Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Hitters Delivering Elite Results - Part 11

Kevin analyzes four hitter fantasy baseball sleepers who are surging for Week 18. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.

It's the 11th edition of Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs. Some didn't think we'd make it this far, mainly because it's one number higher than I can normally count to, but we've made it! Don't think miracles can't happen.

Heading into Week 18, there's a bit of digging we need to do to help you find those diamonds in the rough that can help you win your fantasy championship. Buying into current hype can be easy, but understanding luck can set you apart from the rest of your league.

We'll break down four hitters for you this week. With the trade deadline coming this week, it marks an important part of the season in both real life and fantasy baseball. It's a make-or-break time not just for teams vying for playoff spots but also for fantasy managers aiming for playoff spots as well. Today, we'll break down Steven Kwan, Shea Langeliers, Michael Harris II, and Ezequiel Tovar. Now, let's get into it.

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All statistics in this article reflect games played through Sunday, July 27.

Steven Kwan, OF, Cleveland Guardians

2025 Stats: .761 OPS, 112 OPS+, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 50 R, 11 SB

Jose Ramirez gets most of the shine in Cleveland's lineup, but Kwan should not be overlooked. He has been one of Cleveland's most important pieces over the past few seasons, thanks to his strong bat-to-ball skills. He hasn't been known for power, but ever since Progressive Field made some renovations to their outfield seats, he's showcased a bit more longball skills.

A decent July has benefited greatly from a really strong seven games after the break, where he's posted a 1.019 OPS. His name has popped up in trade rumors this week. Other teams are showing interest, but should you, as a fantasy manager? Let's find out how real he is.

Steven Kwan on a HR-hitting terror: drops the barrel, golfs it out of the park with his pitching wedge, pun intended #GuardsBall #Guardians #MLB
pic.twitter.com/XeEFv5uU7V

— Jay7 (@LJayy7) July 27, 2025

The first key characteristic to know about Kwan is that the dude just does not strike out much. His strikeout rate this season sits at 8.4%, putting him in the 99th percentile. This aligns with his career average of 9.6%. More balls in play can usually mean better results, and Kwan has made his living off contact hitting.

His walk percentage hasn't changed significantly either. He's at 8.9% on the season, a slight bit below his 9.8% rate in 2024. That's not all that concerning to me, so we can move on knowing that his plate approach is about the same as it has been throughout his four-year career.

Now to his batted-ball profile. As was the case with his plate approach, we see a bit of consistency in his yearly numbers. His ground-ball rate sits at 39.5% this season, up from his 36.3% mark last season but below his 41.3% career mark. The good news with this number is that in his first two seasons, he sat above 40%, indicating a continuous improvement in keeping the ball off the ground.

That three percent swing in his ground-ball rate directly affects his fly-ball rate, which has dropped to 36.6% from last season's 39.4% mark. That's less important for Kwan, though, as his line-drive rate has stayed similar to his mark last season. It's currently at 23.9% which is about the same as his 24.2% mark last year.

The line drive mark is important for Kwan, specifically because he generally doesn't hit the ball all that hard. His 21.4% hard-hit rate ranks in the second percentile and is in line with his career norms. Because he doesn't hit it hard, he needs those line drives in his repertoire. Whether he hits them hard or soft, they'll generally lead to more hits.

Now for the expected stats. Kwan currently has a .333 wOBA to go along with a .326 xwOBA. Not a drastic difference, but enough to suggest he may be getting a bit lucky.

One stat that sticks out to me is his xwOBACON (Expected wOBA Based On Contact). Generally, you see this number higher than both wOBA and xwOBA. But, because Kwan's contact his softer, he is actually less than both and is currently at a .317 mark. There's definitely an old-school aspect to his game where he's just finding holes and hitting it where they're not.

Now for the pitch mix he faces. Last season, the 27-year-old feasted on four-seam fastballs, hitting them for a .431 wOBA. That hasn't been the same this year, as he's only hitting them for a .326 wOBA. This year, he's expecting positive regression with a .342 wOBA. The drop this year could have been predicted by last year's .362 xwOBA against four-seamers.

