Welcome to another round of the SP Waiver Wire guide, where hopefully we can help you navigate those lesser-owned starting pitchers for better or worse. Perhaps you’re struggling through starts from Matt Harvey, Dallas Keuchel and Sonny Gray, well most of these guys can help you out, but we'll also identify a few land mines.

May is practically over, and having two months in the books is a pretty good time to really evaluate your team and cut bait on those who have done you wrong thus far. Let’s see what’s out there, ignoring the guys who have been dropped due to legitimate struggles. Let’s set the bar at 40% owned, but for what it’s worth Alex Wood (45% owned), Nathan Eovaldi (43% owned) and Kevin Gausman (43% owned) should be owned.

Editor’s Note: to read about even more waiver wire options, be sure to check out our famous waiver wire pickups list which is a running list that is updated daily. Prefer using your phone? Our free waiver wire app is available for download in the Apple & Android Stores.

 

Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets

Tyler Chatwood (COL, SP) – 40% Owned – Chatwood notched his sixth win of the season by throwing seven “scoreless” (he allowed an unearned run) innings against the Giants…at home. Yes, Mr. Road Warrior had a strong start at Coors Field to lower his ERA to 2.69 and his WHIP to 1.15 on the season. I will still preach caution as his rates really don’t point to this much growth, and his SIERA is actually still an average 4.03 on the year. He is walking less and inducing grounders at nearly a 60% clip, which are fantastic signs, but he’s not a 2.69 ERA guy. His next start is at home, but at least it’s against the Reds.

Colby Lewis (TEX, SP) – 36% Owned – THIS IS ME SAYING DON’T FOLLOW THIS TREND. His ownership rates are climbing thanks to a torrid streak of six straight quality starts, but rest assured he is the same Colby Lewis that you’ve ignored in years past. His past three ERAs (with this season last): 5.18, 4.66, 3.38. His past three SIERAs: 4.22, 4.43, 4.37. He is riding a career-high strand rate, but other than that his numbers under the hood are basically identical, oh except he’s allowing more hard contact, I almost forgot (39.1% this season from 33.3% last season). Don’t fall for this.

Nathan Karns (SEA, SP) – 35% Owned – Karns is over-performing a bit, as his 3.53 ERA is backed by a 3.94 SIERA, but he still is riding a career-best 10.2% swinging strike rate to a strikeout per inning and a 4-1 record. He won’t be able to regularly work deep into games with his control woes, but his stuff is legitimate enough where he can be useful in deeper leagues. His next start is a great draw, at home against the Padres on May 30.

Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD, SP) – 33% Owned - He’s begun his rehab assignment and is looking solid so far, pitching four scoreless innings where he scattered four hits with zero walks and three strikeouts, and should have two more starts before rejoining the Dodgers. It would be wise to stash him now before he hits, as his value may be highest right before he comes back or right after his first start if it goes very well. SP thirsty owners will pay out of the nose for a new toy in the middle of the season, just keep those fingers crossed that he doesn't encounter any setbacks.

Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS, SP) – 30% Owned – Speaking of setbacks, E-Rod suffered one a few weeks ago, but now appears locked and loaded to make his 2016 debut against the Baltimore Orioles on May 31. He pitched quite well last season for a rookie, especially if you take away the starts where he was shelled due to tipping his pitches.

Matt Wisler (ATL, SP) – 26% Owned – His 3.08 ERA and 1.03 WHIP are putting him on radars, but his 4.30 SIERA and .237 BABIP (.298 last season) should give speculators pause. His 37.7% hard hit rate makes the low BABIP very tough to believe in, and while his walk rate sits at a healthy 2.20 BB/9, I expect the surface ratios to regress at any moment. His next start is at home against the Giants on May 31.

Zack Wheeler (NYM, SP) – 19% Owned – He felt okay after throwing 10 fastballs off of the rubber on May 23 in his step back towards playing. The hopeful target date is early July, and a spot in the Mets rotation against the NL East can pave the way for some golden opportunities. Command will be critical, as it wasn’t that great even before he had Tommy John surgery, but don’t forget that he struck out 187 in 185 1/3 innings back in 2014.

Michael Fulmer (DET, SP) – 18% Owned – Fulmer has now put together consecutive strong starts with only one earned run in 14 2/3 innings alongside 14 strikeouts. He has plenty of talent beneath the surface shown thus far, and now it is beginning to shine forth. His 3.97 ERA has a 3.47 SIERA behind it, so he has earned some faith. He has a good matchup against the Angels on the road on June 1 next.

CC Sabathia (NYY, SP) – 12% Owned – I cannot believe I’m writing this, but here we are. This has been going around: “Since August 6th of last season, CC Sabathia has made 16 starts throwing 91.1 innings with a 2.84 ERA and ~7.5 K/9.” While I recognize that he seems to be learning how to work with what he’s got, his SIERA is still 4.22 on the season, while it was 4.08 last season. His FIP is 2.97 though, which is probably greatly helped by his 0.22 HR/9 (career 0.87, last season it was 1.51). Tread carefully.

Junior Guerra (MIL, SP) – 12% Owned – It’s tough to trust older guys who seemingly come out of nowhere, but the 31-year-old has a 3.30 ERA (3.94 SIERA) and a 1.13 WHIP with 30 strikeouts in 30 innings to go with a 3-0 record. His 12.8% swinging strike rate is impressive, though his 12 walks are a bit troubling. His next start is a tough one, at home against the Cardinals on May 30, but he's worth monitoring in deeper leagues, especially if he beats St. Louis.

Tyler Duffey (MIN, SP) – 11% Owned – Duffey’s 2-3 record is more about the Twins and less about him. He has tallied a useful 30 Ks in 36 2/3 innings with a 3.93 ERA (3.83 SIERA) while showing growth in the control department. His 1.96 BB/9 is much better than his 3.10 BB/9 from last season, though his swinging strike rate has fallen from 9.8% to 8.3%. His last two starts have been tough assignments against Toronto and Kansas City, but a road start against Oakland on May 31 should be a nice matchup.

Dan Straily (CIN, SP) – 10% Owned – Straily has outstanding stats on the surface, warranting some attention from deep league owners, but the 2.98 ERA has a “blah” 4.16 SIERA behind it. This is mostly due to his 3.98 BB/9, as he’s been able to dance around some seriously volatile innings thus far. His 52 strikeouts in 54 1/3 innings are solid, but do be careful banking on his .225 BABIP moving forward. His next start is in Coors against the Rockies on May 31, which I doubt many of you were banking on anyway.

Jon Gray (COL, SP) – 9% Owned – He hurt a lot of owners by allowing nine runs against the Cardinals on May 19 after throwing three straight quality starts (with 24 strikeouts in 20 innings). Expectations were low heading into a very difficult matchup against the red-hot Red Sox in Fenway Park on May 26 as a result, but Gray dazzled. After allowing a two-run homer to David Ortiz, he clamped down and went scoreless the rest of the way, striking out six over 7 1/3 innings to notch the win. His next start is at home against the Reds. He should be owned in many more leagues than this.

Alex Reyes (STL, SP) – 7% Owned – He’s returned from his suspension to continue his dominance of minor league hitting. He has allowed one run in nine innings with 15 strikeouts thus far, after striking out 52 in 34 2/3 innings last season in Double-A. That means you pay attention. He could very well come up should a starter go down and would immediately be an impact player. He may need to prove his control is up to snuff first though, as he walked 18 in those 34 2/3 innings last season and has already walked five in his nine innings this year. Monitor his progression closely.

Matt Shoemaker (LAA, SP) – 6% Owned – His past two starts demand our attention. He’s dominated the Orioles and the Astros with 23 strikeouts and zero walks with only two earned runs in 15 2/3 innings of work. His next start is a tricky one against the Tigers at home, but he’s a strong buy in AL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues for now.

Ivan Nova (NYY, SP) – 5% Owned – AL-only owners would do well to take note of Nova, even though his latest start didn’t move the needle in a favorable direction. He allowed four runs in 6 2/3 innings while striking out eight against the Blue Jays on May 25, but that’s pretty solid against a potent Toronto lineup, let alone that his prior three starts had seen him only allow one run in each outing. He’s only walked five in 37 innings and has an incredible 63.6% groundball rate, checking off a few boxes on the “pay attention to me” list. That said, he takes on the Blue Jays again in Toronto on May 30 and then would be scheduled for a road start in Baltimore, making for two tough matchups.

 

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