October 11, 2015

Zach Wilkens analyzes the Week 5 NFL matchups for 2015, and provides fantasy football start/sit advice (part 1). Set your optimal lineups based on fantasy football matchups.

Zach Wilkens breaks down the first half of the Week 5 matchups for the 2015 NFL football season. Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find part one of our Week 5 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis, breaking down the later slate of games.

Bears @ Chiefs - Sunday 10/11 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs - Jamaal Charles is the only RB to put up a top 12 week in each of the first four weeks. You really think the Bears can stop that?

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears - Cutler really surprised in his return from injury. First I wasn’t expecting him to play, then I wasn’t expecting him to play well - he ended up playing very well. The Chiefs have actually given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Sure that was helped by Aaron Rodgers’ 5 touchdown day, but they’ve given up over 300 passing yards in three games and over 250 in the other. Jay Cutler is a borderline QB1 here and a good stream.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Chiefs - In the three games that the Bears have faced a fantasy relevant WR1 (aka I’m excluding Doug Baldwin here) that WR has scored at least 1 touchdown. The Bears don’t come close to having a shutdown corner so Maclin should have a very nice game.

Matchups We Hate:

Matt Forte, RB, Bears - This is a mild hate. He is still an RB1 just not a top 3 RB this week. Prior to giving up 4 rushing touchdowns last week, the Chiefs had allowed zero through three games. They’ve also allowed just 9 RB receptions, third fewest in the league.

Notable Players:

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs - Kelce has been fairly ordinary since his two touchdown performance in Week 1. This past week was his first bad week thanks to a fumble. I expect him to bounce back, he’s due for a touchdown.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears - I thought he would return last week but that didn’t happen. I’m now *hoping* this is the week he’ll be back and it is a nice matchup. Still, not knowing whether he’ll be 100% I have him as an alright WR2 play. He should definitely be in lineups if active though.

Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears - The Chiefs are pretty good against tight ends but you can be sure Bennett will see plenty of looks with Jay Cutler throwing. That is enough to make him a good start here.

Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs - He should have another respectable day in a nice matchup. He never dominates but he is coming off a career high in passing yards. Smith is QB12 on the season and he should finish this week in that QB12-15 range.

Eddie Royal, WR, Bears - Had a nice Week 4 with Alshon out but he will take a hit if Alshon is back. Still it’s a nice matchup so I think he can be a decent flex play here.

Seahawks @ Bengals - Sunday 10/11 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

None. These are two tough teams. There are certainly guys you’ll have in your lineup but don’t expect a big day from any of them.

Matchups We Hate:

A.J. Green, WR, Bengals - This one is obvious. The only receiver to really have a good game against the Seahawks so far was Randall Cobb. Green is nothing more than a WR2 here and he should be matched up against Richard Sherman.

Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals - The Seahawks domination of WRs extends past the WR1. The only WR to score against the Seahawks so far was James Jones, a WR2, but it was also his lone catch of that night. I can’t expect anything from Jones here. That said I do still like him going forward.

Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals - It stands to reason that If I expect his WRs to be shut out, I’m not going to like Dalton either. I do think Dalton has taken a step forward this year and he’ll probably be a top ten QB on the season (maybe even better than that!) but that doesn’t mean he is startable here. One bright spot if you have to start Dalton: The Seahawks actually have ZERO interceptions on the season.

Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals - I was really glad to see a big game from Hill. He’s going to have a tough time here. The Seahawks have not given up a rushing touchdown to an RB yet. Game flow is also an issue. If the Bengals are behind, Hill will be used significantly less. He is a low-end RB2.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks - Assuming he plays it’s a tough matchup. Along with the Seahawks, the Bengals are one of four teams that haven’t allowed an RB rushing touchdown yet. Lynch may not even be 100% or see his normal full workload if active. He’s probably in your lineups but I’m a little nervous if I’m starting him.

Notable Players:

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks - Wilson hasn’t delivered an awful game yet but he hasn’t shined like I hoped either. I don’t think it happens here either but the Seahawks may need him to step up to win here. Definitely startable, just expect more of what we’ve seen so far and not a top-5 week.

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks - I’m sure Graham owners are disappointed with what they’ve gotten so far. It’s pretty much touchdown or bust and that wasn’t close to the case in New Orleans where he averaged 1,100 yards over the past four years. Graham is currently on pace for just 700 yards. It may yet turn around but the Bengals have been very good against tight ends so far. He’s still in your lineup though.

Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals - The tight end position is the one spot where the Seahawks have shown a bit of a weakness this year. They have allowed two touchdowns to tight ends and Eric Ebron had a couple nice catches in Week 4 before getting hurt. I think Eifert is actually very startable here.

Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals - Gio’s best shot at relevance in this game is to get a bunch of receptions while the Bengals attempt to come from behind. I certainly think that is a possibility. I think Gio is a low-end RB2 in PPR leagues and a flex in standard.

Doug Baldwin & Jermaine Kearse, WRs, Seahawks - I don’t really trust either of them. Kearse has hit between 75 to 85 yards in three games already but has no touchdowns and isn’t getting enough targets for me to be confident that continues. Not to mention his other game was a zero. Baldwin on the other hand has both Seahawks WR touchdowns but has only had 35 or 36 yards in three of four games. A+ for consistency but that isn’t a startable player.

Redskins @ Falcons - Sunday @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Julio Jones, WR, Falcons - I didn’t think it was possible, but Julio Jones did have a quiet week last week. I still see him as nearly uncoverable and I think he’ll be back to great here.

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons - The Redskins secondary doesn’t scare anyone. Ryan should have a top five day here.

Matchups We Hate:

Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons - I’m calling it, Freeman falls back to Earth this week, hard. Believe it or not, the Redskins are allowing the fewest points to opposing running backs. They’ve given up just one RB touchdown. Not to mention Tevin Coleman looks like he will be active and they still like him. If you’re a Freeman owner you are almost certainly still starting him after the last two weeks but expect more of the Freeman we’ve come to know prior to Week 3.

Notable Players:

Pierre Garcon & Desean Jackson, WRs, Redskins - It looks like Djax will play and that’s bad news for Garcon. Garcon has averaged over 8 targets per game and that is sure to come down, that makes him a poor play as he was only averaging 55 yards a game as it was. If Djax does miss the game, Garcon is a PPR flex. If Djax plays he’ll be very boom/bust and I consider him a flex in all formats.

Alfred Morris & Matt Jones, RBs, Redskins - After Matt Jones led the team in touches and outsnapped Alf in Week 3, Alf stormed back to more than double Jones’ touch and snap totals last week. The situation is a mess and I’m avoiding it entirely. With the Falcons expected to win easily, I should mention that Chris Thompson is a nice PPR play in deeper leagues.

Derek Carrier, TE, Redskins - I’m intrigued by Carrier. He is an exceptional athlete who was beyond dominant in college at the D-III level. He played 56 snaps last week and got 2 catches for 18 yards. If you need to take a flier at the TE position this week, I’d go with Carrier.

Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons - Coleman should return this week but at best he’ll split carries with Devonta Freeman. I think he is very talented and worth holding onto, but not startable after Freeman’s offensive outburst.

Leonard Hankerson, WR, Falcons - I’m liking Hank more and more. He’s had some bad drops but he has no problem getting open. I think he is a very nice flex play.

Jaguars @ Buccaneers - Sunday @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars - Robinson has had a couple tough matchups vs Josh Norman and Vontae Davis so far. There is no such threat on the Bucs. Expect a big day.

T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jaguars - I expect the Jags to at least keep this game close which is always good for Yeldon’s number of touches. Second, the Bucs have given up over 100 RB rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in 3 of their 4 games. After his first big game last week, expect another here.

Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars - The Bucs haven’t allowed a lot of passing yards but they have given up 8 passing touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. Those 8 passing touchdowns are tied for 5th most in the league. That makes Bortles a low-end QB1 here.

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers - Mike Evans struggled on a pitch count in Week 2, then had a nice 100 yard game in Week 3 before getting shut out by CB Josh Norman last week - the same guy that shut down Allen Robinson in Week 1. I’m not worried about Evans and I am expecting bigger things the rest of the way. Start him.

Matchups We Hate:

Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers - The Jaguars are surprisingly stingy against the run. They allow just 3.3 YPC to running backs. They have allowed 4 rushing touchdowns but all of those were by the Patriots. Outside of that game, no one has rushed for more than 56 yards against the Jags.

Notable Players:

Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars - As long as Allen Robinson isn’t completely covered he will be the one getting a ton of targets, not Hurns like it was last week. That said, he is still a flex play in a nice matchup here.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers - Vjax had a big game last week with 10 catches for 147 yards on 14 targets but I am still very confident that Evans is the top receiver here. Vjax is a low-end WR2 here. Both WRs will get plenty of looks but Evans will be the favored receiver.

Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers - Winston is an alright start this week. I certainly don’t expect him to get destroyed like he did in Week 4 but I don’t have much confidence in him either. There are probably better options on the waiver.

Saints @ Eagles - Sunday 10/11 @ 1PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Drew Brees, QB, Saints - The Eagles are giving up 285 passing yards per game and Brees has thrown for over 350 yards in two of his three starts. I expect another 300 yard day with a couple of touchdowns at least.

Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles - The love is mild here because Ertz hasn’t done much this year but the Saints are giving up the third most points to opposing tight ends. The positive for Ertz is that he is still outsnapping Brent Celek (38 snaps to 19 in Week 4 according to PFF). You shouldn’t feel confident if Ertz is in your lineup but I do see him as startable this week.

Matchups We Hate:

Mark Ingram, RB, Saints - The Eagles are one of four teams yet to allow a rushing touchdown and no RB has hit 100 rushing yards against them. Ingram is still very startable here and could certainly be the first RB to score but temper expectations.

Notable Players:

Sam Bradford, QB, Eagles - Bradford finally broke through for a big game last week but there were still some issues as he completed just 53.6% of his passes. This makes me a little wary of Bradford still. Bradford is a low-end QB1 with upside.

Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles - I think if Bradford has a big game again Jordan Matthews will be involved this time. He’s still seen at least 7 targets every game and this is a pretty good matchup. There are certainly questions about the entire offense but Matthews should be a good start.

DeMarco Murray & Ryan Mathews, RBs, Eagles - Murray was more involved than Mathews last week and I think that will remain the case. Of course on the whole no Eagles RB had more than 10 touches. That’s a problem as far as fantasy relevance is concerned. Murray did have a 4.5 YPC last week and I still like him but he needs more touches to be worthy of a start. I see him as an RB2 while Mathews should be on the bench until if/when he is clearly ahead of Murray.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints - Cooks has been a serious disappointment so far. If you want to look at the positives he still leads the Saints in snaps and targets by quite a bit. The Eagles definitely struggle against WRs so this is as good a game as any for Cooks to breakout but even then I still have him as just a low WR2.

Willie Snead, WR, Saints - Not only has Snead absolutely blown by Brandon Coleman, he also was on the field more than Marques Colston last week. I’m very impressed with what he’s done so far. I’m still not 100% sold so I think you’d have to be in pretty bad shape to start him but I am definitely intrigued.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Saints - Spiller finally had a huge play which is something we all knew he was capable of, it was just a matter of when it would happen. That said, the Saints are very slowly easing him into the offense. He was only in on just 28% of snaps last week but did see five targets. In fact he has caught all eight of his targets on the season. I think he is a good PPR flex play but his lack of playing time means I’m staying away for now in standard.

