X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2019 Season in Review - Trevor Bauer

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher (SP) Trevor Bauer was traded midseason and struggled to find his form in 2019. Riley Mrack examines his stats to determine whether he will be a strong value for fantasy baseball owners in 2020 based on ADP.

Trevor Bauer disappointed fantasy managers everywhere in 2019 after a dominant 2018 campaign where he finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting. Setting career-bests with a 2.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 221 strikeouts in 175.1 IP (30.8% K%), the 28-year-old entered the 2019 draft season as a top-10 pitcher with an ADP of 31. His results were far from what anyone expected, including his own team, as the Cleveland Indians were forced to deal Bauer away to the National League at the deadline.

While the switch in leagues may seem like a drastic change on the surface, the reality was it was only a 250-mile move down the highway to play for the Cincinnati Reds. The change in scenery failed to make a difference with Bauer's already slumping season, however, as he finished the year with an 11-13 record, 4.48 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and a 27.8% K-rate. The end result was a far cry from his Cy Young-candidate numbers the year before.

When we dive into Bauer's stats from this past season, we see a lot of similarities from 2018 and beyond that make him one of the top strikeout arms in the game. On the flip side, it appears batters made an adjustment to the former All-Star and capitalized on his pitching tendencies to help him allow the second-most runs in the entire league. Let's take a look at where it all went wrong for Bauer in 2019.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Bauer Outage?

The most egregious area where Bauer lacked was in his inability to keep the ball in the park. After finishing the 2018 campaign with a 0.46 HR/9, he entered the 2019 season with a career 0.98 mark, a figure that catapulted to 1.44 last season. That was bad enough for a bottom-15 number in all of baseball. His HR/FB paralleled these numbers by soaring up nearly 10% from 6.2% in 2018 to 15.3% in 2019 after coming into the year with an 11.0% lifetime mark. We knew some negative regression would happen in these areas going into the season, but nowhere near these catastrophic levels.

So, where do we lay the blame for this home run vulnerability? The obvious place to look is at his uptick in fly balls allowed (28.2% FB%), which hit a six-year high after three-straight years with numbers at 23% or below. It wasn't purely the fact that Bauer gave up more balls in the air than normal that caused the 34-homer outburst; it was the way hitters attacked his fastball.

Bauer has a six-pitch arsenal, but the 20 long balls given up last year on his four-seamer would make you think otherwise. Opposing batters targeted this delivery early and often by swatting seven homers on the first pitch of an at-bat, and another seven on the second offering. Bauer leans heavily on his 94.8 MPH heater to get ahead in the count early with a 45.6% usage to begin an AB. His cutter was his next favored first pitch offering with a 22.2% usage, so batters had a strong inkling a breaking ball wasn't coming.

With a wipeout slider and a devastating curveball, it's no wonder hitters attacked Bauer more often early in their ABs. Whether or not he adjusts his approach next year to rectify these mistakes remains to be seen, but his staggering HR stats should pull back closer to the mean in 2020.

 

Bauer-ful Arm

Bauer's K-rate may have declined 3% from 2018 to 2019, but it wasn't enough to push him out of the league's top-five in strikeout totals. A career-high 213.0 innings pitched last season aided the former third-overall pick to reach 253 punchouts in his time split between the two leagues.

Despite his four-seamer getting hit harder than ever, it made batters swing-and-miss more often with a 21.7% Whiff%, the highest mark of his career. He paired his gas with a slider to sit down right-handers (44.1% Whiff%) and a curveball to finish lefties (32.1% Whiff%), both elite-level marks. These deliveries led to a near 6% increase from 2018 in batters whiffing on balls out of the zone (56.2% O-Contact%), the problem was they swung more often when it was going to be a strike.

When hitters saw the fastball in the zone, they took advantage of it with a 69.5% Swing%, up from a 61.7% mark in 2018. Contrary to these numbers, opponents took Bauer's slider for a strike more often with a 57.1% Swing% in the zone, a massive 18.8% drop from the season before.

Bauer's .272 BA against his four-seamer versus his .177 BA off his breaking balls is a telling tale of why batters chose to be aggressive early. Opponents sat fastball and destroyed it in 2019, but when he was able to get ahead in two-strike counts, he made no mistake by putting them away with his breaking pitches.

