RADIO
John Johnson's 2025 NFL Draft bold predictions. He top calls for the early rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft, featuring Tre Harris, Ashton Jeanty, Tetairoa McMillan, and more.
The 2025 NFL Draft really isn't that far away. And in the first round, there should be plenty of surprises. There will be a lot to cover in this one, so I'll keep the introduction a bit shorter.
Some of these moves will be motivated by teams looking to amend past mistakes. Some could be out of desperation. And yet others could be "copycat" moves, where a team realizes that taking a different philosophy that they saw another team follow would help them sustainably address positions of need.
So let's dive into my 10 biggest early-round calls and boldest predictions for the 2025 NFL Draft ahead of the 2025 NFL season.
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1. Jaxson Dart Gets Drafted Early In Round 1
I'm a lot higher on Dart than the majority of the fantasy football community. Often, opinions about players can catch on and become repeated louder and louder in various echo chambers on social media, convincing a significant number of people of their validity.
But the NFL has reportedly been higher on Dart for some time now, and at the most important position in the game, that likely translates to him being taken inside the top ten picks.
Nah bro, watch Jaxson Dart flip his hips to pin the flat defender down so he can throw the slot corner over the top.
Special combo of athleticism + genius to pull this off. pic.twitter.com/PWEEabo3uW
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) March 9, 2025
Just like last season, when quarterbacks Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix were considered by the fantasy community not to be worth choosing in the first half of the first round, the NFL is likely to once again be more aggressive than people expect.
Dart has a lot of excellent qualities and fits the mold of a first-round selection at QB, but he gets way more hate than he deserves, largely because his situation at Ole Miss wasn't great.
While many discredit his play as being a product of the system, it's important to remember that he had just one good reliable pass-catcher, Tre Harris, and a poor offensive line that allowed him to be put under duress by opposing pass-rushers constantly.
Jaxson Dart is finally gaining the steam he deserves.
He’s a top 3 QB in this draft class and should sit for a year and develop behind a veteran QB.
Arm talent + touch on the football downfield, he led CFB in yards per attempt (10.8)pic.twitter.com/oKm6I6SYnk
— Snoog's Fantasy HQ (@FFSnoog) January 24, 2025
It's also important to remember that Dart is just 21 years old. There has been an avalanche of posts and clips on X showing him making poor plays (that aren't always his fault), but he has plenty of time to develop. Not every QB coming into the NFL is 23 years of age or older like Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels. Young QBs can take time to develop.
Still, someone who's shown his level of talent at his age can be coached up. And the NFL knows this.
2. Tre Harris Drafted In Round 1 Or Early Round 2
The only thing I think will hold Harris back from being drafted earlier is his injury history, which is something I understand being nervous about. Harris has been criticized mostly for being slow and "just a decent route-runner", but the first point doesn't matter much, and the second one just isn't true. And the speed criticism is unfairly applied to players that people have already decided they don't like, for whatever reason.
Tre Harris is the closest thing to Puka Nacua in this year's draft class. He's so, so good after the catch. Always makes the right moves. Always fights for the first down. Tackle-slipping monster. He would easily be my WR1 in this class if it wasn't for Travis Hunter. pic.twitter.com/qFCuMJGtEO
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 18, 2025
Harris has elite ball skills, is a special route-runner that can develop his suite of separation skills even more, is historically good against man coverage, is fantastic after the catch, constantly breaks tackles and makes defenders miss (and consistently, too), has a nasty stiff arm, knows exactly how to change his direction and leverage defenders' positions to pick up extra yards, and sometimes just carries defensive backs on his back.
Tre Harris is an elite prospect.
-Elite feel for zone coverage lets him get WIDE open
-Immediately makes sharp turn after catch to get the best angle to run away from the defender
-Perfectly placed, NASTY stiff arm levels defender
-Only brought down when DB falls on his ankles pic.twitter.com/dbWIyMiB8b— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 18, 2025
Teams should recognize this, and realize that Harris can immediately become a target hog and the quarterback's best friend. His incredible efficiency against man coverage (the best in college football history in a single season) showed that it didn't matter who lined up across him in 1-on-1 coverage. They were probably going to get burned.
WRs in college football against Man coverage this season (min. 50 targets).
Tre Harris...lol pic.twitter.com/ZIukHsSLVT
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) February 5, 2025
And we saw a lot of evidence of this. He beat his coverage assignments in a variety of ways, on nearly every possible route, and in the open field as well. A significant portion of his elite yards per route run metric was after the catch as well, but interestingly, he often set up the DBs to fail on his routes so he could beat them yet again with the ball in his hands.
Tre Harris is so slept on. This play is absurd. Varies his step pacing, stutter step, fakes a break to the left, hard stab foot perfectly placed in DB's lap, creates lightning quick separation, catches the ball, takes angle to beat 2, then a 3rd defender. pic.twitter.com/IsQF2aTdtm
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 18, 2025
The NFL should recognize this. Had Harris not been injured, he could have turned in an incredible season and rocketed up draft boards. He dominated every team he played against. Even in his final game of the season, when he got hurt in the second quarter, he caught a 41-yard touchdown on one of his only targets. He's a fantastic prospect.
3. Tetairoa McMillan Falls Past Pick 10
There are players the NFL is higher on than consensus fantasy football rankings would make you think, and there are those who they are lower on as well. McMillan is one that the NFL reportedly isn't so excited about.
He's praised for his movement skills (for his size), but questions about his top speed, separation abilities, and consistency could make him fall, with teams with top-10 picks prioritizing other position groups in an overall weak WR class.
#Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan private workout numbers, per source:
• HT: 6041
• WT: 213
• 40: 4.52 (Scout 1) / 4.55 (Scout 2)He didn’t do any jumps or shuttles, but did run routes today for scouts.
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) March 17, 2025
Here's my logic. The Tennessee Titans take a QB at pick one. The Cleveland Browns select EDGE Abdul Carter. The Giants go QB. New England takes WR/CB Travis Hunter, Jacksonville chooses a pass-rusher from this stacked class, and the Raiders choose RB Ashton Jeanty. The Jets go offensive tackle or surprise everyone and take a QB (probably Jaxson Dart).
The Carolina Panthers, with a horrific run defense in 2024 not far behind them, go defensive tackle. The Saints, who already have Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, probably avoid picking a WR, and the Chicago Bears load up the offensive line with their first-round pick or select a running back like Omarion Hampton.
Not unreasonable.
4. Las Vegas Raiders Draft Ashton Jeanty
Picking a running back in the top 10 in the NFL Draft isn't a popular move for teams, and rarely does it work out. Though the Detroit Lions had success picking RB Jahmyr Gibbs here, there are plenty of examples in the last 15 years, like running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley, where a back was chosen early in the first round, and things didn't work out with their first team long-term.
The problem is that often teams have other glaring issues that they need to take care of. Addressing a more important position of need that tends to have a longer shelf life in the league, like quarterback or offensive lineman, is often a better plan. Or one that's more immediately impactful, like pass-rushers.
ASHTON JEANTY 61-YARD HOUSE CALL 📞🔥
(via @BroncoSportsFB)pic.twitter.com/C9lroNMQog
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 24, 2024
Jeanty fits the "Raider Way" by being extremely durable and tough and handling a huge workload. And Las Vegas could be motivated by last season's absolute failure of a backfield rotation.
5. Bears Pick RB At Pick 10
Chicago's new head coach, former Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, understands the importance of having two skilled running backs in his backfield and could opt to take an RB like Omarion Hampton in the first round.
As it stands, picking RBs early isn't always the best idea, as was described above, but Johnson likely doesn't want to roll with just D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson as his top RBs into 2025.
It makes sense, as the Lions selected Gibbs very early in the 2023 NFL Draft, and that's worked out very well so far. They've had one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL.
6. Seattle Again Refuses To Build Offensive Line
This shouldn't necessarily come as a surprise to anyone who knows just how incompetent Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider is. His refusal to ever invest heavily in the offensive line has clearly shown up on tape and on the stat sheets again and again. Yet he makes terrible picks repeatedly in the first round, and just... keeps his job.
Me getting ready for John Schneider to “draft o-line” again this yearpic.twitter.com/on3tvx7mSE
— Joel Smith #Seahawks (@joelsmith) March 11, 2025
Seahawks fans will continue to languish as Schneider keeps selling them the promise of "fixing the team" only to not fix the team. And he'll laugh all the way to the bank with his massive paychecks watching quarterback Sam Darnold get obliterated by pass-rushers again and again.