The pitch he sees second-most is sinkers. He's currently hitting them for a real strong .385 wOBA. However, that's paired with a .322 xwOBA. That's a significant drop in negative regression. Some of that will be negated because he only sees sinkers 16.5% of the time, but that's a larger gap than we'd like to see.

One pitch he's getting true results on, and pitchers will continue to throw him, is sliders. He's hitting them for a measly .211 wOBA to go along with a .258 xwOBA. Even with positive regression, that's still a major weakness in his game. Pitchers should, and likely will, continue to throw him sliders if they've got a good one.

2 home runs for Steven Kwan 💪

It's all tied up in Cleveland! pic.twitter.com/X9HlgUjjO2

— MLB (@MLB) July 24, 2025

If Kwan gets lucky, then he'll see more cutters, curves, and sweepers in the future. He's currently hitting all three for a wOBA of .400 or better, and all have a .350 xwOBA or better. Those are strong numbers to have, but he doesn't see any of these pitches more than 7.6% of the time. It's unlikely he sees them often, but when he does, he'll get good results.

Verdict: Kwan's bat-to-ball skills are a defining characteristic of his game, but he doesn't hit the ball hard enough to truly make pitchers fear him enough. The good news is that he puts tons of balls in play and has a respectable walk rate, so the chances he gets a hit that leads to him scoring remain high.

I don't believe that negative regression will do much damage to him at all and that the season-long results are probably what we should expect going forward. He'll get you hits, but don't expect a ton of power like he's showcased since the break. Keep rolling with him if he's on your roster.

Shea Langeliers, C, Athletics

2025 Stats: .792 OPS, 116 OPS+, 17 HR, 42 RBI, 37 R, 4 SB

Whatever Langeliers did during the All-Star break, he needs to keep doing it. He's been one of the best hitters in the league at this time, hitting for a 1.314 OPS in 10 games with five homers and 11 RBI. He's turned the burners on and is helping the A's become an offense you're not able to overlook.

Outside of a lackluster May, the A's catcher has been relatively solid at the plate. But with July's outburst in full force, does he have more in the tank? Or do the expected stats say something different? Let's find out.

Shea Langeliers is quietly rolling right now.

His 17th HR of the year and OPS now up to .793 pic.twitter.com/cgBYRniu0B

— Kyle Bautista (@KyleBautista12) July 27, 2025

For starters, let's check out his plate approach. We can immediately see a significant difference in his strikeout rate, as it has dropped from 27.2% last year to 19.7% this year. That's a drastic improvement. As a team, the A's are striking out 1.6% less this year at home. So the improvement is more than just a change in scenery.

His walk rate is currently identical to last year, sitting at 7.7%. Between that and his strikeout rate, we can determine that Langeliers is simply making more contact with more balls in play. And that remains true, as his contact rate has increased to 78.0% from last year's 73.4%. More balls in play have been beneficial for the 27-year-old.

His batted-ball profile shows a slightly concerning trend as we're seeing an increase in grounders. His ground-ball rate has increased from 37.3% last year to 40.9% this year. That's not a concerning high number, but we don't want to see it increase. As expected, his fly-ball rate has dropped from 44.0% to 40.4%.

Line drives remain identical to last season at 18.7%. His HR/FB rate is similar as well, sitting at 18.7% on the season compared to last year's 19.2%. FanGraphs is projecting about eight or nine more homers this season, depending on the model, which would put him at 25 or 26 for the season. He'll have to work to surpass last year's mark of 29.

The expected statistics indicate that Langeliers may be expecting negative regression. His current .337 wOBA is paired with a .321 xwOBA. When looking at his BABIP, though, you'd expect positive regression. His BABIP currently sits at .260, which typically indicates that he's getting very unlucky.

However, Langeliers has always had a low BABIP. His career mark sits at .256, and his .260 mark is the best number he's posted since becoming the A's normal catcher. So, perhaps the number is more accurate than it probably should be.

Pitchers have mainly attacked Langeliers with four-seamers and sliders. Both are expecting negative regression, but not drastic amounts. Four-seamers are being hit for a .334 wOBA to go along with a .318 xwOBA. Sliders are being hit for a .341 wOBA to go with a .322 xwOBA.

Shea Langeliers

It’s a heavy power profile with Langeliers on pace for his 3rd straight 20+ homer season, and he’s cut down K’s by 8%. Slugging hasn’t changed as his .461 is a career high. He also has a 143 wRC+ vs LHP, which would be huge in helping the Padres’ woes vs LHP. pic.twitter.com/Zu3uEMwt2F

— Danny (@dannybarrand_) July 21, 2025

Neither of those xwOBA numbers is great, but they're not terrible. With four-seamers being thrown to him 36.6% of the time, the negative regression there will be more important than what he's seeing from sliders.

One pitch that's been a real strength for Langeliers, and will continue to be, is his success against sinkers. He's crushing them for a .428 wOBA to go along with a .433 xwOBA. He also has a 62.2% hard-hit rate against sinkers, his highest against pitches he sees more than 10% of the time. He'll make pitchers pay when they throw him one.

What he'll need to improve on is sweepers. This has clearly been a significant weakness for him, as he's only hitting them for a .179 wOBA, along with a .144 xwOBA. It's the pitch he sees fourth most, making it a pitch that pitchers are going to continue targeting against the 27-year-old.

Verdict: Langeliers' breakout in July likely isn't representative of who he is as a hitter, especially given his .321 xwOBA (36th percentile). However, he's got enough positive signs to make me believe in his season-long 116 OPS+.

As with Kwan, I don't expect negative or positive regression to significantly affect Langeliers, and he will continue to be who he is. Ride the hot streak for now, but he'll come back down to reality soon enough. You don't want to dump him after that, but he'll still be a fine catcher to have on your roster.

Michael Harris II, OF, Atlanta Braves

2025 Stats: .617 OPS, 71 OPS+, 9 HR, 49 RBI, 28 R, 12 SB

Maybe nothing better encapsulates the Braves' season than looking at Harris's stat line. After a down year, we were expecting Harris to bounce back. However, he has been underwhelming in nearly all aspects.

Some of that may be turning around, though, as he's been much better in July. He's turned in an .858 OPS during the month, which has only been better since the break. He's hit for a 1.297 OPS since the All-Star break with a .412 AVG. Is this a sign of things to come, or is it a fake-out? Let's dive in.

ATL - Michael Harris II Solo HR (8)

📏 Distance: 388 ft
💨 EV: 104.1 mph
📐 LA: 36°
⚾️ 82.7 mph slider (TEX - LHP Jacob Latz)
🏟️ Would be out in 30/30 MLB parks

ATL (1) @ TEX (4)
🔺 7th#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/R6za8TEsB4

— MLB Home Runs🚀 (@MLBHRs_) July 26, 2025

Harris' plate approach this season mirrors pretty much who he's been his entire career. His strikeout rate sits at 20.3%, just a touch above last year's 20.0% and is right in line with his 20.7% career mark. His walk rate has dropped to 3.0% from last season's 4.9% mark, certainly a more concerning trend.

For Harris, he's never been a guy who draws many walks. That 4.9% mark was already low, but this year's 3.0% ranks in just the 2nd percentile. A great way for slumping hitters to break out is to draw walks, but for the most part, Harris hasn't done that.

One trend that's emerged over the past two seasons, influencing the low walk rate, is that the 24-year-old is swinging more. His swing rate is up to 56.5% this season. In his first two seasons, he was right at 52%. This is important to note because in 2022 and 2023, his OPS+ was 131 and 116.

The swing rate increase is also coinciding with a higher rate of contact, specifically on pitches in the zone. That would generally be a great sign, but his hard-hit rate is dropping. His 41.6% hard-hit rate ranks in the 42nd percentile. Not great, but not bad. The concerning part is that last season it was at 47%. That's a significant drop, affecting his lesser stats.

But that doesn't tell us everything, so let's look at his batted-ball profile. He's hitting groundballs at a 50.2% rate this season, slightly up from last season's 49.4%. A more telling comparison is examining his 2023 ground-ball rate, which was 47.2%. We're now looking at two straight seasons of an increasing ground-ball rate.

Surprisingly, though, his fly-ball rate is up. It sits at 32.3% on the season, an increase from last year's 29.9% and above 2023's rate of 30.6%. This is the highest mark Harris has posted in his career. That's a step in the right direction, but we still need more.

One part that's concerning in his batted-ball profile is a drop in line-drive rate. It's currently at 17.5% and was at 20.7% last season. With Harris struggling, for the most part, we want to see that line-drive rate higher, given that they're more likely to result in hits. It's his second straight season with a decrease, a concerning trend.

We can also see from his barrel rate that he may not have seen the ball as well this season. It sits at 7.8% this season, which is lower than his career average of around 10%. Part of the reason he's struggling can simply be that he hasn't seen the ball well enough to make good contact.

As we examine the expected statistics, we can see, however, that Harris may have been getting unlucky. His .265 wOBA is paired with a .311 xwOBA. That's a relatively massive gap. And even though the .311 xwOBA isn't great (29th percentile), it's still a good jump that he's in the middle of right now.

Another aspect to consider is his BABIP, which currently sits at .264, well below the .300 mark we generally aim for. He's also been around the .300 mark in his career, so it points towards some bad luck.

His last 100 PAs show that he's now starting to reach a league-average level when it comes to xwOBA. The boost in July is certainly helping him get there. As long as he keeps it going, this trend will continue to project upwards.

As we examine the pitch mix he faces, we can see that Harris is expecting positive regression on the top four pitches he faces. That's great news for fantasy managers and Braves fans alike. The bulk of that will come against four-seam fastballs and sinkers.

Harris sees four-seamers 28.9% of the time and is hitting them for a .267 wOBA to go along with a .315 xwOBA. He sees sinkers 20.6% of the time and is hitting them for a 210 wOBA to go along with a .317 xwOBA. At nearly 50% of the total pitches he sees, those two pitches can help get him back to a league-average wOBA.

Michael Harris II is a single away from the cycle 👀 pic.twitter.com/CITTtKzF2y

— MLB (@MLB) July 27, 2025

Sliders (.196 wOBA) and changeups (.169 wOBA) are also expected to show positive regression. Sliders have a .307 xwOBA while changeups have a .247 xwOBA. Changeups won't be a make-or-break pitch for the 24-year-old, but any positive regression will help.

One pitch he's been very good with already, and will continue to be good with, is curveballs. He's hitting them for a .470 wOBA to go with a .408 xwOBA. That's an excellent floor for him to have. Though he only sees them 8.3% of the time, he'll make pitchers pay even more if they continue to throw him curves.

Verdict: July has been a very positive sign for Harris, as he has worked to get back on the right track. July as a whole has been much more like the hitter we've come to expect Harris to be. The second half start may be a bit too hot to maintain, but July's going to be much more realistic.

He's seeing his batted-ball profile look much better in July and is very reminiscent of his 2023 season. If that keeps up, then he'll be a very solid buy for the rest of the season. Buy into Harris now and ride that positive regression wave. But when he starts to normalize expect production that's right around or slightly below league average.

Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies

2025 Stats: .756 OPS, 101 OPS+, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 20 R, 2 SB

Tovar's season has been cut a bit short thanks to an oblique injury, holding back some of the counting stats that you'd expect to be higher. But his July has been more than solid with a .976 OPS. That's very reminiscent of his May when he posted a .953 OPS. So is he back? Or is this a fake-out? Let's find out.

Ezequiel Tovar

First 33 games: 3 HR

Last 5 games: 3 HRpic.twitter.com/NVlS4GbK0z

— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) July 26, 2025

With his plate approach, Tovar has made a significant improvement in his strikeout rate, posting a 21.9% rate this season. That's well below last year's 28.8% mark. Tovar's always been a bit of a free swinger, so this aspect of his game improving is a big surprise.

His walk rate has also increased, coming in at 5.3% this year, compared to 3.3% last year. Tovar hasn't posted a walk rate above 5% since his rookie season. Sure, it's only in the 14th percentile, but any improvement in walks is good.

Moving on to the batted-ball profile. Tovar's is interesting in that it's almost split into thirds across the board. The ground-ball rate is slightly higher than last year's, coming in at 34.5% compared to 32.8% last year. Both are improvements over his first two seasons.

His fly-ball rate is down this season, sitting at 32.8% compared to last year's 45.9%. We obviously don't want to see decreases in flyballs, but he's been able to make up for that by posting a ridiculous 32.8% line-drive rate. As we mentioned earlier, line drives usually mean more hits, and Tovar is capitalizing on that aspect of his batted-ball profile.

Tovar is also seeing the highest HR/FB rate of his career, coming in at 15.4%. Due to missing most of the season already, he won't pass his 26 HR mark he posted last year, but he should likely get close to 14 or 15 by season's end.

Now onto the expected stats. Some of this may be affected by the smaller sample size, but Tovar could be expecting a rather large jump in positive regression. He comes in with a .327 wOBA, but that's paired with a .375 xwOBA. A near 50-point jump in wOBA should be something everyone signs up for on the dot.

Ezequiel Tovar's oppo blast makes it 6-0 @Rockies 💪 pic.twitter.com/lq635ROr2K

— MLB (@MLB) July 23, 2025

BABIP doesn't indicate that the jump is that large, as Tovar's posting a .310 BABIP on the season. Generally, he's hit closer to .330, but if we assume a .300 mark is league average, then that number won't increase tremendously.

An aspect of the 23-year-old's profile that could counter this, though, is his high hard-hit rate. He has increased it to 45.9% this season, compared to last year's number of 39.8%. The harder you hit the ball, the more likely you are to get hits. And Tovar's doing that.

Now for the pitch mix. The top two pitches Tovar sees the most are ones he hasn't done very well against, but he's expecting positive regression on them. He sees four-seamers the most at 31.7%. He's hitting them for a .268 wOBA to go with a .332 wOBA. A solid amount of positive regression will come against this pitch.

The pitch he sees the second most is the sinker. He sees them 15.3% of the time and is hitting them for a .270 wOBA to go along with a .392 xwOBA. This may be the most impactful pitch that affects his profile, given that more than a 100-point jump is expected.

He should also expect similar positive regression against sweepers. He's hitting them for just a .277 wOBA, but that's paired with a .354 xwOBA. Yet another pitch that Tovar's expecting a rather large jump for.

One pitch he's done well against that he'll continue to do well against is sliders. He's hitting them for a .336 wOBA to go with a .365 xwOBA. Not as strong a ceiling as some of the other pitchers, but he's been relatively consistent against them.

The only problematic pitch currently sticking out is the changeup. He's currently crushing them for a .393 wOBA, but that's paired with a .248 xwOBA. Given his free-swinging habits, he may find himself out in front of these more often in the future.

Verdict: Baseball fans are always skeptical of the Rockies' players when it comes to their offensive production. But even the strongest doubters would be very intrigued at the rather large expected jump that xwOBA is predicting.

With him expecting positive regression in each of the top five pitches he faces, Tovar is an absolute buy. His OPS+ should jump closer to 120 or 125 when all is said and done, and fantasy managers will be happy he's on their roster. At 47% rostered in Yahoo! leagues, there's a decent chance he's on your waiver wire to pick up for free. Do it...do it now!

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