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Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another edition of Thunder Dan's Best MLB Bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, August 2nd, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Corbin Burnes o8.5K vs.PIT (+110 FD)
Let’s start with the biggest of the strikeout kings on the slate. Burnes has the third-highest K rate behind Strider and Javier, but the best SwStr% on the board at 16.2%. He gets my poor Buccos today, who continue to trend towards more strikeouts as the season goes along with a massive 29% K rate over their most recent two weeks.
He had 10 strikeouts against them earlier this year, then only five last time out. With double-digit Ks in three of his last four outings, I think the first outcome is much more likely and the last outing was probably an outlier.
Spencer Strider o7.5K vs. PHI (+120 FD)
Strider needs 8 today and has only 10 strikeouts over his last two starts spanning 10 innings. I am buying the dip and the great odds that come with it. He still has elite stuff and can go for double-digits any given night. He will need to be efficient to get it done because he rarely pitches more than six innings, but he can certainly get there.
Braxton Garrett o5.5K vs. CIN (-105 DK)
This is the smash play of the day! The books finally moved Garrett up to 5.5, but his odds are still suppressed, meaning we can almost double our money on him if he hits. He struck out 8 Reds last time out, and Cincy shipped out Tommy Pham to Boston last night, further weakening their lineup. Garrett has great control and is really coming into his own, there’s no reason to think he can’t get six or more here in a good match-up. I like the FD ladder up to 8 on him as well.
Tyler Anderson o4.5K vs. SFG (-145 DK)
Anderson rarely gets the respect he deserves. This is a guy who was given up on by most of the league until he rehabbed his career in Pittsburgh last year. The Dodgers have really further transformed him this year and he’s finally reaching his potential. There’s some juice on this play, but I think he gets 5 against the struggling Giants fairly easily and he just had six against them in six strong shutout innings two weeks ago.
Close but no cigar (meaning I can’t quite get there despite the projection): Gausman, Javier, Irvin, Giolito, Thompson
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props
Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases (+105 DK)
I am not a BvP truther by any means, but Betts has some unreal numbers against Wood in his career. How about 7-11 with two homers and a 2.147 OPS? Yeah, I will take that! Mookie has wOBA over .400 against lefties and all we need is a double or two singles? Sign me up.
Jurickson Profar over 1.5 total bases (+135)
I am simply riding the hot hand here! It looks like Feltner is pitching for Colorado, not Urena now, at least in the first game of the double header, but either way, I am taking a shot here on the red-hot leadoff man who has homered in three straight games and multiple hits in each of those as well.
Corey Seager over 1.5 total bases (-115)
Seager went yard last night as the DH, as the Rangers gave him a day off in the field because he was nursing a sore leg. Lyles has strong splits this year with lefties hitting him much harder, and Seager has been about as reliable of a hitter as you could ask for over the last month or more.
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
MIL -1.5 (-145 DK)
Corbin Burnes against the Pirates? And Pittsburgh is countering with…Bryse Wilson? This is the biggest mismatch of the day, the Brew Crew should hammer the Pirates on the road today.
CHW -1.5 (+120 DK)
Betting on the White Sox rarely goes well for me, but I am intrigued by these odds as most of the other lopsided match-ups today have a ton of juice, even on the run line. Giolito, if he pitches like we know he can, should be able to handle this young KC lineup, while the White Sox offense (finally getting healthier) should be able to hit Brad Keller and the KC bullpen.
CHC/STL under 8 runs (-105 DK)
I have a lot of respect for both starters here. Wainwright is having another solid year and his offspeed pitches should prove tough for these young Cubbies to handle. For Chicago, Keegan Thompson is quietly emerging as a good young pitcher, too, and the Cardinals’ offense has been pretty average lately. Both bullpens are decent. I have this game projected under 7 runs.
DET/MIN under 9 runs (-115 DK)
Detroit unders are a MAJOR trend that I have been tracking. They are now going under nearly 60% of the time this year. Some of that has to do with their scuffling offense, but a lot of it is a function of their top-5 bullpen which has helped suppress opposing offenses even while their starting pitching has been patchwork. Consider that this game only hit 8 runs last night, even with Aaron Sanchez pitching (he struck out 8 Tigers, too) and you’ll see why I can endorse an under with Manning and Archer on the hill for their respective clubs.
BAL/TEX over 8.5 runs (-115 DK)
These offenses are trending up, and we have two very hittable pitchers on the bump in this one with Spencer Howard and Jordan Lyles. The Orioles did their part with 7 runs last night and I expect Texas to score more than two runs tonight against Lyles.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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