NFL Draft Predictions - First Round Mock Draft (2023)

March 11, 2023

Mitchell's NFL mock draft for the 1st round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He predicts the round 1 draft picks, and which players will be selected in the first round.

The NFL Scouting Combine has begun! Over the first week of March, we will see prospects run, throw, get measured, and, most of all, stand around waiting to do something. Seven weeks from now, those prospects will be drafted.

Who will end up on which teams? The time for mock drafts has begun. So I will begin with RotoBaller’s first mock draft of the 2023 season.

The Bears, at No. 1, do not need to draft a quarterback, and with all of their pressing needs elsewhere, it doesn’t make sense for them to draft competition for Justin Fields. Yes, the Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts in 2020 when Carson Wentz was coming off a 4,039-yard, 27-touchdown season, but that was in the middle of the second round where  Hurts was a bargain.

Will Chicago Trade The First Pick?

Many teams desperately need a quarterback, so Chicago might try to trade the pick, but if they trade outside of the top four, they will not have their choice of a top defensive lineman. There is a big drop-off from EDGE Will Anderson Jr. and DT Jalen Carter to the next defensive player available. If Chicago is only entertaining offers from Houston (No. 2) and Indianapolis (No. 4), they have less leverage to demand a big haul of picks.

The existence of multiple top-10 quarterbacks also hurts their leverage. Bryce Young and Will Levis are both in the running to be the first QB taken. C.J. Stroud is likelier to be QB2 or QB3, but he has an outside shot at No. 1 overall. If Houston is equally satisfied with two or more, they would not want to trade up one spot. And if Indianapolis likes Levis and believes he will fall to No. 4, they might not trade.

It is most likely that Indianapolis will trade with Chicago just to get ahead of Arizona at No. 3, as Arizona could shop that pick to Seattle (No. 5), Detroit (No. 6), Las Vegas (No. 7), or Carolina (No. 9) if Indy stays put. In that case, a trade would not wildly shake up the order of players picked; Chicago would still get a top defensive lineman in either Will Anderson Jr. or Jalen Carter, and Indianapolis and Houston would still get one of the top-2 signal callers.

I chose to leave the order of the picks where they are.

The Top 10 NFL Draft Picks

1. Chicago Bears

Will Anderson Jr. - EDGE, Alabama

After making 49 sacks in 2021, the Bears had just 20 sacks last season, the least in the league, behind the Falcons. They lost Khalil Mack in 2021 free agency and traded Roquan Smith during the ’22 season. They need to rebuild their line from scratch.

Enter Will Anderson Jr. The man had double-digit sacks in both his sophomore and junior seasons. He led the FBS in sacks and pressures in 2021 and, far and away, leads all players in the draft in both categories in his career.

2. Houston Texans

Bryce Young - QB, Alabama

A franchise whose all-time passing leader is Matt Schaub desperately needs a quarterback they can hang their hat on. Young has the best combination of fundamentals, college production, experience playing in a pro-style offense against top competition, and play-creating ability. He’d probably be a lock at QB1 if not for his small size. He is listed at 6' 0”, which would make him the third-shortest starter in the league, but he looks shorter in photos and has a lighter listed weight (194 lbs) than every single starter. Analysts will be awaiting his Combine measurements.

3. Arizona Cardinals

Jalen Carter - DT, Georgia

Carter explodes off the line, shuts down the run, and gets pressure from the interior. He was involved in making three total sacks in 2022 and nine over his three years at Georgia. His missed tackle rate was only 12.1%.

Arizona had the sixth-worst run defense grade in 2021, and they are set to lose DEs J.J. Watt and Zach Allen through retirement and free agency. If Indianapolis does trade up to number one, Arizona takes Will Anderson here, and Chicago takes Carter.

4. Indianapolis Colts

Will Levis - QB, Kentucky

Will Levis has the frame, the arm, and the confidence to attack down the field and over the middle. He has a quick release. He can stand under pressure and fit the ball into tight windows. But, Levis has serious problems with his footwork and his accuracy. Indianapolis takes him, hoping they can develop him into the next Peyton Manning. Depending on how he and Levis look at the Combine, Levis could go No. 1.

5. Seattle Seahawks

Tyree Wilson - EDGE, Texas Tech

Despite ranking in the middle of the pack in terms of sacks, the Seahawks had one of the worst pass rush grades in PFF’s rankings. They did not have a single player rank in the top 32 for pass rush win rate, and two of their leading sack-makers are age 30 or older.

Wilson gives them a versatile rookie linebacker with a huge frame who has played both inside and outside at Texas A&M and Texas Tech. He attacks blockers with a vengeance—which is both good and bad (sometimes, he just attacks without finishing). But it is easier to teach form than it is to instill one with the vicious hunger for ball carriers that Wilson already has.

6. Detroit Lions

Christian Gonzalez - CB, Oregon

A four-star recruit with the ability to line up anywhere on the field, Gonzalez will add much-needed talent and depth to Detroit’s liability of a defense.

7. Las Vegas Raiders

C.J. Stroud - QB, Ohio State

The Raiders know they need a quarterback. Let’s say they don’t get Aaron Rodgers and don’t trade for Lamar Jackson. The other QBs on the market are just alternative versions of Derek Carr, whom they gave up on.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Myles Murphy - EDGE, Clemson

The Falcons have finished amongst the bottom ten in sacks in each of the past five seasons. If not for the Bears, they would have finished dead last for the second straight season. Myles Murphy would give them a twitchy, power edge rusher who accumulated 20 total sacks over his three years at Clemson.

9. Carolina Panthers

Anthony Richardson - QB, Florida

Richardson is flying up the boards with his raw athleticism and dynamic playmaking ability. He rushed for 654 yards and nine touchdowns while throwing for 2,549 yards as a third-year sophomore.

10. Philadelphia Eagles

Quentin Johnston - WR, TCU

The Eagles already have one of the top two receiving corps, but Johnston is the best combination of talent and positional value available here. Without many gaping holes and with another pick at No. 30, Philadelphia can take the luxury selection here.

Picks No. 11-21: A Fifth Quarterback Taken?

11. Tennessee Titans

Paris Johnson Jr. - OT, Ohio State

The Titans allowed 172 pressures on 531 dropbacks, the worst rate in the league, and they weren’t much better at run blocking. Derrick Henry was frequently getting hit behind the line. Paris Johnson excels at run blocking and has the versatility to play tackle or guard.

12. Houston Texans

Peter Skoronski - T, Northwestern

Another offensive line that wasn’t giving their halfback any room to run was Houston. They generated just 0.8 yards before contact. Skoronski started all three of his seasons in the rough-and-tumble trenches of the Big 10 West and looked better each year.

13. New York Jets

Brian Branch - S, Alabama

Adding a safety of Branch’s nature to a defensive that boasts one of the best cornerback duos would make the Jets’ backfield nearly impossible to attack. Branch spent most of his time covering the slot, a crucial role in today’s NFL.

14. New England Patriots

Joey Porter Jr. - CB, Penn State

The Pats have been trying to fill out their defensive backfield for a couple of drafts. Now they might be losing Jonathan Jones in free agency and depth piece Joejuan Williams. Belichick could wait until the second or third and get Texas A&M CB Jaylon Jones if he wants to continue a recent trend. But Porter, who allowed just 143 yards and no touchdowns in 2022, is a punishing press corner who hits like his dad.

15. Green Bay Packers

Michael Mayer - TE, Notre Dame

Robert Tongyan, now a free agent, never reached the level some hoped. Michael Mayer had two seasons with over 800 receiving yards and set a Notre Dame school record for career receptions by a tight end.

16. Washington Commanders

Broderick Jones - T, Georgia

In 665 snaps of pass blocking, Jones allowed just two sacks and 12 pressures in one-and-a-half years as a starter for Georgia’s national champion teams. Washington would do well to get Jones to protect Sam Howell or whoever ends up as their future quarterback.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Devon Witherspoon - CB, Illinois

The Steelers need help at the corner position. Devon Witherspoon allowed a completion percentage of just 34.9% when targeted and picked off three passes while allowing no touchdowns.

18. Detroit Lions

Calijah Kancey - DT, Pittsburgh

The Lions seem to have found their defensive ends in Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston, but they still need some talent on the interior.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR, Ohio State 

Chris Godwin and Russell Gage are both 27 years old. Mike Evans will be 30 this season, and Julio Jones is 34. The Bucs need receivers for their quarterback (whoever it is) to throw to for more than a couple of years.

20. Seattle Seahawks

Hendon Hooker - QB, Tennessee

Even if Geno Smith stays around for another year, he’s not a long-term solution. Hooker made strides each year at Tennessee. He doesn’t need to start year one in Seattle if the Seahawks franchise Geno or extend him for a short deal.

21. Miami Dolphins

Forfeited - TAMPERING

A terrible exchange, given that the Dolphins didn't end up with Tom Brady or Sean Payton and instead got a lawsuit from Brian Flores. They also lost their 2024 third-round pick.

Picks No. 22-32: Where Will Bijan Fall?

22. Los Angeles Chargers

Lukas Van Ness - EDGE, Iowa

Khalil Mack and Kyle Van Noy are both over 32. The Chargers can still get serviceable play out of them while Lukas Van Ness develops. Because, while Van Ness is a strong bull rushing beast who made nine sacks his sophomore year, he was not a full-time starter and only played 940 snaps in his two years at Iowa.

23. Baltimore Ravens

Jordan Addison - WR, USC 

When do the Ravens not need a wide receiver? I could see them taking a quarterback here, too, after they fail to work out a long-term deal with Lamar Jackson. They lack a pick in the second round, but the more likely scenario is they franchise Jackson and then trade him to a QB-needy team and pick a top-four signal-caller with an early first-round pick.

24. Minnesota Vikings

O'Cyrus Torrence - G, Florida

Ezra Cleveland, now in his third season and showing little progress, allowed five sacks, the sixth-worst amongst guards, and 55 pressures last season, the second-worst. If the Vikings line had given Kirk Cousins more time in the Wild Card round, maybe he wouldn’t have had to dump it off to the tight end behind the line on the final play.

Or maybe he would have. He’s Kirk Cousins.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars

Steve Avila - G, TCU

Do you know who else gave up a lot of sacks? Jaguars guard Brandon Scherff allowed six. He’s 31 years old, so he was going to need to be replaced anyway. Avila allowed no sacks after moving from center to guard his senior year. I could see him and Torrence going back-to-back or flipping spots.

26. New York Giants

Zay Flowers - WR, Boston College

The Giants are another team with uncertainty at quarterback, who has never provided their signal caller with a capable receiving corps. Flowers is used to being the focal point of his team’s passing game. He had a 29.6% target share during his senior year.

27. Dallas Cowboys

Bryan Bresee - DT, Clemson

An explosive five-star recruit, Bryan Bresee solidifies the Cowboys’ defensive line.

28. Buffalo Bills

Bijan Robinson, RB - Texas

The Bills would do well to take some pressure off Josh Allen. Running play-action and read options with Allen and Robinson in the backfield would be a cheat code.

29. Cincinnati Bengals

Dawand Jones, T - Ohio State

Did you watch the AFC Championship? Do you know what the Bengals need? (I mean, besides an owner who can afford to pay the refs.) An offensive line. Joe Burrow was hit 12 times and sacked five times.

30. New Orleans Saints

Nolan Smith - EDGE, Georgia

Smith was in the midst of a breakout senior year when he tore his pec eight games in and missed the second half of the season. At that point, he had made 3.0 sacks and seven tackles for loss. He also made eight tackles for loss, one interception, and three forced fumbles his junior year. He has a high upside.

31. Philadelphia Eagles

Mazi Smith - DT, Michigan

With Javon Hargrove on his way out, the Eagles reload with this 6’3”, 337-pound beast, who can bench press 550 pounds and who tops Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Andre Carter II - EDGE, Army

The Chiefs might cut Frank Clark to save cap room and need an end on the other side of George Karlaftis III in the future. Carter looked amazing on tape. He made plays all over the field, stripping QBs, tipping passes, and even blocking an extra-point attempt. He was ranked as high as number ten following his 15-sack season in 2021, but his stock greatly fell at the Senior Bowl. The Combine will be important for him.

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