RADIO
Pierre Camus answers burning questions that fantasy baseball players might have about the 2020 MLB season in regard to rule changes, draft strategy, hitter and pitcher values, and rookies.
Upon hearing that Major League Baseball was finally set to return to action and the fantasy season was back, a million questions popped in my head. Sadly, I forgot most of them by the next day so I'm left with just 30, coincidentally a nice even number.
Actually, my initial plan was to do 60 questions, one for each game of the new season, but that proved too ambitious. Instead, I'll honor the new active roster sizes with these 30 questions. Then again, if you add up the questions and answers together, it still makes 60... eh, let's not worry about it.
Numbers aside, here are the most pressing questions that fantasy managers might have before the 2020 season gets underway.
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Draft Strategy
Who benefits most from a 60-game season?
The biggest preseason ADP fallers right before spring training 1.0 was shut down include those with injury and/or playing time concerns. Studs like Justin Verlander and Giancarlo Stanton tumbled a round or two but now should move back to previous rankings. James Paxton has shot up about 100 spots in my rankings. Young pitchers who might have been on innings restrictions like Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk, Chris Paddack, Griffin Canning, and Lance McCullers Jr. are obvious winners too.
Who is hurt most by a 60-game season?
The fact that the season is now one-third its normal length means that end-of-year adjustments will be minimal. Those fringe prospects or stars-in-waiting with service time considerations who become September call-ups can provide a boost to fantasy teams down the stretch. Players like Austin Hays, Kyle Lewis, and Gavin Lux provided some pop down the final playoff stretch last season. Now, it's unlikely we will see late-season movement considering that the rosters will actually shrink as the season progresses. Those in deep leagues or AL-Only/NL-Only formats will have a harder time finding help later on as well. In other words, draft wisely.
Are starting pitchers devalued in a short season?
The prevailing wisdom among fantasy pundits was that grabbing a top-tier ace would be more important than ever relative to the previous few years. Aces are in short demand; only 15 pitchers broke the 200-inning threshold last year and early ATC projections had a whopping total of one pitcher posting an ERA under 3.00 this season (Jacob deGrom of course). Seven of the first 25 draft picks are typically starting pitchers and that shouldn't change. The drop-off after approximately pick 120 may be more pronounced now, however, as mid-rotation and end-of-rotation pitchers may see shorter outings. The cream of the crop may be more valuable than ever, so grabbing aces early is still a viable strategy. The middle rounds should focus more on bats, as streaming and plugging in relievers for ratios seems to be a better strategy.
Is this the year to punt steals in roto leagues?
There are two ways to look at it.
A) The gap between league leaders and everyone else will be minimal, so don't overpay for a specialized category if it hurts you in the power or average categories.
B) Stolen bases are in short supply already and this is going to be a sprint, not a marathon (to coin a phrase for the first time ever) so prioritizing speed is a must.
I lean toward the former approach, as I've always preferred to gather my SB from a variety of players in small bunches rather than putting all my eggs in one basket. For perspective, after 60 games last year, Adalberto Mondesi led MLB with 22 SB. Next was Mallex Smith, who had 14 steals along with a .191 average. The rest of the pack was largely muddled and many of the top base thieves were among the top draft picks because of their five-cat contributions (Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Christian Yelich, etc.) If you go pitching-heavy early then you may consider punting or taking a chance on a speedster to at least keep you out of the basement in that category. Otherwise, find balance in your lineup and don't worry about that area too much.
Do I avoid closer committees or punt saves?
Our staff had a variety of opinions on this subject. Generally, it's a good idea to get saves wherever you can. As with everything else, this year is a different beast. With so much bullpen turnover, fantasy owners tend to grab closers-in-waiting just in hopes of earning a handful of saves at some point during the season. There just isn't enough time for managers to mess with the fireman role trying to figure out who will lock down the job. My best guess is that we will be able to predict the saves leader for each club better than usual, so there's no need to avoid closers at any point as long as you don't overpay.
If my league drafted back in February or March, should we draft again?
Why wouldn't you? Back in March before Spring Training 1.0 was suspended, our RotoBaller Experts League voted on whether to go ahead and draft during the uncertainty of the approaching pandemic before it hit the U.S. or to wait. My thought process then: "They'll probably start the season in May, maybe June at the latest. What's going to change from now until then?" Ah, the good old days. We were so naive and innocent then...