Browns @ Ravens - Sunday 10/11 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens - Forsett finally had a big game to partially remove his name from the long list of RB disappointments this season. The Browns have really struggled against RBs this year. I like Forsett’s chances for a big game here after seeing Danny Woodhead - a similarly small back with great catching ability - get 138 yards on 12 touches last week.

Matchups We Hate:

Gary Barnidge, TE, Browns - Barnidge is one of those players where I really have no interest in the player alone but he has seen quite a few targets the past two weeks and that makes him intriguing. Yet this is an awful matchup for him. For all the other problems the Ravens have had, they have dominated tight ends. They have allowed 31 yards to tight ends through four games. That wows me. They’ve faced good players too (Tyler Eifert and Heath Miller). You’d have to be super desperate to start Barnidge here.

Notable Players:

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens - Flacco has been a headache for me this season. I didn’t like him against the Bengals and he had a huge day and I was optimistic last week and he struggled against the Steelers. This week without Steve Smith I’m staying away, so take that for what you will. There is just such a lack of talent at receiver right now that I struggle to see how he’ll have a good game. In his two big weeks the gameplan was to just throw to Steve Smith on every other throw - literally (Smith had 16 and 17 targets those two games). It’s no surprise Flacco struggled last week without him.

Kamar Aiken, WR, Ravens - It looks like Aiken will slide into the top role. Unfortunately that probably means Joe Haden. Haden hasn’t been a total shutdown corner this year but if he plays I am shying away from Aiken. Haden is dealing with a broken finger and if he’s out I do think Aiken is a very good flex. I bet he sees 10 targets if only because there is no one else to throw to.

Isaiah Crowell & Duke Johnson, RBs, Browns - These two are pretty gameflow dependent and that is better news for Duke Johnson as the Browns will be playing from behind more often than they find themselves ahead. Duke has been heavily involved as a receiver the past two games and I expect that to continue. He is very startable in PPR formats. I think this could be a close game which bodes well for Crowell but I’m avoiding him here in a tough matchup - the Ravens have been pretty good against the run.

Travis Benjamin, WR, Browns - Benjamin has seen 10 targets in each of the past two games and that is a great sign. The Ravens are giving up the second most fantasy points to WRs but it’s been a split story so far. They have played very well against the Broncos and Steelers and played awful against the Raiders and Bengals. Not knowing what exactly to expect I think Benjamin is a flex play.

Rams @ Packers - Sunday 10/11 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers - You’d think with the defensive line the Rams have RBs would have a terrible time against the Rams. That hasn’t been the case. RBs have a 4.4 YPC against the Rams while they are also getting nearly 60 rec yards per game. Even if Eddie Lacy did struggle running the ball I think he’ll be involved in the passing game. Rodgers will need to get the ball out quick at times which is good for Lacy.

Todd Gurley, RB, Rams - Gurley wowed in his first significant playing time and that makes me excited for the rookie going forward. There are still offensive line problems for this team but if Gurley can run that well against the Cardinals he should have no problem against the Packers.

Matchups We Hate:

Rams WRs - Not that you were likely starting any in the first place but the Packers are giving up the fourth fewest points to WRs. Jeremy Maclin is the only WR to really dominate against the Packers so far. A Rams WR may certainly score but I have no confidence in which one it will be.

Notable Players:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers - This is far from an easy matchup but if anyone can handle it, it’s Rodgers. Rodgers played well against the Seahawks and even though they were Kam Chancellor-less at the time, that makes me feel pretty good about him here.

Randall Cobb & James Jones, WRs, Packers - Again, it’s a tough matchup but these guys should be alright. I’m thinking Rodgers will need to get it out quick against the pressure the Rams defensive line will bring and that benefits Cobb more. I haven’t been a big James Jones fan but he’s been scoring all over so you’d have to have really good options to bench him.

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]