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Yusmeiro Petit: Sleeper Or Illusion?
Yusmeiro Petit shined for the Giants in 2014. As a spot starter and long reliever, he logged 117 innings with a 3.69 ERA, setting a new MLB record for most consecutive batters retired in the process. With Bruce Bochy apparently open to the idea of Petit wrestling a rotation spot from Tim Lincecum next season and the intended role for the recently signed Ryan Vogelsong still unclear, Petit's name has rightly been tossed around in frequent sleeper conversations. But how good is he?
As Fangraphs' Eno Sarris has explained, Petit owes his breakout principally to two things: an improved curveball and an incredibly unique delivery. After signing with the Giants in 2012, pitching coach Dave Righetti worked with Petit to refine his curveball. The result was tremendous:
| 2014 Curveball Stats | Times Thrown | Swing Rate | Swinging Strike Rate |
| 2012 | 11 | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| 2013 | 144 | 58.3% | 27.8% |
| 2014 | 400 | 61.8% | 28.5% |
With a fastball that only hovers around 88.7 mph, having a plus curveball to pair with his changeup was key for Petit. Before he joined the Giants, he never posted a strikeout rate much above 18%. In 2014 he struck out 28.9% of the batters he faced.
Part of what made this improved repertoire so successful, however, is Petit's incredibly unique set of mechanics. As Sarris demonstrated, Petit leads with his elbow during his throwing motion, completely obscuring the ball from the batter until the instant before releasing the pitch. In doing so, he makes it near impossible for the batter to get a sense of what's coming at them. This deceptiveness has served to make Petit a nightmare for opposing lineups.
It is somewhat ironic that my chief concern with Petit going forward stems from this reliance on deceptiveness, arguably his greatest strength as a pitcher. Having only started 20 games for the Giants over the course of three separate years, the majority of Petit's work has been limited to short stints out of the bullpen. Opposing hitters usually got only a single look at his stuff. Frankly, I'm not convinced Petit would be able to survive as a stable fantasy starter were hitters allowed a second look.
As a general rule, batters improve against pitchers over the course of a game. Each time the lineup turns over, a hitter gets a new look at a pitcher's stuff and adjustments can be made. While this happens to all pitchers, the degree to which batters improve against Petit in this regard is sobering:
| 2014 Stats | Batting Average | OBP | SLG | OPS | K/BB |
| 1st PA | .175 | .201 | .272 | .476 | 10.00 |
| 2nd PA | .277 | .299 | .515 | .814 | 8.33 |
| 3rd PA | .370 | .414 | .741 | 1.155 | 2.00 |
To put that last row of stats in context, Babe Ruth owns a .342/.474/.690 (1.164 OPS) career batting line.
In Summary
There's too much to like in Petit's arsenal for me to call him a bust candidate at this point, but my concerns do limit what I can project for him. Should he win the 5th starter's spot during Spring Training, I'm of the opinion that a pitcher with Petit's potential deserves to be drafted in all leagues.
The bigger issue is if I'll be comfortable with his ADP. Petit is the kind of fantasy asset who is tough to handicap before draft season. We'll learn more about when he's picked in February and March. Meanwhile, next year will decide if Petit is capable of getting hitters out with pure stuff as well as deception.