 

2020 Outlook

After Bauer sealed his fate by launching the game ball over the center-field fence instead of handing it over to manager Terry Francona, his landing spot at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark was less than ideal. While it's true that he struggled more with the Reds in his two-month sample (6.39 ERA/1.35 WHIP), he actually fared well at GAB with a 3.55 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in five starts.

Seeing his HR/9 balloon from 1.26 with the Indians to 1.92 with Cincinnati also carries some red flags. 2019 was his first season throwing more than 190 innings, and the first time in three seasons he eclipsed 177 IP. Perhaps his late-season home run susceptibility can be chalked up to fatigue or just a lack of focus on a non-contending team. Whatever the reason, Bauer has still shown an incredible ability to strike batters out and that skill doesn't appear to be faltering.

The 28-year-old will have to adapt to hitters in 2020 as they adjusted to him after his impressive 2018 campaign. He will have to throw more breaking balls earlier in counts next season to keep batters honest and not cheat on his four-seamer. Like most pitchers, Bauer is at his best when he's ahead in the count, and he'll be able to sneak his fastball by batters while they're guessing what's coming on a two-strike pitch. Positive regression will be on Bauer's side next season for a change as he'll undoubtedly look to rebound heading into his contract year.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Sauce Gardner

Agrees to $120.4 Million Contract Extension
Marvin Mims Jr.

Could be on Track for First 1,000-Yard Season
Jaylen Johnson

Chargers Place Jaylen Johnson on PUP List
Dereck Lively II

Undergoes Right-Foot Surgery Tuesday
Kendrick Bourne

Kayshon Boutte Fighting for Final Spots
Isaiah Collier

Logs a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Monday
DeMario Douglas

Kyle Williams "Locks" for Receiving Corps
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Finalizing Massive Extension
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Colts Expected to Ease Anthony Richardson Sr. Back in
Devin Carter

Posts 17 Points Versus Suns
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 17 Points in Summer League Loss
Terry McLaurin

Undecided on Whether he Will Report to Training Camp
Colston Loveland

Says his Shoulder is 100 Percent
Harrison Ingram

has Impressive Outing Against Jazz
Sam Williams

has Potential to be Elite Edge Rusher
Shemar Stewart

Considering Going Back to College?
Jahmyr Gibbs

Lions Want Jahmyr Gibbs "More Involved" in Passing Game
Jordan Addison

Could be Facing Three-Game Suspension
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Kyle Filipowski

Records 35-Point Double-Double Against Spurs
Kel'el Ware

Dominates Against Celtics
Kon Knueppel

Gets Going Monday
Matas Buzelis

Puts Up 28 Points in Win Over Pacers
Reed Sheppard

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
Paul George

Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Najee Harris

Likely to Miss Time at Start of Training Camp
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Collin Morikawa

Misses The Cut at Genesis Scottish Open
Hideki Matsuyama

Finishes Tied For 13th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooks Koepka

Finishes Tied For 32nd at LIV Andalucia
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For 34th at Genesis Scottish Open
Jason Day

Misses The Cut at John Deere Classic
Ludvig Aberg

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Cam Taylor-Britt

has Benefited From Addition of Al Golden
Rome Odunze

Could Take Off in Year 2
RJ Harvey

to Get "Significant" Work in Broncos' Passing Game
Jackson Powers-Johnson

More Comfortable Heading into Year 2
Luke McCaffrey

In Line for Larger Role?
Braelon Allen

Jets Viewing Braelon Allen as Long-Term Starter?
Joel Embiid

Participating in Partial Basketball Activities
Victor Wembanyama

Officially Cleared to Return After Blood-Clot Recovery
Mike Williams

Heading to PUP List
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Kel'el Ware

Collects 21 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Cam Spencer

Contract Being Restructured
Drew Timme

Scores 30 Points in Summer League Loss to Wizards
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Alexandre Sarr

Logs Impressive Outing in Summer League Action on Sunday
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Kyle Filipowski

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss to Warriors
Cody Williams

Collects 22 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF