RADIO
The summer of golf keeps moving right along as the PGA Tour makes its way north of the border for the RBC Canadian Open. Hamilton Golf and Country Club is set to play the host role once again. We last played this event at this course in 2019 when Rory McIlroy went on a torrent Sunday run to rout the competition in a similar fashion that we saw him deploy a few weeks ago in Charlotte.
McIlroy is back and ready to take on a freshly renovated Hamilton G&CC with many of the best players on the PGA Tour as we get a full-field event on this classic Harry Colt golf course in Canada.
As always with this article, my primary goal is to provide a place to start your research and preparation for the incoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field to project course fits and past results in team golf formats. This will give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping this unique event. Here are my top-10 players to watch out for and a brief write-up of my reasons why.
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No. 10 - Nick Taylor
He just had to make the list. For goodness sake, the Canadian Open actually changed their logo to the infamous Nick Taylor silhouette from the playoff hole last year where he was able to drain a 72-foot Eagle putt to leave Tommy Fleetwood and those of us at home speechless. It was honestly one of the most memorable moments of last season as Taylor became the first Canadian to capture their national open since Pat Fletcher won in 1954.
Taylor has been a bit shaky in the form department recently but he's one of the many Canadians this week vying for not only the nation's pride but also trying to secure a spot on the upcoming Presidents Cup team, which is held in the homeland this season. Taylor will undoubtedly have a lot of media obligations this week, but the fond memories should be flowing and he'll be welcomed back to this event as a hero. Take your victory lap sir, you earned it!
Nick Taylor drains a 72-foot eagle putt to walk it off on the 4th playoff hole at the RBC Canadian Open. pic.twitter.com/OXJoQU16u1
— Underdog Golf (@Underdog__Golf) June 11, 2023
No. 9 - Alex Noren
Alex Noren's worst finish in his last eight PGA Tour starts is a T24! He's been a stalwart of consistency and has been playing remarkable golf, essentially turning back the clock to years ago when we first witnessed him on the PGA Tour. He was once again dominant on approach at Valhalla during the PGA Championship, finishing +5.8 strokes on approach in securing a T12 result in Kentucky at the second major of the year.
Noren is a stud around the greens, which I do believe could be a factor this week. Despite McIlroy winning this event at -22 in 2019, the field average scores are indicative that it actually played quite difficult on average. Noren has gained strokes ARG in 10 consecutive starts and it just feels like one of these weeks that he is going to gain four strokes putting and rattle off a win. His odds will be slightly protected by books not willing to get exposed in the T20 markets, but he's absolutely one of the more reliable players in the field you can roster in your DFS lineups and I would expect nothing different at the Canadian Open.
No. 8 - Adam Scott
For the second consecutive week, Adam Scott checks in at the eighth position in my Power Rankings. Scott was able to rekindle some familiar Texas mojo last week in Fort Worth at the Colonial where it felt like he could make another run at a title in Texas for a good while. His positive strides and improvement with the putter are so good that I find it perplexing that he has not been able to marry a good week on the greens with his deadly ballstriking that he is well known for.
Scott has been incredibly sound with his wedges in his last 36 rounds played. I have him ranked fifth in the entire field in terms of approach play inside of 125 yards over his last 36 rounds played. On a golf course that barely inches past 7,000 yards, players are going to have a ton of opportunities to hit into these smallish, tricky greens with a wedge. Those who are able to stick it close consistently, like Adam Scott has been doing recently, should have the best chance to succeed.
No. 7 - Sam Burns
It's been a tale of two seasons for Sam Burns in 2024. He started off hot, finishing inside the top 33 in his first six tournaments played with near wins at both The American Express and the WM Phoenix Open. Then came the more recent run of the season, where Burns has only finished inside the top 40 once in his last six starts and has three missed cuts along the way.
Burns, normally one the best putters on Tour, has struggled substantially on the greens. He lost over five strokes putting at Valhalla, which has been a familiar story lately for Burns, who has become known for his prowess with the flat stick. There is little doubt that Burns possesses elite top-level win equity when things are going right, but his struggling form has kept him outside of my top five this week where he rightly belongs if he was playing better golf.
No. 6 - Corey Conners
We have seen multiple wins by Canadian players this season (Nick Taylor, Taylor Pendrith), but no player is more accomplished and primed to win than Corey Conners. Known as one the most complete players on Tour from tee-to-green, Conners has been once again doing his thing in 2024. His approach numbers seem to be peaking at the right time as well. Conners has gained at least seven strokes on approach in each of his previous two starts.
