RADIO
So you probably noticed that Week 4 felt a lot more "normal" compared to that Week 3 carnival of points. Unless you double dipped on Devonta Freeman, in which case we should be best friends and talk a lot on Saturdays.
Week 5 looks to have a plenty of studs in A+ matchups - which means digging deep for cheap contrarian plays is that much more important as you pay up to get Julio Jones against a terrible Washington secondary, or LeVeon Bell against the Chargers as a Monday night hammer.
Who is going to be that low owned cheap play that is the difference maker this time around? Let's get dirty.
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Week 5 Quarterback Sleepers
Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: $5,300 - @KC
Smokin' Jay might see more ownership than projected because people will chase the big green 32nd next to the Kansas City name, representing how they've performed against opposing quarterbacks. Yeah, it hasn't been good. To be fair they've gone against Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Andy Dalton, so it's not entirely their fault. All the same, here is situation where gameflow and the plan of attack should benefit Jay Cutler and scoring fantasy points. The Chiefs are still good against the run, and the Bears still struggle at running the ball. They just lost their starting center Will Montgomery to a broken leg, so they'll be even worse at trying to pave the way for Matt Forte now. On top of this, the defense is still porous, and the Chiefs should be able to execute their Jamaal Charles oriented attack fairly easily. If Cutler gets Alshon Jeffery back, then I really like this play. Cutler will throw an interception, but he could also give you 300 yards and 3 touchdowns on top of that. Sign me up.
Josh McCown, QB, Browns: $5,100 - @BAL
My computer wanted to run a virus scan after I typed that. I feel ill. Seriously folks, McCown has actually played well these past two weeks. Sure, the image of him being helicoptered by the Jets in Week 1 is seared pretty deeply in my mind, but the Browns seem to finding a groove. Travis Benjamin appears to be sticking around, and Gary Barnidge isn't going away either. The key factor seems to be the involvement of Duke Johnson Jr. in the passing game, as he has 15 receptions in the past two weeks, totaling 117 yards and a touchdown in those contests. The Ravens have been struggling against quarterbacks, getting beaten up by Derek Carr and Andy Dalton, and failing to shut down Mike Vick. If you're willing to roll the dice that McCown can continue to be effective, this is a great spot to save some money while having a good shot at getting 3x-4x value back for the money you spent.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Sam Bradford, $6,000 vs. NO, Blake Bortles, $5,100 @TB.
Week 5 Running Back Sleepers
C.J. Spiller, RB, Saints: $3,800 – @PHI
It's possible that C.J. Spiller's long game winning play on Sunday night will crank up the spotlight on Spiller, but the Saints being on the road and Brees' still ailing along with questions of sustainability outside of big plays should keep that ownership level tempered. The Eagles are playing exceptionally well against the run (fourth overall according to ProFootballFocus with a 20.6 grade), while their pass coverage grade doesn't instill much confidence with an average -1.1 grade. The Saints defense also is not going to keep this game all that close, and while Mark Ingram has seen his usage in the passing game increase, if the Saints need to really start going for some home runs as they fall behind, C.J. Spiller will see plenty of snaps and targets.
T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jaguars: $4,400 – @TB.
This is going to be a very intriguing game, because there are so many mistakes that could be made at the hands of both quarterbacks. Here are the facts though, PFF grades the Buccaneers out as the worst against the run with a pathetic -26.2 grade. T.J. Yeldon is THE guy in Jacksonville, he played 78 out of 84 snaps last week in a close game against the Colts. He hasn't had his real "coming out party" game yet, and his name is flanked by buzzy options in Chris Johnson and Todd Gurley in the DraftKings lobby. If you need a tournament play that goes against the grain but could turn in a 25-125-2 line, here's your guy.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Chris Thompson, $3,300 @ATL, Boobie Dixon, $3,000 @TEN (Dan Herron is not available), Theo Riddick, $3,000 @ARI, Lorenzo Taliaferro, $3,000 vs. CLE.