While the early rounds shouldn't see a massive ADP shift, many injured players will be ready to go, prospects will see their debuts delayed (see below), and rule changes such as the universal DH (also see below) will affect many player values. Don't get me started on first-half/second-half splits and park factors! It's unlikely anyone is thrilled with their original team at this point so just call a mulligan and enjoy drafting a second time. That's the best part of the fantasy season anyway.
Rule Changes
What impact will the universal DH rule have in fantasy?
It goes without saying (but here goes anyway) that National League starting pitchers will see slightly inflated ratios as a result of facing another capable batter. Eight of the 10 highest Team ERA totals belonged to American League teams, with Colorado and Pittsburgh the only NL representatives.
Several NL batters will also get a regular gig now that another lineup spot has opened up. The crowded Reds outfield might have seen young stud Aristides Aquino start the year in the minors, but now he has a shot to contribute regularly.
What about the three-batter limit for relievers?
Normally, anything that affects middle relievers wouldn't be on the radar for fantasy leagues. We win and lose roto leagues with starting pitchers and closers, not the guys doing the dirty work in between. That was before 2020. We've already heard that organizations like the Dodgers and Brewers are planning to keep their starters on a four-inning limit for the first turn or two in the rotation. That could end up being 16% of the season.
We're going to see a lot more relievers in action than usual, so the plan to incorporate more arms for longer stretches along with the impending death of the LOOGY means that fantasy owners should react accordingly. The cream of the crop like Ryan Pressly, Seth Lugo, Drew Pomeranz, Dellin Betances, Colin Poche, Emilio Pagan, and Joakim Soria should be rostered in all 12-team leagues. Some other relievers could also emerge to have fantasy value without relying on saves or holds.
Who is helped by expanded rosters (30-man active roster to start the year, 60-man Player Pool)?
Many teams will opt to roll with a deeper bullpen along with some additional utility players, but that doesn't carry much weight in fantasy. The most intriguing aspect of the expanded rosters is the fact that some teams will start the year with top prospects on the roster rather than waiting for the traditional post-All Star break or September callups. In fact, several players who were just drafted a month prior to the new Opening Day could find their way onto the 60-player pool.
Mariners CEO John Stanton tells @710ESPNSeattle that he expects young prospects like Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and even this year's first round draft pick Emerson Hancock to be on 30-man "taxi squad."
— Greg Johns (@GregJohnsMLB) June 24, 2020
Players like Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic would have made for exciting second-half pickups and now they enter the conversation as late-round draft fliers.
Could there be players not on the 60-man Taxi Squads who will have fantasy relevance?
It's possible, as some teams elected to leave extra spots open in order to fill them later on. The Orioles took this to the extreme by picking only 44 players in their initial player pool. Some prospects could move their way up to active rosters, but by that point it's unlikely they will be able to make a big splash in fantasy leagues. This isn't the season for second-half speculation.
Does the extra-inning rule with a runner starting on second base matter?
Not really. If you think about it, extra-inning games don't end until someone scores anyway. This just might expedite the process a bit. Actually, I'm not sure what this rule really accomplishes. If you don't like free baseball, you're not a true fan!
Will the players be affected by not having crowds in the stands?
For the Marlins, there won't be any difference at all! *ba dum tss
The correlation between home attendance and team win percentage is fairly strong. Of the top 10 teams in attendance last year, half were playoff teams and only two had losing records.
Of course, if there's a causal relationship, it would be that winning leads to fans showing up. The lack of fans might neutralize a bit of the home-field advantage teams like the Cardinals and Cubs have, but it isn't likely to have a statistically significant impact that can be predicted in terms of performance. Anyway, park factors are still in effect now that we know teams are playing in their own stadiums. Don't worry too much about it.
Pitchers
Is Justin Verlander back to 100%?
If you believe his personal Instagram account, then hell yeah! He began throwing off a mound in mid-June and should ramp things up in recovery from his groin surgery. Not to speak on behalf of Mr. Upton's personal physician but it appears he will resume dominating hitters with no restrictions by the time the season begins. I have him ranked sixth among starters, 22 overall.
