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Kevin looks at the top 5 fantasy baseball prospect busts for the 2025 season so far. These MLB rookies have not performed well - Roki Sasaki, Kristian Campbell, Cam Smith, Dylan Crews, more.
I think we, as a fantasy baseball community, have been spoiled by sensational rookie seasons by top prospects like Corbin Carroll and Paul Skenes in recent years. These prospects, who are top players essentially right away, sometimes make us forget that the transition to MLB is hard and that most rookies, even top prospects, are bad.
This doesn't stop fantasy players from dreaming of rookies who they hope can be first—or second-round caliber producers right away. Most of the top prospects have not met their expectations this season. The transition to the majors has been challenging for this class of rookies, except for Jacob Wilson.
Let's examine a few top prospects struggling in the majors this season and see what we can expect from them for the rest of the season and long term.
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Roki Sasaki, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
This pains me to write as I will stan any star Asian athlete (my writer page profile picture is me dragging my wife to a game wearing Ohtani jerseys). However, I was out on Roki Sasaki going into this season, at least from a redraft standpoint.
Sasaki has been one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory. He seemed to put up double-digit strikeouts every time he was on the mound and even threw a perfect game in Japan at only 20 years old. He was MLB Pipeline's top prospect immediately upon signing, and scouts were touting his splitter as one of the best pitches in the entire sport.
However, his profile seemed flawed to me. First, he regularly battled injuries in Japan and never threw more than 130 innings in a season. He also was not that good in his final season before coming to the States.
Today is the 2 year anniversary of Roki Sasaki’s Perfect Game
- First NPB Perfect Game in 28 years
- Tied Single Game NPB Record for Ks (19)
- Set NPB Record for Consecutive Ks (13)
- Averaged 99.5 mph fastball
- 44.8 CSW%— Yakyu Cosmopolitan (@yakyucosmo) April 10, 2024
On the surface, a 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 21.6 percent K-BB rate seem very strong. However, these aren't dominant by Japanese league standards and were either his career worst rates or worst since his 19-year-old season in 2021. Comparing him to his current teammate, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who had an ERA below 1.7 and a WHIP below .93 in his final three seasons in Japan while putting up solid workloads each season.
While I thought Sasaki might struggle this season, I couldn't have predicted he'd be as bad as he's been. His ERA is 4.72 with ERA estimators all in the high 5's and some over six. His command and strikeout skills have both been extremely poor as he's almost walking as many batters as he's striking out, with a 1.3 percent K-BB rate.
Sasaki is currently on the IL (shoulder), so if you can stash him there, that's fine. However, if your IL slots are filling up or you're in a league with no IL slots, I'd be fine dropping him in redraft.
I'm still a believer in the Dodgers player development helping him figure things out in the long term and would be willing to buy low in dynasty, especially if you're not contending this season, but I don't have any aspirations for him making a big impact this season.
Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals
I'm going to sound like a hater after saying I didn't like Sasaki, and now I'm saying I did not really like Dylan Crews as a prospect. Crews was one of the most decorated college hitters in recent memory, his career culminating in a College World Series victory and Golden Spikes award at LSU. However, nothing he did in the minor leagues impressed me enough to justify his elite prospect status.
Crews often gets compared to Wyatt Langford, who was drafted fourth overall in his draft class. Langford had an outrageous professional debut in 2023 in which he had a 199 WRC+ while walking more than he struck out across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A, leading him to break camp the following spring in Texas.
In his professional debut after getting drafted, Crews had a 136 WRC+, but he only had a 76 WRC+ in Double-A. He followed that up in his first full professional season with a solid but unspectacular 117 WRC+ across Double-A and Triple-A before getting the call to the majors. For those who read my prospects to stash series, almost all of the top prospects on the precipice of the majors I include have better advanced metrics than that.
In his first stint in the majors in 2024, Crews had an 80 WRC+ across 132 PA with three HRs and 12 SBs. He did display a solid approach at the plate, striking out less than 20 percent of the time. He also had a .253 BABIP and 42 42-point negative gap between his wOBA (.283) and xwOBA (.325), creating some hope he would see some positive regression going into this season.
That positive regression has not come for Crews this season. He has a 75 WRC+ and his BA has dropped below .200. He is showing a pretty exciting power-speed blend as he has hit seven HRs and has 11 SBs across 173 PAs, but his K-rate has ballooned to 27.7 percent while his BB-rate has dropped to 6.4 percent.
Crews has been even unluckier this year with a .233 BABIP and a 66-point negative gap between his wOBA (.277) and xwOBA (.343). However, I do have some questions about how good he can be, even with some good luck. There is not a ton to be excited about in his Savant page, except for a solid barrel rate.
Like Sasaki, Crews is currently on the IL (oblique), so he's fine to stash, but I'd be ok dropping him in shallow-medium depth leagues. In deeper leagues, I'd probably still look to hold as he should provide speed with upside in other categories upon his return. I think the Nationals will want to give their former number two overall pick every chance to right the ship, as they won't be contending this season.
In dynasty, you can buy low on him, but I'd temper expectations on his upside. If you're a big college baseball fan holding out hope that he'll become the player we saw at LSU, I wouldn't bet on that ever coming to fruition.
Kristian Campbell, 2B/SS/OF, Boston Red Sox
No hitter made more noise in the minor leagues last season than Kristian Campbell. The 2023 fourth-round pick rose like a phoenix up prospect rankings as he had a 178 WRC+ across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A.
He showed a nice power-speed combination, hitting 20 HRs with 24 SBs while displaying impressive plate skills, walking 14.3 percent of the time and only striking out 19.9 percent of the time. Despite not having the best spring training, he was still the only member of the Big Three Red Sox prospects to open the season in Boston due to his spectacular 2024 minor league season.
In March and April, it looked like a star was being born as he had a 153 WRC+ with four HR and a .301 BA. However, Campbell went crashing into that rookie wall in a big way when May hit. He had an astonishingly bad -5 WRC+ while striking out over 30 percent of the time. His June has not been great either, as he has a 43 WRC+ so far.
On the season, he has an 85 WRC+ while striking out 28.1 percent of the time.
While the Red Sox have not necessarily indicated that they would send Campbell down to Triple-A for a reset, it doesn't seem like a bad idea. They have already relegated him to ninth in the batting order on days he's in the lineup, and he is not a strong defender at any of the positions they've tried him at.
With the risk of him being sent to the minors and the Red Sox having a bit of position player log jam (that will only get worse when Roman Anthony is called up), I would be hesitant to buy Campbell in redraft. I think the talent is still there long term, as no one hits like he hit in the minors by accident. We will see if the Red Sox take a page from the Orioles' playbook with Jackson Holliday for Campbell.
Cam Smith, 3B/OF, Houston Astros
Next season, when I get too excited about players in spring training, I will try to remind myself how excited I was about Cam Smith. I picked him to win AL ROY and thought he would be a star right away, especially getting the right-handed Astros hitter bonus of hitting homers into the Crawford Boxes.
Smith had a great start to his pro career with a 181 WRC+ across Low-A, High-A, and Double-A after getting drafted in the first round in 2024. This offseason, he was the co-headliner with Isaac Paredes of the Kyle Tucker trade package sent to Houston from Chicago.
While it seemed likely that he would get the call to the majors at some point this season, he went out and bashed in the door to the majors in spring training by hitting four HRs and having a 190 WRC+. As his bat was impressing, they gave him more reps in right field as his natural third base spot was taken by Paredes, and he looked good enough out there to break camp with the big league club.
Smith has had an up-and-down start to his rookie season. He hit .213 with a 97 WRC+ in March and April. He upped the batting average quite a bit in May as he hit .307 with a 131 WRC+ in the month, but it came with zero HRs (he did hit seven doubles, though). The total line is a solid but unspectacular 101 WRC+.
The problem for Smith is that he's striking out at a 29.5 percent clip, and his quality of contact metrics is not good enough to strike out this often.
From a real-life standpoint, Cam Smith is not having a terrible rookie year. The fact that he had no more than a cup of coffee and a donut in the minor leagues and is playing a brand new position in the majors, and playing it at a high level, is impressive. He has 4 OAA (94th percentile) and .8 fWAR.
Unfortunately, these real-life factors don't matter much for fantasy. He's not a big base stealer, so the bat will need to carry his profile. He's worth holding in medium-deep leagues but will probably not provide the upside we hoped for during draft season.
Long term, I think he will still be an excellent hitter. When he gets a little stronger, that incredible bat speed will help him generate more power. We can also hope he'll get in the "pulled fly ball" lab with Jose Altuve and Paredes this offseason to take full advantage of playing half of his home games in Houston.
Matt Shaw, 2B/SS/3B, Chicago Cubs
Matt Shaw is the only player featured in this article who has been sent back to the minors at some point. He's also the one I'm most excited about for the rest of the season.
Shaw had a very impressive season and a half in the minors to start his professional career. After being drafted in the first round in 2023, he had a 170 WRC+ between High-A and Double-A. He followed this up in 2024 with a 144 WRC+ across Double-A and Triple-A to go along with 21 HRs and 31 SBs.
Going into this season, the Cubs essentially penciled Shaw into their lineup as their everyday third baseman. However, he got off to an awful start with a .172 BA and 63 WRC+ through his first 18 games. This caused the Cubs to send him down to Triple-A.
This was just what Shaw needed as he was struggling for confidence in the majors. If he were on a rebuilding team, they likely would've allowed him to figure things out in the majors, but it made sense for the Cubs to get him back in the minors to heat up especially since they had a little bit of a weird spring given they played in the opening series in Japan.
Shaw quickly sorted things out in Triple-A as he had a 149 WRC+ with six HRs across 110 PA, and he walked (15.5 percent) much more than he struck out (10.0 percent). He's carried this over back in Chicago and has almost fully turned around his stat line, getting to a 106 WRC+ on the season.
Matt Shaw skies his second homer of the season🚀
The Cubs’ No. 2 prospect has been on a tear ever since rejoining the big league club.
He entered the game batting .314 in his last 15 games👀
(🎥@Cubs)
pic.twitter.com/LrOS5e1DwM— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) June 7, 2025
Given how he's played since returning to the majors, it might not even be fair to call Shaw a bust. However, spending almost as much time in Triple-A as the majors and only two HRs on the ledger is not what those who drafted him were hoping for at this stage in the season.
The buy-low window on him might be closed in most leagues. I think he should provide solid five-category potential, especially in a strong Cubs lineup for this season and beyond.
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