RADIO
While there are plenty of NFL teams that are expected to rotate their running backs this season, there are some teams where the No. 1 guy has a pretty major advantage over his projected backups.
Below are seven running backs who project to be the No. 2 guy on teams where the No. 1 guy has the clear-cut advantage heading into 2023. These are players that you should largely avoid in fantasy, outside of having exposure in formats like Best Ball to account for potential injury to the starter, or in redraft leagues if they fall below their ADP.
Read on to find out which names you might want to avoid in fantasy football drafts this upcoming season.
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Trayveon Williams - Cincinnati Bengals
I know people expected the Bengals to move on from Joe Mixon, but it's mid-July and they haven't yet. So I think it's safe to assume they'll go into the 2023 season with Mixon as their starting running back.
In fact, Mixon's likely heading into this year with a larger role than he had last season. Samaje Perine, who had 95 carries last year, is gone, leaving Trayveon Williams as Mixon's primary backup. Williams had just six carries last season. He's now had just 47 carries and 10 targets in four seasons with the Bengals. I guess maybe a late breakout could occur here, but as it stands right now, I don't really see Williams posing a threat to Mixon.
Maybe rookie Chase Brown can pass Williams on the depth chart and siphon off some usage, but unless the Bengals add an outside player at the position before the start of the season, it looks like Mixon's heading for a season of high usage.
Jerome Ford - Cleveland Browns
The Browns gave Kareem Hunt 123 carries and 44 targets last season, but let him walk in free agency. Now, Nick Chubb's backup is Jerome Ford, who had eight carries for 12 yards as a rookie.
Sure, Ford could surprise us by having a productive sophomore campaign in the NFL, but it would also make sense for Cleveland to phase out that Hunt role. Chubb remained productive last season, averaging 5.0 yards per carry while seeing his second-most attempts per game in his career, 17.8. He also saw his role in the receiving game grow, as he had 37 targets, his most since 2019.
The Browns added Elijah Moore to beef up their receiving game, and I expect quarterback Deshaun Watson to throw more than he did in his six starts last season. He averaged just 183.7 yards per game in 2022, down from 301.4 in his final season with the Texans. I just don't see the No. 2 running back role in Cleveland having much value.
Jaylen Warren - Pittsburgh Steelers
Last season, Jaylen Warren played 16 of 17 games as the backup to Najee Harris, finishing with 77 carries for 379 yards and one touchdown, while Harris had 272 carries.
The Steelers also finished last season with the ninth-fewest passing yards in the NFL and ranked 16th in pass attempts. Meanwhile, they were 10th in rushing attempts.
I expect some movement in those numbers, as the Steelers added Allen Robinson II this offseason to bolster the receiving unit. Assuming Harris is healthy and the team throws more, it's hard to see Warren being able to surpass last season's numbers.
Zack Moss - Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor didn't manage to repeat his 2021 results in 2022, as he was limited to 11 games and saw his rushing yards per game drop from a league-best 106.5 down to 78.3.
Meanwhile, Moss played well in his eight games with the Colts, with 76 of his 93 carries coming in that span. He averaged 45.6 yards per game.
But in the five games that Moss played with Taylor also in the lineup, he wasn't much of a factor. Per RotoViz, Moss averaged just 2.24 PPR points per game in those five contests, with 6.2 attempts per game for an average of 22.4 yards. When Taylor was on the field, Moss wasn't a huge factor, and I expect that trend to continue in 2023.
Tyjae Spears - Tennessee Titans
While I do think this might be the best chance yet for Henry to lose some touches and not utterly dominate the backfield as he has in recent years, I don't necessarily think that means his backup has fantasy value. [Want some thoughts on Henry's role? I wrote about him last month in my piece on veteran running backs set to lose touches.]
While Spears appears to be a talented player based on his college track record, you simply don't have much value when you're playing behind the guy who's led the NFL in rushing attempts in three of the last four years. Yes, Henry had a drop in efficiency last year. And yes, Spears probably surpasses the 25 carries that backup Hassan Haskins saw last season, as the Titans should probably start to think more about keeping Henry fresh. But none of that means Spears has fantasy value. He might cut into Henry's ceiling, but he doesn't have standalone upside unless there's a Henry injury.
Ty Chandler - Minnesota Vikings
With Dalvin Cook gone, it looks like Alexander Mattison is about to be handed the reins to the Vikings backfield. And if the six-game sample we have of games where Mattison played and Cook didn't is any indication, Mattison will have a pretty wide gap over the rest of the backfield.
In those six games, Mattison has averaged 20.38 PPR points, with 19.5 carries per game for 79.5 yards. Essentially, with Cook out, Mattison took the Cook role. And with Cook in the lineup, Mattison averaged just 5.42 carries per game.
Narrow it down to the current coaching regime and the numbers are even more stark. With Cook playing every game, Mattison averaged 4.35 rushing attempts, 16.65 yards, and 5.2 PPR points last year. Being the No. 2 back for Minnesota wasn't a good role, regardless of how good Mattison looked in the games where he was handed the lead role.
I don't really see that changing in 2023 either. Ty Chandler has six career carries. Kene Nwangwu has 22 career carries. DeWayne McBride is a seventh-round rookie. Barring a free-agency addition who might actually have some chops, Mattison should dominate this backfield.
Whoever New England's Backup Is
Is it Ty Montgomery? Pierre Strong Jr.? Kevin Harris? J.J. Taylor? I don't really know! It's long been said to never trust a Bill Belichick running back in fantasy, but the post-Tom Brady years have changed that mantra. Rhamondre Stevenson enters 2023 as the unquestioned lead back for this New England team, and the fact that there's no standout behind him just reinforces that. You can trust a Patriots running back in 2023.
I mean...look at these backups. Montgomery finished with negative rushing yards last year. Strong had 17 touches. Harris had 18. Taylor had 11. Meanwhile, Stevenson had a 1,000-yard season and averaged 13.17 carries per game in the three games that Damien Harris missed. This is Stevenson's backfield. Don't expect any of the current backups to challenge that.
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