Market Share in 2024.

As a smaller back listed under 200 pounds, Smith had a 69th percentile Speed Score and the eighth-highest breakaway rush percentage (45.2 percent) during his collegiate career among the 2025 rookie running backs. Dare we say Smith could be the next Pacheco?

Summary

Pacheco's top comparisons throughout his career include Zac Stacy, C.J. Anderson, Chuba Hubbard, Jay Ajayi, Mitchell, Marlon Mack, and Lamar Miller. Pacheco was a seventh-round pick, and it raises concerns about him sustaining a lengthy fantasy-relevant career. Hubbard might be the most enticing, though his prospect profile and draft capital bump him up a tier in confidence during startup drafts.

The path to Pacheco's success involves him dominating the backfield snaps and opportunities, a step above his 2023 season. It's a good idea to fade Pacheco at his dynasty startup price unless he falls another two to three rounds. Or maybe the time off during the offseason allowed him to rest, recover, and train to become a better version of himself in Year 4.

We'll want a piece of the Chiefs backfield, but the trends have shown they prefer to mix in multiple running backs with Pacheco.   

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