7. New York Jets Select Quarterback In First Round
Despite signing quarterback Justin Fields to a two-year, $40 million contract, the Jets could opt to select a QB like Dart with their seventh overall pick in the first round. New York's clearest position of need is still QB. I'm not convinced Fields is the long-term solution here, and even if he is, there's really no one on the depth chart behind him that can run a functional offense.
.@MelKiperESPN explains why he has Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart going No. 9 overall to the Saints 😯 pic.twitter.com/2wOLx9f51v
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) March 18, 2025
ESPN NFL analyst Mel Kiper thinks they'll go to the New Orleans Saints, but I think they could get beat out by the Jets. Perhaps the 2024 NFL Draft's most puzzling move, which featured the Atlanta Falcons selecting QB Michael Penix Jr., will inspire other teams to start picking QBs earlier even when they don't "need" them, considering that Falcons QB Kirk Cousins was eventually benched for Penix.
Having "too many" good quarterbacks on your roster is a good problem to have, and in case of injuries, can save your season. And new head coach Aaron Glenn would be wise to try to find a long-term solution for the position, since things could go sour very quickly in case of a Fields injury or if he simply underperforms.
8. Pittsburgh Doesn't Select Quarterback In Round 1
The Steelers are desperate for a QB right now, and their attempted courtship of QB Aaron Rodgers is not only pathetic but a bad move overall. With few options left on the table, the Steelers could try to aggressively trade up to get a QB in the first round, eventually intending to reach for someone like Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart.
However, having been denied by the Jets already, the Steelers would face the same position the Las Vegas Raiders did in 2024, where they put all their chips on the table in an attempt to select Penix, only to be outbid by a team selecting before them.
It's kinda funny that basically the entirety of Jaxson Dart's rise up draft boards has taken place as soon as he stopped playing football:
(I know, the Senior Bowl, but still..) pic.twitter.com/HH4ZaAfYIR
— Sam Monson (@SamMonsonNFL) March 18, 2025
The rise in Dart's fantasy draft stock shouldn't come as much of a surprise, as it's long been reported that he's thought of much more highly by NFL teams that he is by most fantasy football managers. And it's with good reason, because he's my QB1 of this draft class above both Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders.
9. Steelers Try (And Fail) To Trade Up For QB
Read the above section. Pittsburgh could be blindsided by the Jets, or another team like the aforementioned Saints with Dart, and lose their last chance at picking up a good QB before the 2025 NFL season starts, leaving them with almost zero chance of having a solid offense in 2025.
Jaxson Dart has Legitimate NFL Traits
➖77.7% Adjusted Completion Percentage
➖7.1% Big Time Throw Percentage
➖11.9 Average Depth of TargetALL of these Advanced Analytics were BETTER than Cam Wards..
➖Age: 21
➖Size: 6’2, 225 lbsFuture 1st Round Pick in the 2025 NFL Draft pic.twitter.com/7RcgeOSLjl
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) March 16, 2025
This idea that Dart isn't deserving of a first-round pick in the league is simply absurd. He produced very well with very little. His offensive line was emphatically not good at Ole Miss, and his WR1, Tre Harris, was injured for a significant portion of the season, yet in the eyes of the fantasy community, all of Dart's "bad" plays are on his shoulders, and he doesn't get a pass for them.
I'm not sure why. There's zero chance this guy falls out of the first round.
10. Washington Commanders Select WR In First Two Rounds
Despite trading for former San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. recently, there's a good chance Washington doesn't take any risks of having very little depth at the position again, due to possible injuries that could occur to Samuel or WR Terry McLaurin, and opt to choose a receiver with either their first or second-round picks.
An offense set up for success usually needs to have two long-term answers at wide receiver, or one excellent receiver and one great pass-catching tight end. Samuel doesn't have much, if any, of his prime left, as he's now 29 years old, and McLaurin will turn 30 before the 2025 season starts. Not great. The age of this group could become a problem for the Commanders much sooner than people expect.
https://t.co/6vt4cKrVdO
He's amazing. Like a faster Amon-Ra St. Brown. Kid is gonna be great in the NFL and a massive steal in fantasy football— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 18, 2025
They really, really should get someone like Jaylin Noel. There are plenty of good receivers in this class that could fall into the second round.
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