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RotoBaller staff's fantasy football sleepers, avoids, and start 'em sit 'em picks for Week 16 of 2025. Expert lineup advice from Andy Smith, Frank Ammirante, and Thunder Dan Palyo.
The semifinal round of the fantasy football playoffs has arrived, and start-sit calls have never been more consequential and nerve-wracking. Starting a player who flames out could cause you to fall short of a fantasy football championship, but starting an under-the-radar sleeper could propel your team to a win. As always, we're here to help.
It's time for the next edition of our RotoBaller staff start-or-sit calls. Three of the industry's best analysts are here to break down potential sleepers and busts ahead of the full slate of Week 16 NFL action.
These fantasy football sleepers, avoids, and busts are from top RotoBaller contributors Andy Smith, Frank Ammirante, and "Thunder Dan" Palyo.
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Week 16 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Picks
Jalen Coker, Panthers vs. Buccaneers (Andy Smith)
The undrafted sophomore has seen his role steadily increase since he returned from injury and is emerging as a weekly FLEX play. Since Week 10, Coker has seen at least four targets per game, but his production has finally begun to take the next step. Over his last two, Coker has seen 5.0 targets per game and has scored at least 16.0 PPR points per game. He found the back of the end zone in each contest and saw a season-high six targets back in Week 13.
Even though Xavier Legette is still being deployed as Carolina's No. 2 option, the sophomore wideout has seen just five total targets over his last two games and is quickly falling out of favor in this offense. Coker is a viable WR3/high-end FLEX facing a susceptible Tampa Bay secondary that has allowed the 16th-most PPR points per game to opposing WRs. Coker is the true No. 2 option in this offense and could be in store for a breakout game against the Buccaneers.
Jalen Coker using hand-jitsu at the line. pic.twitter.com/ddMmfOKeGY
— Michael Bell (@avl_mike) December 2, 2025
Michael Carter, Cardinals vs. Falcons (Frank Ammirante)
Michael Carter is in line for a heavy role with Bam Knight out for the season. When Knight left early last week, Carter rushed 14 times for 56 yards, adding four catches for 38 yards. Emari Demarcado still lingers, but it's clear that the Cardinals prefer Carter as their lead back. Up next is an exploitable matchup against the Falcons, who rank 19th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs.
Jayden Reed, Packers at Bears (Thunder Dan)
The Packers are atop the list of my favorite passing game matchups this weekend as they get another meeting with Chicago. We just saw this game two weeks ago, and we saw Green Bay score four touchdowns and throw the ball quite effectively against this Bears defense.
Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are both questionable for tomorrow's game, and if even one of those two were to miss, we could see a bump in targets for Reed. Even if the Packers have all their receivers healthy, Reed has earned 10 targets the last two weeks and a 17% target share. He's a matchup problem for the Bears, who run a lot of man coverage, and a threat to rack up yards after the catch.
Rico Dowdle, Panthers vs. Buccaneers (Andy Smith)
While it appeared Rico Dowdle was losing his footing in the Carolina backfield following a massive resurgence from Chuba Hubbard back in Week 13, Dowdle reclaimed this role in a demanding fashion on Sunday. During their 20-17 loss to the Saints, Dowdle logged 60% of the snaps and took 16 carries for 49 yards and a score. Hubbard was demoted back to his clear No. 2 role after logging only eight attempts, despite seeing 40% of the total snaps.
Since Week 9, Dowdle has out-snapped Hubbard in all but one game and has logged more than 65% of the snaps in all but one contest. During this stretch, he has averaged 15.4 PPR points per game. Start him as a solid RB2 facing a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the eighth-most PPR points to opposing RBs.
Aaron Jones Sr., Vikings at Giants (Frank Ammirante)
Aaron Jones is coming off a week where he saw 15 touches in a win against the Cowboys. Next up is a terrific spot vs the Giants, who rank 31st in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. With J.J. McCarthy starting to look more comfortable under center, the Vikings offense is easier to trust. Don't be surprised if Jones has one of his biggest games of the season in this spot.
Kenneth Gainwell, Steelers at Lions (Thunder Dan)
I don't like many Steelers most weeks, as I truly believe this is one of the flukiest offenses in football. However, the one player I would have total confidence in right now is Kenneth Gainwell, who continues to post solid numbers every week despite being in a committee with Jaylen Warren in the backfield.
The "pickings" have been slim for Pickens the last two weeks, as he's totaled just eight catches while failing to eclipse the 40-yard mark in either game or find the end zone. CeeDee Lamb has re-established himself as the WR1 in this offense, and the entire Dallas passing attack will have a huge challenge this week against the Chargers' secondary, which is playing at a very high level and shutting down opponents.
It takes some guts to bench a player of Pickens' talent, but you have to be willing to make some bold decisions if you're going to advance to those fantasy football finals!
Gainwell benefits from the fact that Aaron Rodgers loves to dump the ball off on short throws, and the offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, also loves to scheme his running backs (and tight ends) the football in this passing game. Gainwell has been outproducing Warren more often than not over the last month and could see a positive game script for his role as the pass-catching back if the Steelers are playing from behind (which I think they will be).
Week 16 Fantasy Football Busts and Sits
Tony Pollard, Titans vs. Chiefs (Andy Smith)
Tony Pollard has been one of the most valuable running backs in fantasy over the last two weeks. In Week 14, he had a career day against a tough Cleveland defense, totaling 161 yards and two scores. Last Sunday, he stayed hot, totaling 18.2 PPR points on 104 yards and a score against the 49ers. However, managers expecting a third-straight performance should pump the brakes.
On Sunday, the Titans will play host to the Chiefs, who have been among the elite units in defending the run. Even though they are out of the playoff picture and have nothing to play for, their defensive line is one of the best in the sport. Throughout 15 weeks, they have allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points to the position. Before this recent surge, Pollard averaged just 3.3 YPC with 7.0 PPR points per game (from Weeks 11 through 13). Expect major regression from the 28-year-old in one of the toughest matchups for a running back on the slate.
Jaylen Warren, Steelers at Lions (Frank Ammirante)
Jaylen Warren is stuck in a committee with Kenneth Gainwell. It's also a brutal matchup for him in Week 16, as the Steelers are heavy road underdogs against a Lions team that is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. It wouldn't shock me to see this one turn into a blowout, making it difficult for Warren to do enough for you in this matchup.
Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins vs. Bengals (Thunder Dan)
Waddle's production cratered last week as he finished with just 26 yards on two catches against the Steelers. This week, he will be catching passes from Quinn Ewers, who might not be much of an upgrade from Tua. The Bengals' secondary has been their strength lately, so I expect the Dolphins to run the football and feature De'Von Achane this week with a pretty conservative approach on offense with Ewers, which really limits Waddle's upside.
Ashton Jeanty, Raiders at Texans (Andy Smith)
Ashton Jeanty has been one of the most inefficient runners in the game, but has seen his fantasy production slashed by his work as a pass catcher. Over his last five games, the rookie is averaging a low 2.7 YPC and just 30.6 rushing yards per game. However, during this stretch, Jeanty has seen a hefty 6.8 targets per game and brought in 5.2 per game with 26.0 receiving yards, which has significantly boosted his PPR output.
This weekend, the Raiders will face one of the best defensive units in football, the Houston Texans. Managers in half-PPR or standard leagues should not consider starting Jeanty against a defense unit that is allowing the seventh-fewest PPR points to the position. Managers in PPR formats should view him as a high-risk desperation FLEX with a minimal ceiling.
Omarion Hampton, Chargers at Cowboys (Frank Ammirante)
Omarion Hampton is splitting time with Kimani Vidal in the Chargers' backfield. That's bad news against the Cowboys, who have been much improved in run defense since trading for Quinnen Williams. In the last four weeks, the Cowboys have allowed only 3.93 yards per carry, which ranks 9th in the NFL. Given these circumstances, it wouldn't surprise me to see a lackluster performance from Hampton here.
George Pickens, Cowboys vs. Chargers (Thunder Dan)
The "pickings" have been slim for Pickens the last two weeks, as he's totaled just eight catches while failing to eclipse the 40-yard mark in either game or find the end zone. CeeDee Lamb has re-established himself as the WR1 in this offense, and the entire Dallas passing attack will have a huge challenge this week against the Chargers' secondary, which is playing at a very high level and shutting down opponents.
It takes some guts to bench a player of Pickens' talent, but you have to be willing to make some bold decisions if you're going to advance to those fantasy football finals!
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