RADIO
We once again have another fantastic field set to take on the Tom Weiskopf masterpiece at TPC Scottsdale for the always exciting Waste Management Phoenix Open. Many players in the field will be operating on a short prep week coming off an extra day staying in Pebble Beach, but there is a little doubt that they will be able to get primed-up and ready to go in front of the massive herds of people in the desert.
In this article, you will find my TourPicks Top 10 Power Rankings for Waste Management Phoenix Open, which provides a first look at the players who I believe are ready to make a significant impact and play well next week. It should come as no surprise that many of these players listed below are favorites next week, but I put some serious thought into who I believe the course and event set up best for based on stats, course history, and, of course, motivational narratives.
I hope that these rankings will become a staple in your weekly preparation and the place where you start your research for the week. I have carefully evaluated each player in the field to project course fits and expected results in an attempt to give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping professional golf. In addition to my Top 10 rankings, I will provide a brief summary for each player to give some reasoning behind their rankings. As always, thank you for your support and I hope you can put these rankings into proper use for The Farmers Insurance Open.
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#10. Byeong Hun An
Benny An makes his first appearance in the TourPicks Top-10 this season in a ranking that will likely not completely line-up with the odds board. But I'm a believer in his game, and An has been one of the best in the entire field Off-The-Tee in the last 12 months. He had a decent performance at Pebble beach, but nothing like his scorching hot start in Hawaii where An finished 4th at the Sentry and lost in a playoff to Grayson Murray at the Sony Open.
He has been a top three player in the entire field OTT in his last 24 rounds played, and it is certainly a particular skill set that I'm in honing in on this way as a huge advantage. An has not been a part of the field in this event the previous two years, but before that he played great from 2017-2020 in which he finished top-23 in every start with his best finish being a T6 in 2017.
#9. JT Poston
It's simply getting a bit ridiculous right now. The run that James Tyree Poston has been on is just insane. After three days at Pebble Beach, he once again sits inside the top-20 on the leaderboard. He's finished inside the top-20 now in eight of his last 11 starts on the PGA Tour. His putter remains a weapon, only losing strokes with the flat stick in 1 of those 11 starts, proving to be one of the most consistent rollers of the rock in the game.
He has played the WMPO for five consecutive years with his best finish coming in 2021 with a T11. That said, he has never been the caliber of player and carried the form that he has into the year 2024. If there is one area he could use improvement, it would be Off-The-Tee. He ranks 12th in the field in strokes gained approach and 2nd in putting over his past 24 rounds played. DataGolf currently has Poston ranked as the 12th best player in the world, his highest ranking ever.
#8. Max Homa
Max Homa leaves his beloved California for a trip to Scottsdale this week after a couple of disappointing performances in his home state. He was, dare I say, pretty awful at Pebble beach. Homa lost strokes Putting, on approach, and off the tee last week. This makes back to back starts with Homa lost strokes to the field with his irons which is the reason I don't have him ranked higher this week.
Homa has managed to make every single cut in the last five years at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, but his best finish was a T6 in 2020 and hasn't really done anything noteworthy to make me believe this is a course that suits his skill set. Homa ranks 5th in the field in strokes gained Off-The-Tee in the last 24 rounds played which he will need to propel him this week to a good finish if he continues the shakiness with the putter and short irons.
#7. Wyndham Clark
Why not go right back to the well with Wyndham Clark? After switching to a new putter at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he gained nearly +5.5 strokes putting Saturday on his way to a historic round at Pebble Beach. At this point, he has put the early season rust, which was coupled with rumors that he was joining LIVGolf behind him, and appears ready to pick right back up where he left off last season.
Clark put together the best professional round in the history of Pebble Beach and looked to be completely locked-in. A couple of putts down the stretch that were left inches short kept him from the coveted 59 number. Before that round at Pebble beach, his previous best round as a professional came a few years ago at TPC Scottsdale.
As the sun was doing down and the desert was cooling off, @Wyndham_Clark brought the heat, firing a career-best 61 to take the #WMPO lead: https://t.co/kslkkTeK68 pic.twitter.com/UoSYbGutAn
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 31, 2020
#6. Sam Burns
Normally one of the more volatile players on Tour in terms of performance variance, Sam Burns has been remarkable consistent of late. Since the late summer of 2023, Burns has eight top-20 finishes in his last eleven starts on the PGA Tour. He nearly won the Amex a few weeks ago, and after an incredible Saturday round at Pebble beach this past weekend, he got himself into contention again and inside the top-10 after 3 days.
Burns struggled in his early appearances in the desert at TPC Scottsdale, but really figured things out last year in route to a T6 finish that saw him gain strokes across the board. He can really go low on any given day, but his ability to mitigate the stretches of bogeys have been a huge help lately. With three par 5's on the card this week, all of which are reachable, Burns should be licking his chops as he holds one of the best eagle rates of any player on Tour.
PGA Tour
Most 36-hole leads/co-leads since the start of the 2019-20 season:
11 - Scottie Scheffler
7 - Sam Burns
6- Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm— Steve Bamford (@Bamfordgolf) February 3, 2024
#5. Jordan Spieth
Here is what I have learned about Jordan Spieth throughout his career, his iron play tends to come and go in waves. When he is dialed in, a win, or at least a very solid performance, is usually coming soon. Through the first 3 days at Pebble beach, he gained more strokes on approach than in any other major stat category. The same thing happened at the Sentry a few weeks prior. The iron play has turned a corner, and Spieth-backers are hoping to find that magic with the flat stick which often propels him to victory in the end.
In the 2023 edition of the WMPO, Spieth gained nearly +8.5 strokes on approach on his way to a T6 finish. The putter has not been overly positive at this event in the past, but in my opinion Spieth is at his best when the greens are lightning quick which is exactly what is typically seen at TPC Scottsdale. If he can continue to strike the ball efficiently, he should be able to find himself firmly in contention this week.
#4. Justin Thomas
Consistent, repeatable, and reliable iron play has Justin Thomas back on top of his game and wide eyed with a laser-like focus on a resurgent 2024 campaign. He has been awesome at TPC Scottsdale, finishing in a tie for 8th place in 2022 and a solo 4th place finish last year in 2023. Thomas did not gain strokes putting in either year, but gained over 12 strokes in both tournaments from Tee to Green!
I have watched him closely, and the occasionally "wipey" iron shots that were his kryptonite last season aren't showing up nearly as much lately. His tempo and confidence has returned, and when it does, he consistently leaves himself 10-20 feet for birdie as much as any player in professional golf. Thomas has a world-class short game and possesses a skill set to get him out of trouble upon the occasional miss-fire, and he's been avoiding bogey at an incredible rate to start the year.
Justin Thomas bogey avoidance on PGA Tour --
2023: 1 bogey-free round in 72 rounds played
2024: 3 bogey-free rounds in 7 rounds played
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) February 3, 2024
#3. Viktor Hovland
After a hot start on his opening 9 holes at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, I think the lack of tournament reps may have bitten Viktor Hovland as he began to fall off the leaderboard and looked a bit rusty. Through his first 3 rounds, Hovland lost -3.5 strokes on approach, normally the strength of his game which struck me as concerning. That said, rumors were circling that he was looking fantastic as was in great form with his preparation as news broke that he shot the course record at Monterey Peninsula leading into the tournament.
This was one of the first events where I saw Viktor Hovland play when he was invited as an amatuer dawning his collegiate Oklahoma State gear. In recent years, he has struggled to figure out the secret to TPC Scottsdale. In his last 3 starts, his best finish has been a T42 and he has two missed cuts in that span as well. We'll see if he can get his year started off with a bang in Arizona!
#2. Xander Schauffele
I would argue that no player has hit the golf ball consistently better in 2024 than Xander Schauffele. We're in "no rest for the weary" territory as Xander is now playing his 5th tournament in six weeks to start the season. He leads all players in the field in total strokes gained this season after posting three top 10 finishes in January.
With the WMPO on deck, Schauffele should feel as prepared as any player to finally grab victory by the horns. He has been nothing short of great at TPC Scottsdale, posting top-20 finishes every year since 2018 at this event. He has gained strokes on approach in every one of those starts during that span, which is a similar story to how his game is trending this season. The extensive prep and tournament reps he has put in this season leading up to this event have him primed and ready for a win.
#1. Scottie Scheffler
He's going for the three-peat at TPC Scottsdale this week, and two-time defending champion at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Scottie Scheffler, was an easy choice at number one this week. Scheffler struck the ball really well around Pebble Beach, but was once again plagued by an inability to hole 5-10 ft putts on a Saturday that saw him lose significant ground on the field.
The familiar greens and atmosphere in Phoenix should be just what the doctor order. Scheffler has his best putting performances in each of the past two seasons at this particular event. He gained over +4 strokes putting here in 2023 and +6.5 strokes putting in 2022. It's been nearly 8 months since he last gained strokes putting in a PGA Tour event with shotlink data.
TPC Scottsdale is a perfect course setup for Scottie where he can lean heavily on his prowess off the tee and with his irons. If he is once again able to parlay those assets with a better than field average, he has a phenomenal chance at the three-peat. He's still the best player on Tour in my opinion, and the PGA Tour has been desperately hoping one of it's stars will hoist a trophy in 2024. They have a great chance for just that to happen this week in Phoenix. Scheffler wants the throne.
Thanks again for reading and we'll be back next week with Power Rankings on Sunday night for Riviera!
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