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2016 Top 15 Wide Receiver Keeper Values

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft round in order to keep a player into the up-coming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as: the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants.

The Keeper Values are derived from my 15 step Keeper Valuation Formula. The product is a quanitative depiction of a players ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners needs based on the cost they payed for the player in the previous season (2015 ADP). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player, keeping him at their associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this "value" based attitude, will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a Keeper League.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

About The Keeper Valuation Formula

The Keeper Valuation Formula uses the players’ age, draft round, number of teams in the league, previous season stats, projected stats, games played percentage, positional value, and some secret squirrel statistical math. The product is a true Keeper Value for each player.

Obviously every league will have different ADP, especially keeper leagues when you consider the amount of keepers that are taken out of the draft pool each season. But since there is no way to track ADP specific to all Keeper Leagues, we use standard league ADP. If you want to check out the scores for your players in a specific-custom league, you can follow me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB.

TIER SCORE EXPLANATION
1 >75 Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT.
2 50-75 Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept.
3 25-49 You are gaining value with these players, but not as much as your opponents are, potentially. Consider if your options are limited.
4 0-24 Break even point. Minimal value. Only consider if you are allowed a large quantity of Keeper selections.
5 -99-0 Keeping these players will hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding any value. Dont waste a Keeper selection here.
6 <-100 The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away.

 
 

Top 15 WR Keeper Values

These fantastic player profiles are brought to you from our very own Ben Ruppert. If you are ever in need of fantasy advice, or just great entertainment, follow him on Twitter @Ben_Ruppert_21 .

 
1. Allen Robinson, JAX (6th Round ADP)- Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 92.19

Robinson torched defenders early and often last season, catching 80 passes for 1,400 yards and 14 TDs. While the Jaguars made some key additions on defense, they don’t figure to be too much better than last season meaning Blake Bortles will still need to air the ball out plenty to Robinson. The 14 TDs will be nearly impossible to repeat, but another top-10 receiving season is in order for the young wideout. He is being drafted as the number seven receiver in standard leagues according to fanatsyfootballcalculator, which is why his value in the sixth round is so huge.

2. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (4th Round)- Score: 88.94

In 2015 Hopkins exploded for 111 receptions, 1,521 yards, and 11 TDs while finishing third in targets at 192. Expect more of the same from Hopkins in 2016; the Texans added Lamar Miller in the offseason, who is talented enough to be able to keep defenses in check allowing Hopkins to run wild downfield for more big gains. He is being drafted as the number four overall receiver behind the big three of Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and O’Dell Beckham in drafts, so if you were able to grab him in the fourth round of your draft last season you had to be extremely happy with the top-tier production he gave you. 

3. Brandon Marshall, NYJ (7th Round)- Score: 78.61

Marshall comes off his best year since 2012, catching 109 passes for 1,502 yards and 14 TDs (career high). With Fitz coming back for one last year as a Jet, expect him to heave the ball around the yard once again to Marshall and Eric Decker in what figures to be a pass heavy offense. Marshall felt like an injury risk in the seventh round last season, but if you have him valued there do whatever you can to keep him and expect numbers close to last season. Even with Marshall turning 32, he relies on his football IQ more than his speed to make plays, something he can carry with him late into his career. 

4. Antonio Brown, PIT (1st Round)- Score: 78.05

Brown had the best year of his career last season catching 136 passes for 1,834 yards and 10 TDs. He even chipped in with a punt return for a score, and added two successful two-point conversions. Brown saw a league leading 195 targets from Ben Roethlisberger, and with WR2 Martavis Bryant out for the season, there is a chance that number somehow increases. The sky is the limit for Brown, who has himself claimed he can hit the 2,000-yard mark. If you took Brown in the first last season, you won’t be upset keeping the incumbent number one overall player in fantasy in the first round again this season. 

5. Donte Moncrief, IND (17th Round)- Score: 74.73

In 2015, Moncrief caught 64 passes for 733 yards and six scores, doubling his reception and target total from 2014. He is the returning number two receiver in this offense, and with another year of chemistry built up with Luck he has the opportunity to once again build on those numbers. He was drafted very low in last year’s drafts, and due to his potential in what looks to be a pass-happy offense he is being taken in the fifth round in 12-team leagues this season. Keep him late, and enjoy your WR2 production. 

6. Doug Baldwin, SEA (12th Round)- Score: 68.97

Last season Baldwin caught 78 balls for 1,069 yards and 14 TDs. From Week 10 onwards, he put up WR1 numbers totaling 47 catches, 724 yards, and 12 over eight games. Baldwin is going to be the number one option again this season in an offense that has seen its pass attempts rise in each of the last three seasons. With Russell Wilson at the helm looking Baldwin’s way again in 2016, he should be able to eclipse his overall numbers from 2015. Baldwin is being drafted in the fifth round in 12 team leagues as a solid WR2, so if you got him later on last year and held onto him you have to love your profit margin this season and onwards. 

7. Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (1st Round)- Score: 67.00

Last season OBJ improved on his sensational rookie year, catching 96 passes for 1,450 yards and 13 scores in only 15 games (suspension). He remains far and away the top receiving option on one of the highest volume passing teams in the league, meaning he has a good chance to improve on these stellar numbers once he plays a full 16 game slate. Beckham is a consensus top-five pick, as high as number two behind Antonio Brown. You would have to keep him in the first this year, to hold him, and given his elite production that’s quite alright. 

8. Tyler Lockett, SEA (17th Round)- Score: 63.42

Behind Doug Baldwin, Lockette was able to snag 51 passes for 664 yards and six scores. After playing about 60% of offensive snaps last season, that number figures to jump in 2016, meaning his offensive numbers should rise with it as well. The Seahawks without Marshawn Lynch will rely on Wilson more this season, meaning Lockett has a ton of upside value where he is currently being drafted, as the 33rd WR off the board in standard leagues. Getting him extremely late last season has the potential to pay huge dividends for Lockett owners this season. 

9. A.J. Green, CIN (2nd Round)- Score: 62.67

Last season Green caught 86 passes for 1,297 yards and 10 TDs. In all five of his pro years, he has had at least 1,000 yards and six scores; he is one of the safest picks in fantasy football. This year the Bengals lost Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and will be without Tyler Eifert for a few games meaning Green will be the focal point of the offense. The uptick in targets he figures to get make him a sure-fire first round selection, as he builds upon his solid 2015 season. Green provides first round value for a second round pick in keeper leagues, so he can be kept there while you start your draft off great taking another stud in the first. 

10. Allen Hurns, JAX (14th Round)- Score: 62.51

As the number two receiver behind Allen Robinson, Hurns still grabbed 64 passes for 1,031 yards and 10 TDs. The Jaguars threw the ball over 600 times last season, and although they upped their running game with Chris Ivory they still figure to be one of the higher volume passing offenses again in 2016. With teams focused on stopping the dangerous Allen Robinson, Hurns will have plenty of chances to get open, especially in the red zone where he proved to be a solid target. Having a receiver capable of 1,000 yards and around 7 scores in the 14th round gives you a big boost on draft day over your competitors.

11. Julio Jones, ATL (1st Round)- Score: 61.32

In 2015, Julio caught 136 passes for 1,871 yards and eight scores. With a dominant run game keeping defenses on their toes, Matt Ryan was able to hit the physically dominant Julio Jones early and often. The Falcons were a top-eight team in pass attempts last season, and with no clear number two receiver in the fold still Jones will continue to dominate the targets in Atlanta. Ryan has supreme trust in Jones, so look for the duo to keep it going this year. Keep the first round talent in the first again this year; he has the potential to finish as the number one WR overall.

12. Jordy Nelson, GB (Nth Round)- Score: 60.41*

Jordy Nelson tore his ACL during training camp last season, causing him to miss the entire 2015 season. The move led the Packers offense to fall into a tailspin all year long. He is back and healthy this season however, and figures to bring the big-play ability back into the offense. In 2014 Nelson caught 98 passes for 1,519 yards and 13 scores from Rodgers, so look for him to get right back on track with his top WR once the season begins. With a slim Eddie Lacy in the fold keeping defenses honest, Nelson can get back to torching defenses again. Depending on if you drafted and held him, or picked him up as a free agent, he likely has plenty of value considering he is now a second round pick.

13. Eric Decker, NYJ (8th Round)- Score: 58.26

Decker was able to catch 80 passes for 1,027 yards and 12 scores last season. With Ryan Fitzpatrick back for another season, the WR2 production of Decker is more than likely to continue. With receiving running back Matt Forte the teams new starting RB, the Jets figure to pass even more as a team than they did last season, which bodes well for Decker’s fantasy value. Currently being drafted as a late-fourth to early-fifth round pick, Decker holds huge value being kept around the eighth, considering he is more than capable of double-digit TDs again.

14. Jarvis Landry, MIA (8th Round)- Score: 57.00

Jarvis Landry has caught more passes through his first two seasons than anyone else in history. In his sophomore season he caught 110 passes for 1,157 yards ands five scores. He also chipped in with 113 rushing yards, a rushing score, and a punt return for a TD. Landry is a jack of all trades for Miami; an offense that figures to be much improved in 2016 with offensive guru Adam Gase at the helm. DaVante Parker will be a competent deep-ball receiver, but Landry will still be Ryan Tannehill’s go-to guy in the flats and up the middle. The PPR monster is a third round pick in most leagues, and figures to do more damage this season. An eighth round value on Landry is just silly.

15. Amari Cooper, OAK (5th Round)- Score: 53.43

Amari Cooper was the most highly touted WR coming out of the NFL draft, and didn’t disappoint in his first season. The rookie caught 72 passes for 1,070 yards and six TDs. Coming into his sophomore year at age-22, Cooper has all the potential in the world to have a huge year with Derek Carr at the helm, who made big strides in his second year last season. The Raiders do have some other options on the field like Michael Crabtree, but Cooper easily has the might talent and highest fantasy potential of nay receiver on the roster. Cooper is a second round receiver this season, so you’re getting good value from him if you drafted him in his fifth round ADP last season. Cooper is going to be good for a long, long time.

 

More Keeper Valuation Columns

Top QB Keeper Values

Top RB Keeper Values

 

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




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