X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2019 Season in Review - Trevor Bauer

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher (SP) Trevor Bauer was traded midseason and struggled to find his form in 2019. Riley Mrack examines his stats to determine whether he will be a strong value for fantasy baseball owners in 2020 based on ADP.

Trevor Bauer disappointed fantasy managers everywhere in 2019 after a dominant 2018 campaign where he finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting. Setting career-bests with a 2.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 221 strikeouts in 175.1 IP (30.8% K%), the 28-year-old entered the 2019 draft season as a top-10 pitcher with an ADP of 31. His results were far from what anyone expected, including his own team, as the Cleveland Indians were forced to deal Bauer away to the National League at the deadline.

While the switch in leagues may seem like a drastic change on the surface, the reality was it was only a 250-mile move down the highway to play for the Cincinnati Reds. The change in scenery failed to make a difference with Bauer's already slumping season, however, as he finished the year with an 11-13 record, 4.48 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and a 27.8% K-rate. The end result was a far cry from his Cy Young-candidate numbers the year before.

When we dive into Bauer's stats from this past season, we see a lot of similarities from 2018 and beyond that make him one of the top strikeout arms in the game. On the flip side, it appears batters made an adjustment to the former All-Star and capitalized on his pitching tendencies to help him allow the second-most runs in the entire league. Let's take a look at where it all went wrong for Bauer in 2019.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Bauer Outage?

The most egregious area where Bauer lacked was in his inability to keep the ball in the park. After finishing the 2018 campaign with a 0.46 HR/9, he entered the 2019 season with a career 0.98 mark, a figure that catapulted to 1.44 last season. That was bad enough for a bottom-15 number in all of baseball. His HR/FB paralleled these numbers by soaring up nearly 10% from 6.2% in 2018 to 15.3% in 2019 after coming into the year with an 11.0% lifetime mark. We knew some negative regression would happen in these areas going into the season, but nowhere near these catastrophic levels.

So, where do we lay the blame for this home run vulnerability? The obvious place to look is at his uptick in fly balls allowed (28.2% FB%), which hit a six-year high after three-straight years with numbers at 23% or below. It wasn't purely the fact that Bauer gave up more balls in the air than normal that caused the 34-homer outburst; it was the way hitters attacked his fastball.

Bauer has a six-pitch arsenal, but the 20 long balls given up last year on his four-seamer would make you think otherwise. Opposing batters targeted this delivery early and often by swatting seven homers on the first pitch of an at-bat, and another seven on the second offering. Bauer leans heavily on his 94.8 MPH heater to get ahead in the count early with a 45.6% usage to begin an AB. His cutter was his next favored first pitch offering with a 22.2% usage, so batters had a strong inkling a breaking ball wasn't coming.

With a wipeout slider and a devastating curveball, it's no wonder hitters attacked Bauer more often early in their ABs. Whether or not he adjusts his approach next year to rectify these mistakes remains to be seen, but his staggering HR stats should pull back closer to the mean in 2020.

 

Bauer-ful Arm

Bauer's K-rate may have declined 3% from 2018 to 2019, but it wasn't enough to push him out of the league's top-five in strikeout totals. A career-high 213.0 innings pitched last season aided the former third-overall pick to reach 253 punchouts in his time split between the two leagues.

Despite his four-seamer getting hit harder than ever, it made batters swing-and-miss more often with a 21.7% Whiff%, the highest mark of his career. He paired his gas with a slider to sit down right-handers (44.1% Whiff%) and a curveball to finish lefties (32.1% Whiff%), both elite-level marks. These deliveries led to a near 6% increase from 2018 in batters whiffing on balls out of the zone (56.2% O-Contact%), the problem was they swung more often when it was going to be a strike.

When hitters saw the fastball in the zone, they took advantage of it with a 69.5% Swing%, up from a 61.7% mark in 2018. Contrary to these numbers, opponents took Bauer's slider for a strike more often with a 57.1% Swing% in the zone, a massive 18.8% drop from the season before.

Bauer's .272 BA against his four-seamer versus his .177 BA off his breaking balls is a telling tale of why batters chose to be aggressive early. Opponents sat fastball and destroyed it in 2019, but when he was able to get ahead in two-strike counts, he made no mistake by putting them away with his breaking pitches.

 

2020 Outlook

After Bauer sealed his fate by launching the game ball over the center-field fence instead of handing it over to manager Terry Francona, his landing spot at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark was less than ideal. While it's true that he struggled more with the Reds in his two-month sample (6.39 ERA/1.35 WHIP), he actually fared well at GAB with a 3.55 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in five starts.

Seeing his HR/9 balloon from 1.26 with the Indians to 1.92 with Cincinnati also carries some red flags. 2019 was his first season throwing more than 190 innings, and the first time in three seasons he eclipsed 177 IP. Perhaps his late-season home run susceptibility can be chalked up to fatigue or just a lack of focus on a non-contending team. Whatever the reason, Bauer has still shown an incredible ability to strike batters out and that skill doesn't appear to be faltering.

The 28-year-old will have to adapt to hitters in 2020 as they adjusted to him after his impressive 2018 campaign. He will have to throw more breaking balls earlier in counts next season to keep batters honest and not cheat on his four-seamer. Like most pitchers, Bauer is at his best when he's ahead in the count, and he'll be able to sneak his fastball by batters while they're guessing what's coming on a two-strike pitch. Positive regression will be on Bauer's side next season for a change as he'll undoubtedly look to rebound heading into his contract year.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
ANA

Mikael Granlund Moves to Anaheim on Three-Year Deal
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
NJ

Jake Allen Signs Five-Year Extension With Devils
VAN

Brock Boeser Remains in Vancouver on Seven-Year Deal
Conor Garland

Signs New Six-Year Deal with Canucks
Thatcher Demko

Signs Three-Year Extension with Canucks
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary Agrees to Seven-Year Extension with Capitals
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
MLB

Brewers-Mets Postponed on Tuesday
MLB

Tigers-Nationals Postponed on Tuesday
Zach Neto

Returns to Tuesday's Lineup
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
MLB

Padres-Phillies Postponed on Tuesday
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Hunter Goodman

Back Behind the Dish on Tuesday
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Jason Day

is a Fine Play With Limited Upside at John Deere Classic
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Luke Clanton

Looks to Have Another Strong Week at TPC Deere Run
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Sacramento Kings

Dennis Schroder Set to Join Sacramento
Bo Bichette

Out Again on Tuesday
Trent Grisham

Likely Heading to Injured List
Boston Celtics

Luke Kornet Agrees to Contract With San Antonio
Jonas Valančiūnas

Nuggets Trade for Center Jonas Valanciunas
Royce Lewis

Twins Activate Royce Lewis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Signs Massive Extension With Oklahoma City
Corbin Carroll

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
New York Knicks

Knicks Pick Up Guerschon Yabusele
Yordan Alvarez

Could Return Early Next Week
NFL

Negotiations on 18-Game Season Not Expected Until Next Year
Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner Leaves Indiana, Signs With Milwaukee
Kerry Carpenter

Shelved with Hamstring Issue
Tyler Boyd

Steelers Have Talked With Tyler Boyd
Milwaukee Bucks

Damian Lillard Waived By Milwaukee
Darren Waller

Coming Out of Retirement to Play for Dolphins
Alexander Romanov

Islanders Retain Alexander Romanov on $50 Million Contract
Andrei Kuzmenko

Signs Up for One More Year with Kings
Morgan Geekie

Signs Long-Term Extension with Bruins
Ivan Provorov

Stays in Columbus on Seven-Year Deal
Alex Pietrangelo

Stepping Away From Golden Knights for Health Reasons
Matias Maccelli

Maple Leafs Bring in Matias Maccelli
Evan Bouchard

Inks $42 Million Contract with Oilers
Vladimir Tarasenko

Wild Acquire Vladimir Tarasenko From Detroit
Patrick Kane

Signs New One-Year Deal with Red Wings
Brad Marchand

Lands Six-Year Extension
Aaron Ekblad

Remains a Panther on Eight-Year Deal
Mitchell Marner

Heads to Vegas
Randy Arozarena

Homers Twice, Plates Four Monday
Shea Langeliers

Hits Three-Run Homer In Return From Injured List Monday
Wilyer Abreu

Belts Grand Slam and Hits Inside-the-Park Home Run
Philadelphia 76ers

Trendon Watford Lands in Philadelphia
New York Knicks

Jordan Clarkson Expected to Sign With Knicks
Zack Wheeler

Tosses Eight Shutout Innings, Punches Out 10
Santi Aldama

Remains with Grizzlies
Atlanta Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Lands in Atlanta
George Springer

Exits Early Monday With Neck Injury
Jalen Ramsey

Could Move Around in Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Clippers

Brook Lopez Strikes Deal With Clippers
Jonnu Smith

to be Used in Hybrid Role
Terry McLaurin

Commanders, Terry McLaurin Not Close on Contract Extension
Hunter Goodman

Likely Headed to Injured List
Chicago Bulls

Tre Jones Remaining in Chicago
Michael Mayer

Raiders Not Interested in Trading Michael Mayer
Houston Rockets

Dorian Finney-Smith Signing With Rockets
Atlanta Hawks

Caris LeVert Joining Pistons
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF