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Bay Hill Club & Lodge provided the most stern test of the year for the game's best players, but they'll need to shift to focus quickly to the extremely volatile TPC Sawgrass in what amounts to the biggest purse of the season. Welcome to The PLAYERS week! This tournament is annually one of the most difficult to predict due to the severe penalty for a minute miss-step, but ultimately rewards those in full control of the irons who play aggressively.
In this article, you will find my TourPicks Top 10 Power Rankings for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which provides a first look at the players who I believe are primed to make a significant impact and play well next week. It should come as no surprise that many of the players listed below are favorites next week, but I put some serious thought into who I believe the course and event set up best for based on stats, course history, and of course motivational narratives.
I hope that these rankings will become a staple in your weekly preparation and the place where you start your research for the week. I have carefully evaluated each player in the field to project course fits and expected results, in an attempt to give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping golf. In addition to my Top 10 rankings, I will provide a brief summary for each player to give some reasoning behind their rankings. As always, thank you for your support, and good luck.
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#10. Hideki Matsuyama
Few may remember a scorching opening round in 2020 that left Hideki Matsuyama atop the leaderboard by himself before the 2nd round and event was ultimately called off during the COVID pandemic. Matsuyama's ability to have surgical precision with his ballstriking at times coupled with the fact that he is one of the best Par 5 scorers on the PGA Tour make TPC Sawgrass an ideal setup for him.
A historic final round a few weeks ago at Riviera Country Club where he ended up winning the Genesis Invitational was exactly what we have come to expect from Matsuyama over his career. One-handed finishes to 2 ft happen on the regular. He's also been incredible Around The Green this season in what is a very underrated part of his game and will definitely be helpful this week with the small greens at TPC Sawgrass. Nobody gets red-hot like Matsuyama and he kept that momentum rolling last week at Bay Hill!
A strong opening round for Hideki Matsuyama 💪
He finishes his first round with a share of the lead at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. pic.twitter.com/WMbkJ0cq4Y— Golf Channel (@golfchannelhd) March 8, 2024
#9. Justin Thomas
All signs have pointed to a Justin Thomas resurgence in 2024, and I believed the hype, but I still see some of the same careless mistakes that cost him last year creeping up. He tends to have a snap hook off the tee box which will lead to big trouble around TPC Sawgrass unless he can get it fixed in short order.
He still continues to be one of the best in the game with his short irons though, and the 2021 PLAYERS champion has been excellent throughout his career at TPC Sawgrass. I know he can make enough birdies. It's going to come down to whether he can effectively avoid making a big number. If so, he's the prototypical player for this type of golf course.
#8. Sam Burns
Sam Burns is currently ranked 18th in the Official World Golf Rankings but he's one big-time win away from being a top-5 player in the world. Burns has been playing amazing and started off his opening round at Bay Hill, which is one of the most difficult tests on the PGA Tour schedule, by making an astonishing 8 birdies. He's a player who can dismantle any golf course on the world when in form.
The results at this course in particular have not been amazing, but I love the fact that he's won twice in Florida in his career, both times at Innisbrook for the Valspar Championship which shares similar greens and characteristics with TPC Sawgrass. He was able to figure out the Pete Dye designed Austin Country Club last year where he won the Match Play. Is he ready to take the next step to becoming one of the best in the game? This is a big week to find out some answers for Sam Burns.
#7. Jordan Spieth
It felt like the entire golf betting community was all over Justin Thomas at the Genesis Invitational, which felt like a culmination point of emphasis on his return to being one of the best in the game. It went poorly for all of us, he bottomed out and missed the cut...terribly. Thomas lost strokes in all four areas and his West Coast swing which started with so much promise ended on a sour note.
Now Thomas is back in Florida, where he lives, and spends the majority of his time practicing. We should not be quick to forget how high we were on his form before one bad start where he was humbled by the difficulty of Riviera. Thomas can utilize his magical ability around the greens to often get himself out of trouble, and should be well suited on these tight Bermuda lies. He needs to get back to avoiding and mitigating bogeys if he wants to find himself in contention this week, but I am excited about his chances. Tracking Spieth is always a roller coaster experience of highs and lows.
Every time I look up, Jordan Spieth either has a 10-foot birdie putt or a 30-foot par putt. There's no in-between.
— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) March 8, 2024
#6. Will Zalatoris
After his last two tournaments at the Genesis Invitational and Arnold Palmer Invitational, I think it is safe to say Will Zalatoris is back in peak form and once again gearing up for Major season. What better place is there to max out the engines than The PLAYERS Championship?
Zalatoris flashed his brilliance with his iron play at Riveria Country Club to the tune of a +5.2 strokes gained approach week. The more pleasant surprise for Zalatoris backers has been his progress with the putter since switching to the long broomstick style on the greens. His confidence is back and he looks like a man on a mission for greatness and WINS.
#5. Collin Morikawa
This is probably my biggest reach in the Power Rankings, especially if you happened to watch round 2 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational where this player simply looked lost. But I love the chances for Collin Morikawa at TPC Sawgrass, which is a golf course setup that is much friendlier to his particular skill set and strengths.
He stormed out of the gates last year at The PLAYERS and was the first round leader. He also led all players last year in strokes gained approach at this tournament. He can really leverage his ability to hit his wedges as close as anybody and his accuracy off the tee is heavily rewarded. The distance won't be a hurdle at TPC Sawgrass for Morikawa and I feel like we could be in store for a peak performance at the 2024 PLAYERS.
#4. Viktor Hovland
The slow start to 2024 for Viktor Hovland continued at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and he seems like a player who is currently searching for answers. He said so himself when asked last week at his press conference as to why he is doing so much tinkering and changing swing coaches so often, "I have a lot of questions."
It's not something you necessarily want to hear from a player who was seemingly on top of his game to end last season and in complete control. His proximity with his irons has been off, but I'm always drawn back into Hovland for two reasons. His talent is immense and this guy is a stone-cold killer when in contention and has proven to be a closer. The PLAYERS will certainly be a place where he is looking to kickstart his 2024 campaign.
#3. Xander Schauffele
Xander Schauffele has been intently building and progressing toward victory in 2024. He has arguably been the most consistent top-end player on Tour and appears ready to break through and capture a win soon. He put the new Callaway clubs in the bag this year and we have seen a big uptick in performance, particularly on his approach play.
Schauffele finished in 2nd place at The PLAYERS back in 2018 and seemed to have TPC Sawgrass figured out. Then...he proceeded to miss the cut in each of his next three appearances at this event. His form is just too good to pass up right now, and he probably has the least amount of question marks about his current game of any of the top players.
-2, 70 on Friday of the Arnold Palmer Invitational for Xander Schauffele. ✅
Can't really complain with what I watched today. Irons still weren't amazing but they were better than yesterday, and he drove it very well.
Onto moving day. 👀
(Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images) pic.twitter.com/zrK5iX5aoS
— Xander Schauffele Legion (@XanderLegion) March 8, 2024
#2. Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy is set to tee it up for his third consecutive week on the PGA Tour. It's hard to characterize the first couple of weeks as anything other than frustrating for the #2 ranked player in the world. He worked diligently on his putting after hours with Brad Faxon at the Arnold Palmer Invitational which seemed to temporarily pay dividends, only to see his iron play slip in the 2nd round.
Rory has mentioned in the past that when this event moved to March on the PGA Tour schedule, the course plays much softer and he is able to hit Driver substantially more which is clearly his biggest weapon in the bag. The 2019 champion from The PLAYERS is looking to put together all the pieces for a repeat performance in 2024.
#1. Scottie Scheffler
I know it. You know it. Everybody knows it. There is no player worthy of unseating his spot at the top. He continues his run as the best ball striker on the planet by a wide margin, showcasing that once again on full display during the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He won in runaway fashion and looked to be effortlessly brushing in the 5 foot putts that had given him nightmares recently.
Next week would have been a full year since his last win, had the world #1 player not sealed victory at Bay Hill. He also of course won the the 2023 edition of The PLAYERS in a completely dominant fashion and will be looking to rekindle some of that magic for 2024. It's the same story every week and if he can finally figure out that flat stick, no player is more ready to capitalize for a massive win. Will it be the mallet or the blade? We aren't sure, but this guy just needs to finally see a couple 10 footers drop in the hole.
"Different isn't always better, but better is always different."
Scottie Scheffler has a mallet in the bag this week. @therealGFD weighs in on why a change is so important. pic.twitter.com/1u40zH0XID
— The First Cut Podcast (@FirstCutPod) March 6, 2024
Best of luck this week Rotoballer family!
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