Coming from someone who has routinely bet on Conners over many years, it can be agonizing to watch him flush it with his irons and go completely flaccid on the greens. He's gaining over a stroke per round on approach in his last 24 rounds, easily the best of any player in the field. He's as talented as anyone but has just not shown the ceiling upside to win that I believe the other players in my top five have shown.
No. 5 - Tommy Fleetwood
Witnessing Tommy Fleetwood lay up on the final hole of regulation may leave me forever scarred. He seemingly had this tournament wrapped up last season, needing a birdie on the easy par-5 finishing hole to finally secure his first PGA Tour victory. Instead, Fleetwood laid up (INTO THE ROUGH!), and he remains one the best players to not have a tour win. Fleetwood is an extremely well-rounded player who possesses all the tools to potentially get it done against a mid-tier field in Canada.
On this short course, Fleetwood has the accuracy off the tee box to set himself up repeatedly in the fairway with wedge opportunities into these greens. He ranks 12th in Driving Accuracy percentage and also top 15 in proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards. It's a great course fit for an in-form Tommy Fleetwood. Could this be the week? He's got every shot in the bag. It's all mental at this point for Fleetwood.
Tommy Fleetwood hitting six different shot shapes with the driver is fun to watch. Great demonstration of how much control pros have over their golf ball.
— Tour Pro 🏌️♂️ (@OfficialTourPro) May 1, 2024
No. 4 - Cameron Young
While we are on the topic of the best players yet to win a PGA Tour Tournament, let's go ahead and dive into my fourth-ranked player, Cameron Young. He's still one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet, but his struggles with the putter continue to hold him back. That said, it's hard to find a player more well-suited to dismantle Hamilton Golf and Country than Young. He's top 15 in the field in both SG: OTT and SG: Approach, which should be a deadly combination at this golf course.
Young underwhelmed at the PGA Championship and failed to finish inside the top 30 in his prior Signature Series event at the Wells Fargo Championship. We shouldn't be too quick to forget the run he was on in April, though, where Young nearly won the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a top-10 result at the Masters. It's rare to find a player with this much talent that is still in search of a victory, and he should be ultra-motivated this week to finally get his name off the list.
No. 3 - Sahith Theegala
Sahith Theegala is here to stay. The fan favorite has matched his charisma with his performance of late, going off in one of the final groups and notching a ton of major championship-pressure experience at Valhalla. Interestingly, his normal ability to showcase his excellent hands around the green has been somewhat sleepy lately, but it's a data metric that he will definitely have to be successful in this week at Hamilton G&CC.
Where he has excelled lately has been his iron play. He gained four strokes on approach at the PGA Championship and has produced a vastly improved 2024 season. I used to believe that Theegala was a player that you could only have confidence in succeeding on particular course setups, but it has become clear that this player can compete and potentially win anywhere on the schedule. He's been knocking on the door all season long, and we'll have to wait and see if someone finally answers in Canada.
No. 2 - Shane Lowry
If you are looking for a player who is a premium course fit at Hamilton G&CC, look no further than an in-form Shane Lowry. He admittedly rode the coattails of Rory McIlroy in New Orleans when they won the Zurich Classic (team event) a few weeks back, but then showcased that he indeed had some game of his own when he finished sixth at the PGA Championship. If you're looking at his stat metrics, Lowry has been vastly improved with his approach play this season and it has led to terrific results thus far.
Lowry has four results that are T6 or better in his last eight tournaments. He made a big change with a new putter at Valhalla after losing over 20 strokes on the greens in his previous three starts. It definitely paid dividends as Lowry has his best putting week...ever! He gained a ridiculous nine strokes putting that week, and while I understand that is not repeatable or predictive, I think the confidence goes a long way. Lowry also finished second at the Canadian Open when this event was last played at Hamilton in 2019.
No. 1 - Rory McIlroy
Welcome to Rory Week. Rory McIlroy won this event back in 2019 with a scorching final round 61 that was reminiscent of his recent slaughtering of the field at the Wells Fargo three weeks ago where he also won. There is a lot going on outside of the golf course with McIlroy at the moment, but he has always taken a particular liking to the Canadian Open and he'll be a substantial favorite to win once again this year.
He's the No. 1 player in the stat model that I ran, and it's not particularly close. It would appear the subtle swing changes he made with Butch Harmon before the Masters are finally settling in. He's gone with a three-quarter wedge swing that has allowed him superior control and it shows on his approach play in recent weeks. I believe McIlroy is set up to dominate this event once again in 2024 and hoist another RBC Canadian Open trophy late on Sunday evening. All hail!
Next week the Canadian Open is back in Hamilton. The place where Rors shot a 61 on Sunday to win in 19’.
What a day that was! 😮💨😍🇨🇦
— RORY FANS (@rory_fans) May 22, 2024
Best of luck this week, RotoBaller family!
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