Week 5 Wide Receiver Sleepers
Leonard Hankerson, WR, Falcons: $4,000 - vs. WAS
Remember when I said how Julio Jones has that great matchup? Well Leonard Hankerson gets the same one. While Julio is matchup proof, it still benefits him that DeAngelo Hall is out and injuries have shuffled things for Washington. On the season though, the Redskins rank out as ninth best against opponents' number one receivers according to FootballOutsiders DVOA stat, while they struggle mightily against the number two receivers (29th). While plenty of people are going to stack Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, sneaking in a Ryan/Hankerson stack that goes off could be a huge separator in tournaments (and allow you to spend the money saved elsewhere).
Willie Snead, WR, Saints: $3,000 – @PHI
Snead has come along nicely for New Orleans, and he ended up having the second most snaps for New Orleans' receivers in Week 4. He's seen six targets in each of the past three games for the Saints, and now appears to have leapfrogged Brandon Coleman and Marques Colston for playing time. Last week's game saw Snead rack up six receptions for 89 yards. As stated in Spiller's blurb, the Saints should find themselves playing from behind and needing to take shots. To date, Brandin Cooks, Brandon Coleman, and Marques Colston have all failed to impress, while Snead has impressed. Take a tournament shot on the lone bright spot in the wide receiver corps in a game that should see the Saints needing to throw. Don't stack Spiller and Snead, but taking one of them could pay off in a big way.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Allen Robinson, $5,500 @TB, John Brown, $5,100 @DET, Kamar Aiken, $3,800 vs. CLE.
Week 5 Tight End Sleepers
Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers: $4,100 - vs. PIT
Just have to throw this out, as Gates is back but priced low. He is not coming off of injury, he has an established chemistry with Philip Rivers, the Chargers are banged up with Stevie Johnson and Malcom Floyd getting hurt last week, and Gates is the favorite for red zone looks when he's on the field. Be aware.
Derek Carrier, TE, Redskins: $2,500 - @ATL
Well, Jordan Reed is hurt again. Enter Derek Carrier. It's a real punt type play, but just because Jordan Reed is out now doesn't mean that all of a sudden Kirk Cousins won't instinctively look for his tight end just as he is accustomed to doing. The Falcons should have their way with the Washington secondary as has been pointed out, so Washington should need to throw. If Carrier catches a touchdown, he automatically makes 3x value on his minimum salary. The potential for 4x-5x value on your money is there with Carrier.
Tim Wright, TE, Lions: $2,500 - @ ARI
What was just said about Derek Carrier can also be valid for Tim Wright. The Lions are in a spot where their secondary is really struggling (their run defense has graded out at 13.3 according to PFF, while their pass coverage has gotten a -12.5 grade). Carson Palmer and company should open up their aerial assault, and the Lions should find themselves needing to throw. Eric Ebron is hurt, and while Brandon Pettigrew is getting healthier, he a blocking tight end. Tim Wright showed that he has receiving talent when he caught a ball down the seam last week against Seattle between three defenders. Hopefully Detroit realized this.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Charles Clay, $4,100 @TEN, Maxx Williams, $3,300 vs. CLE, Owen Daniels, $2,700 @OAK.
Week 5 Defense Sleepers
Philadelphia Eagles, D/ST: $3,000 - vs. NO
This is hoping that a lot of people opt to duck down and save $100 by taking the Giants D/ST (which is a solid option, but that's not what we're here for). The Eagles have the fourth overall defensive unit according to PFF, and while we highlighted some cheap tournament plays for the Saints, this points to longshots that need to hit and why they themselves should be low owned. The Eagles will be at home in a game that should see them leading early, as well as boasting the second best special teams unit according to PFF, which only helps with those potential return touchdowns.
Jacksonville Jaguars, D/ST: $2,700 – @TB
Going against Jameis Winston seems to be a solid lottery ticket to take. The Jaguars are pretty beat up themselves, and we saw last week that they didn't exactly dominate Matt Hasselbeck, but they didn't fall flat on their faces either. The hope here is that while Hasselbeck was the cagey veteran who opts for the lower risk throws while managing the game, Winston is still young and clearly likes to take his shots. It only helps Jacksonville's case that the Tampa Bay offensive line has the stopping power of a wet store brand paper towel.
