RADIO
Welcome to the Super Bowl LVIII edition of the WR/CB Matchups article. Regular season fantasy leagues are over, but there are still plenty of opportunities to play other types of playoff contests. Hopefully, this article can help you make profitable decisions for the big game.
During the past three seasons, I have tweaked my process to make the chart more user-friendly and predictive, but NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week.
Even as the WR/CB matchups guy, your WR start/sit decisions should be based on these factors first:
1. Projection (this is your best answer to ALL decisions in the long run)
2. Skill of WR (correlates w/ target share)
3. QB/offense/pass rate
4. Defensive matchup https://t.co/Ucgy4Sg3Vd
— Andrew (@draft32teams) September 15, 2022
As a reminder, the process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1 last year, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquill Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.
The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green, and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Super Bowl LVIII
Click the image for a full-screen view
WR/CB Matchups to Target
The total of the Super Bowl is a healthy 47.5, with Patrick Mahomes on one side and an explosive group of playmakers on the other. There will likely be a good number of touchdowns scored, but it's possible most of them are on the ground. The Chiefs have one of the best secondaries in the league and both defenses have been gashed by opposing rushing attacks at times this season.
The easiest matchup of the week belongs to whichever Chiefs WRs line up outside. Rashee Rice plays more slot snaps than any other Chiefs WR, but he'll get plenty of work outside. He has a good matchup.
Role players Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling also have plus matchups against the 49ers' outside corners.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
Steve Spagnuolo's defense has been balling out, most recently shutting down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Kyle Shanahan has a loaded offense, so if the Chiefs choose to focus on slowing down Christian McCaffrey, things could open up for Brock Purdy. However, all 49ers receivers have a tough matchup based on the season-long data.
L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie have been elite all season, and they will likely take turns covering Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and even George Kittle. It's simply not a great matchup for any 49ers pass catcher.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week. Stay tuned for NFL Draft content in the coming weeks.
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