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Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for March 16th, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Thursday, 16th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/16/23
The trade market has officially come and gone and teams are gearing up for a tough stretch of very meaningful games and playoffs in hopes of a date with Lord Stanley. Tonight we have an 11-game slate with one team playing on a back-to-back, Colorado. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Florida with 4.7, Los Angeles with 4.2 and Nashville with 3.8. I will do my best in guiding you through this eleven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Jonathan Quick- DK $7.5K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
Another large slate and another handful of viable options in net. Tonight Quick plays the Flames who are still one of the top teams in Shots For Per 60 – 34.79 –, but yet they continue to struggle to score. In their last five away games, they have been outscored 13 to 16. Quick has not been in the best form since coming to Vegas, however, this is a game worth targeting from the sheer amount of shots he will see. Furthermore, despite Quick’s mediocre form, he has won 4 of his last 5 games. Quick is by far the most optimal goalie for save volume alone.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Copley (DK $8.4K || FD $8.5K), Swayman (DK $7.9K || FD $8.8K)
Centers
Sam Bennett-DK $5.3K || FD $5.9K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
The wishy-washy Penguins came out of the gate quickly in the 6-4 loss to Montreal on Tuesday, but they could not hold Montreal off. Florida has a similar offense, but they have been able to stabilize themselves much more. This leads us to Sam Bennett who happens to anchor the best line in Sunrise. In Bennett’s last five matches, he has 2 goals, 20 shots and 1 blocked shot. It is very apparent that Bennett is getting to the areas to score, however, his shot is not landing at the moment. This opens up a potential blowup spot for him against one of the worst defenses in the league. Over the season Canadiens are in the bottom ten in the league in both Shots Against Per 60 – 31.79 – and Goals Against Per 60 – 2.88 –, while they are in the bottom five of the league in both Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 32.34 – and High Danger Chances Against Per 60 – 13.82 –.
Anze Kopitar- DK $5.7K || FD $6.9K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Kopitar is a boom-or-bust option that is rather expensive. The center in his last five games, has 4 assists, 8 shots and 3 blocked shots. Neither his peripherals nor his point production is where it needs to be right now, although, he has a prime matchup tonight against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Over the season they are the second-worst team in Shots Against Per 60 – 34.13 –, the third-worst team in Goals Against Per 60 – 3.13 –, the fifth-worst team in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 31.55 – and the eighth-worst team in High-Danger Chances Against Per 60 – 12.82 –. They have also conceded 21 goals in their last 5 away games. Kopitar should see a plethora of chances tonight to make value.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Pettersson (DK $7.9K || FD $9.7K), Beniers (DK $4.6K || FD $5.8K)
Wings
Jordan Eberle- DK $4.4K || FD $5.3K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
As highlighted in Tuesday’s article, the Sharks are in the midst of tanking and they have conceded a slate-high 28 goals over their last five home games – the most recent loss to Columbus 6-5 –. The Sharks remain a mediocre defense at best, but their goaltending is putrid – second-worst in the league with 3.22 Goals Against Per 60 –. Seattle’s offense is nothing to shout from the rooftops either, but they easily have the best spot on the slate and Jordan Eberle remains one of their most consistent players. Despite having just 1 goal and 1 assist over his last five appearances, Eberle has 13 shots and 2 blocked shots in that window. For under $5K on DraftKings tonight, this is the closest you can get to a ‘lock’ at the wing position.
Matthew Tkachuk- DK $8.3K || FD $9.7K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Tkachuk is another player that is due to explode in a prime spot tonight. Montreal’s defense has already been highlighted and to add to it, their expected starter Sam Montembeault has conceded 17 goals in his last five appearances. In Tkachuk’s last five games, he has 2 goals, 6 assists, 26 shots and 4 blocked shots. Not only is he averaging 5 shots per game right now, but he is also averaging a point per game. Against a weak defense, Tkachuk will have plenty of opportunities to score tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kempe (DK $5.5K || FD $6.5K), Evangelista (DK $3.8K || FD $5K)
Defense
Vince Dunn- DK $4.8K || FD $6.1K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
San Jose is getting torn apart as referenced in Tuesday's article, however, Adam Boqvist of the Columbus Blue Jackets did not step up in a prime matchup. Luckily, we have a more reliable and consistent defenseman in Vince Dunn this time around. We will have to pay up for him, however, his production is worth it. In his last five games, he has 1 goal, 7 assists, 8 shots and 3 blocked shots. His peripherals have taken a steep fall but he has made up for it in points. The Sharks have conceded 28 goals in their last five home games. Dunn should be in the thick of the scoring tonight.
Sean Walker- DK $2.8K || FD $3.7K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Despite the Sharks being in full tank mode, they were able to muster 5 goals in their 6-5 loss to the Blue Jackets on Tuesday. Barring a major collapse, the same expectation stands for the Kings tonight. Teammate Sean Durzi is expected to remain out for this game, giving away to Sean Walker once again, who is playing on the third pairing and running the second power-play unit. For under $3K on DraftKings, this is prime value at defense tonight. Through his last five games, he has 1 assist, 7 shots and 8 blocked shots.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Matheson (DK 5.2K || FD $5.7K), Barrie (DK $4.6K || FD $6K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- NJ1
- CAR1
- COL1
- BOS1
- TB1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- FLA: Verhaeghe-Bennett-Tkachuk
Chalk Stack
- SEA: McCann-Beniers-Eberle
Sneaky Stack
- PIT: Zucker-Malkin-Nylander