What about James Paxton?
Likewise, Paxton is likely to be in the Yankee rotation for the start of the year after dealing with back issues that required surgery. He has been throwing simulated games for well over a month now, so bump him back up your draft board. In fact, if the additional spin rate on his fastball proves as effective as Lucas Giolito last year, he could turn into a short-season pitcher MVP for fantasy owners.
What is the Dodgers rotation going to look like?
Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and David Price are no-brainers for the first three spots. It looked as if Alex Wood had the inside track on a rotation spot back in March; as long as he's healthy there is no reason he wouldn't claim one. Julio Urias is the best bet to earn the last spot and has some of the best upside outside the top-100 overall picks. Ross Stripling still gets love because of his 2018 season but he's likely stuck as a swingman or long reliever. Rookies like Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are still a year away from fantasy relevance unless numerous injuries pop up. Don't even think about Jimmy Nelson.
Are six-man rotations becoming a thing?
They sure are, at least for some teams. Once again, the Mariners are leading the pack here - they've already declared they will start with their own Hydra consisting of Yusei Kikuchi, Marco Gonzales, Kendall Graveman, Justus Sheffield, Justin Dunn, and Taijuan Walker. Keep in mind, the Hydra is not exactly known for its good looks.
Graveman's cutter never looked more fearsome...
The Angels are also deploying a six-man rotation, but that is mainly due to Shohei Ohtani's presence. The Dodgers easily could employ six arms out of the names listed above, but it looks like they will stay at five for now. Even if most teams stay with a five-man rotation, innings could be capped for many starters all year long.
Which closers should I target/avoid?
I'll pass this question on to our Eric Samulski, who provided a great explanation on how to approach saves in a shortened season. The biggest takeaway is that the top-tier closers that are trusted by their managers should be safer to draft at or slightly ahead of their ADP, while the fringe/committee closers should be avoided. That means Joe Jimenez > Nick Anderson. 🙁
Speaking of Rays, can I trust any Tampa starter?
Not really. No team loves tinkering with its staff and employing the "opener" strategy more than Tampa Bay. Guys like Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough saw their IP totals fluctuate each week and while they provided solid ratios, they don't necessarily move the needle in fantasy. Even Blake Snell is hard to trust based on his earlier comments regarding salary. On the one hand, you can't blame a guy for wanting to get paid, but now I wonder if he shows up and, if so, how much his heart is going to be into giving 100%. You should be fairly safe with 36-year-old Charlie Morton, but for what it's worth OOTP 21 simulated a 4.80 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 6-7 record for him. That's gotta mean something.
Hitters
Who are the biggest risers with the National League DH being introduced?
Players who now warrant a harder look in deep mixed leagues include: Jake Lamb, Austin Riley, Ian Happ, Jesse Winker, Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Tyler O'Neill, and Hunter Pence. For a comprehensive list of players who gain value, check out this article by Matt Wallach.
Really, we're all winners from not having to watch pitchers bat any longer. Just ask Padres fans or anyone who's ever had the misfortune to watch Joey Lucchesi try to take an at-bat.
Who in the Yankees outfield among Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Hicks is healthy?
Possibly all of them. Stanton's injury was simply a calf strain, so he should have no limitations. At least until his next injury.
Hicks is a different story, as he is recovering from Tommy John surgery last October. He has been throwing and batting recently, so he may be good to go.
Judge is the iffiest based on his injury type. He suffered an injury to the ribs and pneumothorax, which has taken longer to heal. He just began taking swings, so it's a step in the right direction but he may not be 100% by Opening Day. There is a great deal of risk with all of these players, most of all Judge, so draft accordingly.
Will Pete Alonso be a top-20 offensive player again?
Nobody's rooting against the Polar Bear to mash at the rate he did last year, but we need to tread carefully. There is a good possibility that he sees a drop in his 30.6% HR/FB rate. Power-heavy players are going to assume bigger risk over the shorter season anyway because they are prone to slumps and high strikeout numbers, along with lower averages. He hit a respectable .260 last year, but any decrease in performance could bring him closer to the middle of the pack among first baseman. For someone being drafted in the second round, that would be a massive loss of ROI.
Do I take Adalberto Mondesi or let someone else?
If you're in a points league, avoid him like the doorknob on a gas station bathroom. In four of the five major platforms, Mondesi is projected to finish as the 19th shortstop or worse. Let that sink in.
In roto, he can easily propel you to a win in steals along with strong power numbers at the position. Or he could slump terribly like he did in June and July of last year. His lingering shoulder issues aren't very reassuring either. Mondesi is currently going 37th overall in NFBC drafts, so if you're not the risk-averse type like me (see below) and want to secure speed early, go for it. I'll probably let someone else take him, for what it's worth.
Is Yasiel Puig going to sign somewhere?
It appears the Giants are still the frontrunners and rumors have them inking him to a deal very soon. That makes him a nice value at his current 186 overall ADP, especially now that the DH is in place for NL clubs. He would stay within the division to play more games against the Rockies and against his former club, the Dodgers.
Which hitters will be great draft values over 60 games?
Every time I discuss my philosophy of targeting safer players who provide a strong average and a high floor at a cheap cost, Pittsburgh outfielder Bryan Reynolds always pops to mind. He slashed .314/.377/.503 as a rookie along with 16 HR, 68 RBI, and 83 R. The Pirates won't be the best offense in the league, or the division, but he will hit at the top of the order with RBI man Josh Bell not far behind. Grab players like Reynolds, Jeff McNeil, Jean Segura, and Kolten Wong before the competition.
Rookies
Which top prospects have the best chance to make a difference on offense?
Before I name names, remember this caveat: many of the young studs who begin 2020 on MLB rosters may find themselves back in the minors by the time the fantasy playoffs arrive. Rosters shrink as the season progresses and with more teams in the playoff hunt, they may be less likely to rely on rookies.
That said, the top names to watch in fantasy this year are (in order): Gavin Lux, Jo Adell, Evan White, Dylan Carlson, Luis Robert, Carter Kieboom, Nick Madrigal, Ryan Mountcastle, Alec Bohm, Jarred Kelenic, Wander Franco, Julio Rodriguez.
Franco is the top prospect in MLB and the best dynasty asset, but his playing time at age 19 will likely be limited if he even takes the field for the Rays.
Which top pitching prospects can help in 2020?
As far as rookie pitchers, here are my top 2020 options, also in order: Jesus Luzardo, Nate Pearson, Mitch Keller, A.J. Puk, Brendan McKay, Spencer Howard, Dustin May, Casey Mize, Sixto Sanchez, Kyle Wright.
Luzardo's ADP is too rich for my blood, so I'm more likely to take a shot later on Pearson, Puk, or McKay.
Are 2020 draftees ready and able to help MLB teams already?
Not initially, but don't be surprised if some make their big-league debuts sooner than usual. Several have been added to their team's Taxi Squad already such as sixth pick Emerson Hancock (Mariners) and others like top pick Spencer Torkelson (Tigers), third pick Max Meyer (Marlins), or 10th pick Reid Detmers (Angels) could make an appearance later on. They aren't worth a roster spot in re-draft leagues but bear monitoring on waivers if their time comes.
What's the deal with Nick Senzel?
As with all injured players, he should have benefited from the extra rest time. He has been declared "ready to go" as of a month ago and is one of the players who now has a clearer path to at-bats with the new DH rule. He could be a steal outside of the top 200 picks.
Who's the better pick: Luis Robert or Victor Robles?
I'm rolling with Robles here. A lot of people are picking Robert as the presumptive AL Rookie of the Year, but he's a much bigger risk and is probably being overdrafted at 75 overall. Robles is usually taken just before him at 71 overall in the NFBC and isn't without warts himself. ATC projections have Robles hitting .265 and he is likely to start the year batting seventh, which would hurt his counting stats. In Robert's case, he is projected by Roster Resource to bat eighth and will be facing big-league pitching for the first time. Robert's SB upside isn't greater than Robles' and the difference would be negligible in such a short season anyway. Don't take on the risk with Robert that early - he may be a year or two away from fantasy stardom.
Aren't rookies going to be risky this year?
Aren't they risky every year? Don't you hate when someone answers a question with a question? It's almost like a non-answer, isn't it?
More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice
