Here we go again with the latest edition of the SP Waiver Wire guide, where we plead with the fantasy baseball gods to grant us the wisdom and opportunity to unearth gold. In other words, where we look at sabermetrics and utilize the ol’ eye-test to analyze some low-owned options to identify solid, and not-so-solid, pickups.

In case you didn’t know, it’s now June. This means that a third of the season is over and you should have a decent idea of how your team is trending in certain categories. Let’s see what’s out there, ignoring the guys who have been dropped due to legitimate struggles. Let’s set the bar at 40% owned, but do note that Mike Leake (49% Owned) has looked sharp this past month and Michael Fulmer (43% Owned) looks like the real deal.

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Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets

Colby Lewis (TEX, SP) – 40% Owned – Streaks like this are really upsetting. He’s doing better than usual for him yes, but he’s still getting incredibly lucky. I said don’t get him last week, and he goes out and pitches six scoreless innings with two strikeouts against the Indians. He had a .111 BABIP and 100% strand rate in that game. How does he keep getting away with this?

Don’t buy in, the smoke and mirrors are going to disappear and you’ll be left with the guy whose SIERA is 4.52. Again: his past three season’s ERAs (with SIERAs in parentheses): 5.18 (4.22), 4.66 (4.43) and 3.09 (4.52). There’s nothing different here outside of luck. Chase the horseshoe if you’d like, but be aware.

Jeremy Hellickson (PHI, SP) – 39% Owned – In his last 36 1/3 innings Hellboy has struck out 35 with four quality starts alongside a 2.72 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, though that doesn’t include Saturday’s start where he gave up three earned on seven hits and three walks in five innings. It’s tough to shake the image of his poor starts from years past, but he is still rocking a career-best swinging strike rate as well as a career-low walk rate (not including his 36 1/3 inning rookie cup of coffee). He’s a solid streamer, but certainly isn’t a must-start. He’ll miss the Cubs series and take on the Nationals on the road in his next start before facing the Blue Jays, making him a poor short-term option.

Kevin Gausman (BAL, SP) – 38% Owned – Gausman’s 0-3 record stinks, but he’s got 45 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings to go with a 3.78 ERA (3.66 SIERA) and 1.13 WHIP. That’s worth owning, even if he pitches in the AL East. That said, his current 1.70 HR/9 rate (it was 1.36 last season) is too high and much of the AL East will make him pay for it. His next start is at home against the Yankees on June 5, a worthy start.

Julio Urias (LAD, SP) – 35% Owned – Urias hasn’t dazzled in his first two Major League starts, but he’ll at least get a third start in a favorable matchup with the Rockies at home on June 7. The Rockies can perform well, but away from Coors Field they can definitely be toyed with. Urias will look to put it all together as he hopes to build a case for the future while Alex Wood is on the shelf.

CC Sabathia (NYY, SP) – 34% Owned – This is still a “thin ice” scenario, but he posted a 1.73 BB/9 in May after that figure was 4.64 in April, while his K/9 has gone up over two ticks to from 6.33 to 8.65. In other words, his K-BB% has gone from a measly 4% all the way to 20.6%, while his batting average against has sunk from .287 to .178. Great signals right? Well, his SIERA is still 4.25 on the year so the skepticism remains from my end, but he’ll look to prove himself again on June 5 against the Orioles in Camden Yards.

Matt Shoemaker (LAA, SP) – 30% Owned – He has rattled off three quality starts in a row while allowing only four earned runs in 22 2/3 innings alongside 31 strikeouts. Okay Matt, we see you. It’s worth noting that all three starts have been at home, but the Orioles, Astros and Tigers are not slouches (though they can strike out a lot). His next start comes in the Bronx against the Yankees on June 7, and at this point he’s a guy you want to start.

Matt Wisler (ATL, SP) – 28% Owned – Here’s another guy I really have a hard time trusting, who continues to throw eggs in my face with his good starts. He limited the Giants to three runs over seven innings on May 31 for his sixth straight quality start, and eighth out of his ten starts this season. His 4.47 SIERA says that 3.16 ERA is a sham, with his .232 BABIP being quite low despite a mighty high 38.2% hard hit rate. Just be careful out there. His next start is on June 5 against the Dodgers in LA, making for a solid test.

Jameson Taillon (PIT, SP) – 20% Owned – Taillon has been beasting all season long in Triple-A, leading all Triple-A pitchers with a 1.91 FIP while teammate Tyler Glasnow is fourth with a 2.61 FIP. That gap should tell you just how amazing Taillon has done, as he’s walked only 2.5% of batters faced (which also leads all Triple-A pitchers). At this point he looks more ready than Glasnow, whose 12.0% walk rate is fifth-highest in Triple-A. Control is a huge facet of pitching to have under one’s belt, and Taillon should be the #1 stash right now. Do remember that this is his first season pitching since 2013, and he already has 61 2/3 innings so Pittsburgh will only want to push him so far.

Anthony DeSclafani (CIN, SP) – 19% Owned – DeSclafani had some buzz coming into this season, but has yet to pitch in the Majors as he has at least one more rehab start to go. In four rehab starts he has struck out 17 while walking two in 16 innings, though he has given up four homers. The Reds might not provide the wins, but he’s a solid DL stash as he nears his return.

Zack Wheeler (NYM, SP) – 19% Owned – The target date for his return is now after the All Star Break so he can reenter the rotation with a consistent routine. His latest bullpen session saw him throw 25 pitches, and he was scheduled to throw a 30-pitch session on June 4 as he works up his pitch count. When the rehab assignment starts it will be his control that requires monitoring, as it wasn’t that great even before he had Tommy John surgery, but much can be forgiven when you strike out 187 in 185 1/3 innings as he did in 2014.

Archie Bradley (ARI, SP) – 19% Owned – The control is here! Rejoice! His strikeouts were never a question, though 23 in 19 1/3 innings with two wins is certainly lovely to see. Especially impressive was his 10-strikeout game against the Cubs in Wrigley Field, after his first start since being recalled was against the Padres. Respect this highly-touted young arm. His next start comes at home against the Rays, and he should be started in all leagues for as long as the walks stay down.

Junior Guerra (MIL, SP) – 17% Owned – Guerra posted quality starts in his past two outings, against the Cardinals and the Phillies, but unfortunately didn’t get the win in either (he actually lost the St. Louis game). He now has a 3-1 record to go with 39 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings alongside a nice 3.61 ERA and 3.50 FIP (his SIERA was 3.82 before his June 4 start). His next start comes at home against the Mets, as he appears to be a solid deep mixed-league streamer based on his results thus far.

Doug Fister (HOU, SP) – 17% Owned – Nothing flashy, but quality starts in eight of his past nine starts mean that he can definitely be useful for many of you. He won’t rack up Ks and pitching to contact can be a bit frightening with his underwhelming stuff, but he’s been successful before. Just be aware that his current 4.87 SIERA is well above his 3.51 ERA, so don’t be afraid to cut bait if you speculate and he blows up.

Jon Gray (COL, SP) – 15% Owned – I will stump for him until I’m blue in the face. His 3.56 SIERA and 25.5% K-rate mean that there’s so much potential here beneath that 5.76 ERA. Yes, I know he plays at Coors and so he’s essentially on an innings limit because many of his starts will have to be skipped by fantasy owners, but his upside is a double-digit strikeout pitcher who can dominate starts. His win against the red-hot Red Sox was particularly impressive, and his June 5 start in Petco against the Padres makes for a juicy one. After that he draws home start against the Pirates, which is probably a solid “avoid”.

Dan Straily (CIN, SP) – 13% Owned – Straily just turned in another quality start on June 4, giving up only two runs on two hits and two walks over seven innings against a strong Nationals lineup. His 3.34 ERA is hinging on a low .223 BABIP (.261 career mark) as his FIP stands at 4.43 with his SIERA hovering around there as well. His next start is a solid one though, at home against the A’s on June 10, so those capturing lightning in bottles have a green light here.

Danny Duffy (KC, SP) – 12% Owned – Duffy has reinvented himself a bit, averaging nearly 96 MPH on his fastball after posting 93 MPH figures in the past three seasons, and he now has 40 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings to go with a 3.44 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. His SIERA is even lower, sitting at a gorgeous 3.08 thus far thanks to an insane 16.4% swinging strike rate and 1.72 BB/9 mark. He’ll face the Orioles on June 6 in Baltimore next, a good test for that fastball of his.

Alex Cobb (TB, SP) – 12% Owned – A friendly stash reminder. His bullpen sessions have ramped up to 35 pitches and he finally started throwing breaking balls, with everyone eyeing July as the return date.

Alex Reyes (STL, SP) – 8% Owned – He has allowed only two runs in 15 Triple-A innings thus far, with an extremely impressive 26 strikeouts. This comes after striking out 52 in 34 2/3 innings last season in Double-A, which means the Ks are legit. He could very well come up and be an impact arm if a starter goes down, though control could be an issue. He walked 18 in those 34 2/3 innings last season and has walked seven in his 15 innings this year. Monitor his progression closely though, as his latest start was his most impressive, striking out 11 while walking only two in six innings. Nifty.

Sean Manaea (OAK, SP) – 6% Owned – Don’t look now, but Manaea has quietly posted consecutive quality starts, striking out eight with one earned run over six innings in his latest start against the Twins. It wasn’t all that long ago that folks were swooning over his potential, though he has scuffled in the early going. His next start comes on the road in Milwaukee against the Brewers on June 8, monitor that closely.

Ricky Nolasco (MIN, SP) – 3% Owned – Nolasco has fired off consecutive seven-strikeout games now after whiffing up some Rays on June 3. Striking out 60 in 65 2/3 innings while only walking 12 points to his strong 3.70 SIERA rather than that meh 4.93 ERA. Pay attention to those peripherals! Though Minnesota’s run support will still be a drag on his value. He’ll face the Marlins at home next on June 9.

Zach Davies (MIL, SP) – 3% Owned – Davies was very strong against the Cardinals at home on June 1, going eight scoreless while striking out nine. He is 3-0 in his past five starts, and has really started to turn it on after a poor start to his season. He posted a 3.81 ERA in May with a .224 batting average against before that dazzling start against the Cards. He won’t maintain the low BABIP from these recent starts, but is still a solid buy in NL-only leagues for his next start as he faces the A’s at home on June 7.

Chris Rusin (COL, SP) – 1% Owned – Rusin’s 4.62 ERA will scare most away, but like most Colorado pitchers, his 3.09 road ERA is much better than his Coors numbers. His 3.78 SIERA and 3.23 FIP point to a much more talented pitcher than just “some Coors Field no-name”. His inducing grounders at a 58.8% rate is the backbone of his value. His next start is a tricky one against the Dodgers in LA on June 8, but NL-only owners should file his name away.

John Lamb (CIN, SP) – 1% Owned – Lamb rebounded from a thumping at the hands of the Brewers to pitch seven innings of one-run ball against the Rockies in Coors Field on June 1. He’s not going to put your team over the top, but those in deeper NL-only leagues should keep tabs on him. His next start is at home against the Cardinals on June 7, and he’s probably best left on benches for that, though after that he draws the A’s at home.

 

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