RADIO
Kevin looks for fantasy football risers, sleepers, breakout candidates for Week 2 of 2025. He analyzes last week's targets, receptions, air yards, snaps, routes.
Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no air yards, receiving yards, receptions, or touchdowns without first earning a target. There’s a reason the biggest and most consistent target-earners are among the top fantasy point scorers; they can be relied on by not just their team’s offense to earn targets and produce on those targets.
We’ll take a weekly team-by-team review of these target earners and separate the wheat from the chaff. To properly lead into what we’ll be looking at this season, we’ll have to establish a baseline of the most important things we’re looking at with targets and other receiving metrics that paint the full picture for who we should be rostering, who we should be adding, and who we can drop.
Everything we’ll discuss in this season’s WR/TE/RB Targets, Air Yards, and Snaps trends analysis article will be some of the best metrics correlating to fantasy production. Think of targets as a page in a coloring book, representing the outline yet to be colored. Coloring on that page adds context and flavor. That’s what we’ll do with targets — adding more context than just some target totals and box score stats.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
- Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
- Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
- Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Kicker (K) fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Note: Statistics from our player pages at RotoBaller were included during the compilation of data, in addition to some of the following sites/databases: Pro Football Reference, PFF, Fantasy Points Data Suite, rbdsm.com/stats, NFELO, NFL NextGenStats, NFL Pro+, RotoViz, ESPN Stats and Info, and SumerSports.
Cardinals Notes From Week 1:
Kyler Murray was reportedly sick before Week 1 due to an illness, but he performed solidly, and despite that illness, looked significantly quicker and more agile than in previous seasons. Murray had a brutal overthrow of Marvin Harrison Jr., where Harrison cut toward the hashes from the near sideline and Murray threw it high and behind him.
Outside of that, he did enough and added 38 yards on the ground on a handful of designed runs -- sixth most in the NFL in Week 1.
Outside of that particular throw, early on, it was getting Trey McBride immediately involved with a flat pass, a designed chip and release that resulted in a Cameron Jordan sack, and then a tight end screen in the first three throws. The intent to get McBride going in the early part of the game really represents something bullish for the Cardinals’ offense and for McBride's fantasy value going forward.
McBride led the Cardinals in targets and receptions, and despite that errant throw from Murray, Harrison paced the team in receptions and caught one of the two Murray touchdowns on an isolated drag across the formation. It could have been a much bigger day from Harrison, but the intent was there, and we’ll certainly take that. No other Cardinal outside of McBride, Harrison, and James Conner caught more than one pass.
Harrison got into the slot a bit more (28 percent in Week 1 vs 25 percent in 2024), which was nice to see, and his aDOT also shortened up slightly from his 2024 year-end numbers. That’s what we’re looking for from a second-season breakout. It was curious to see Michael Wilson’s routes come down as he was a consistent 80-90 percent routes player last season.
It’s not like the Cardinals had a changeover at the skill positions; they retained every notable player at wide receiver, tight end, and running back from last season. Zay Jones and Greg Dortch took some of the extra routes from Wilson, but they’re negligible players for fantasy purposes.
Conner caught Murray’s other touchdown on a little turnaround where Conner let the defender that he would typically chip as a blocker get upfield and then sneak in behind him for the short receiving touchdown. The notable takeaway from the run game is that while Conner still remains as solid as ever with 65 percent of the snaps and 57 percent of the routes, Trey Benson was well involved in the offense from the jump.
Emari Demercado didn’t play a snap on offense, so Benson took all of Demercado's third-down work from last season and ended up with eight carries to Conner's 12, with much better efficiency. Benson needs to be added in all fantasy formats if this is the role he's going to have as a contingent play for Conner, but with added standalone value.
Falcons Notes From Week 1:
The Atlanta Falcons are typically a very condensed team, with all three wide receivers taking most of the routes, along with the tight end and the lead running back, condensing routes. Because of that, there's not a lot of room for any secondary pass-catching pieces, but they did have to make a couple of them available because of injuries to Darnell Mooney before the game and during the game, with Drake London leaving with a shoulder injury, like Casey Washington and KhaDarel Hodge.
London earned a team-high 14 targets and was every bit the target hog in the Falcons’ offense with a 47 percent first-read target rate. Kyle Pitts Sr. took an increased role once London left and started to show the athleticism that he hadn’t shown in several years.
Washington ended up running 98 percent of routes thanks to Mooney’s injury and was decent with a 3-33 line on six targets. He did run a bit of cardio on the outside while targets were flowing to the Londons and the Pitts. Also, the Robinsons! Bijan Robinson wasn’t very efficient on the ground with just 2.0 yards per carry, but he more than made up for it through the air, leading the Falcons in receiving yards and catching the only receiving score for Atlanta.
While Robinson was a bit more managed than we’d like from a rushing workload, we can’t argue with the result that led him to be the RB2 this past week, primarily through the air.
Ravens Notes From Week 1:
Derrick Henry, that guy is pretty good, right? Do I need to say any more?
Despite Lamar Jackson only having 19 dropbacks, Zay Flowers ended up with a monster 7-143-1 game and looked like the absolutely clear top receiver for the Ravens. On a team with a bunch of veterans and role players, Flowers was the do-everything player in Week 1 for Baltimore, no matter how he got the ball. If this kind of split and target-earning can hold with the Ravens’ penchant for maximum efficiency throwing the ball, we’ve got a massive fifth-round steal on our hands and more incremental breakout potential.
Only Flowers and Rashod Bateman earned more than two targets for Baltimore, as was expected with the lack of target volume here, but 86 percent routes per dropback is pretty nice. DeAndre Hopkins retains his role as a good rotational player and caught the other of Jackson’s touchdowns. Mark Andrews ran quite a few routes (73 percent) with Isaiah Likely injured, but he only earned one target on that.
There will be better weeks, but I’m at least keeping an eye on Andrews in the coming weeks as there’s a little concern building.
Bills Notes From Week 1:
It was undoubtedly one of the more fun games we’ve seen in quite some time and well worth the price of admission. A rematch of the AFC Divisional playoffs, where it was awful that one of these teams had to lose and play the Chiefs instead of these two teams playing for the AFC Championship. If Week 1 was any indication, these teams are NOT done by any stretch.
One of the big points of emphasis with the Bills through draft season was that they just had a bunch of guys and not one clear target-earning pass-catcher. Sure, they have players that CAN do it, but the routes and sheer number of players that are involved with the Bills offense make that really difficult to make a principled stand on anybody. Well, it’s possible that the answer was the second-highest-drafted Bills receiver after Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman.
Coleman was almost shocking in how he looked like the clear breadwinner for this offense, with 11 targets, an 8-112 line, and a touchdown. Sometimes you just get a different vibe based on the utilization, and it was night and day from last season, where Coleman felt like a Gabe Davis-level contributor with his deep-ball stuff.
Not so much now, as he was quiet in the first half, he made his presence known in the second half with multiple big catches, including his touchdown with under four minutes left in the game.
Shakir was solid, even Josh Palmer chipped in with some good work as well, with the trio of Shakir, Palmer, and Coleman all running at least 75 percent of routes on Josh Allen’s dropbacks. Dalton Kincaid caught a touchdown, but is still splitting the tight end role with Dawson Knox, so Kincaid right now is very difficult to trust if he’s not getting the routes we want.
James Cook almost had a second touchdown on a catch and run, but we’ll still take his 102 total yards and five receptions on 57 percent snaps. The Ty Johnson and the Ray Davis-type backs will always have their gameplan-specific role within this offense, but it’s hard not to give Cook his flowers here in what is a managed, but very fruitful fantasy role on one of the best teams in the league.
Panthers Notes From Week 1:
The Carolina Panthers (and, namely, Bryce Young) got a lot of goodwill from how they ended their 2024 season by looking like a real NFL offense. Building off that strong finish to 2024, Week 1 looked like a stinker. Young wasn’t great, barely completed half of his passes, and committed three turnovers to sink the Panthers.
At least we were all correct about Tetairoa McMillan, as, despite Young’s dubious efforts, McMillan fully looked the part of the top receiver in Carolina that should be exceptionally productive for the remainder of this decade. He was the clear top target, pacing the pass-catchers in all categories but giving up the lone touchdown to Chuba Hubbard.
Besides McMillan, the rest of the passing game was woeful. Xavier Legette probably would have been phased out by now had Jalen Coker not gotten hurt, and you know the plan was NOT to have Hunter Renfrow be your slot receiver in 2025. Both combined for 11 targets and five receptions for 21 yards. It was ugly to say the least. It was nice to see Ja'Tavion Sanders hold off Tommy Tremble to start the 2025 campaign after playing behind him for the majority of last season.
Sanders saw 65 percent of routes, which was encouraging even if the box score didn’t really show much with a 2-27 line on three targets.
Hubbard had his receiving touchdown and combined that with nice volume (16 carries, 64 percent of the team’s rush attempts) on the ground for his typical role, where Rico Dowdle spelled him and was the clear second back for the Panthers.
Bears Notes From Week 1:
While the Vikings were quiet and stormed back to take the game, it was the opposite for Caleb Williams, as he started the game 10-for-10 passing for 86 yards and had his first incompletion in the middle of the second quarter. The Vikings have a tough defense under Brian Flores, but it was a net positive for Williams that he didn’t turn the ball over and gave up just two sacks. He also led the Bears in rushing and scored their rushing touchdown as well, so all in all, it was a bad ending, but there’s nice stuff to build on here.
For the receiving game, the roles were pretty defined here with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze operating as the clear top targets, with Odunze leading the team in targets and receptions, while getting the only receiving touchdown from Williams. Odunze was at a strong 93 percent of routes here, and Moore was strong too, at 86 percent, with a few rushing attempts going his way, too.
Olamide Zaccheaus was pretty clearly third, and he seems like the early-season lead-in to Luther Burden III, who was a rotational guy in Week 1. That’s okay! That was the thesis of the play the whole time. Zaccheaus’ target-earning (six targets) is pretty bullish going forward for when the ramp-up begins on Burden, so I’m still holding on to him in my leagues as he’s a profile we have to be patient with, and there’s going to likely be some solid team passing volume that makes that particular play full of upside.
Cole Kmet was the strong routes play in Week 1, with 71 percent routes per dropback, and also saw 90 percent of snaps too, but again, the thesis of the play when it comes to Colston Loveland. Loveland is a priority hold on rosters, and you can’t just jettison him after one game unless you’re in a very shallow league with Tyler Warren out there available.
Besides Williams’ carries and the three that went to Moore, everything else was for D’Andre Swift in a pretty sizable role. With Roschon Johnson out and Kyle Monangai backing him up, Swift took the lion’s share of work and has that ticketed for him moving forward.
Bengals Notes From Week 1:
Of all the NFL teams, there may not be a more disappointing team than the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. Cincinnati put up just 141 yards of total offense and still somehow beat Cleveland 17-16 thanks to a missed extra point and a missed field goal. Joe Burrow threw for just 113 yards, and Chase Brown got the vast majority of the team's rushing attempts, but he averaged slightly over 2.0 yards per carry.
The only other back involved was Samaje Perine to handle some third-down stuff, but Brown didn't handle the full workload, unlike last season. The Bengals are trying to manage him a bit more while still retaining the huge workload.
In a game where the Bengals had just 113 yards passing, it’s no surprise that no pass-catcher had over Tee Higgins’ 33 yards. Ja'Marr Chase had a team-leading five targets, and Noah Fant caught the lone touchdown. Fant seemingly ran ahead of Mike Gesicki here, with Gesicki only seeing 38 percent of routes to Fant's 48 percent.
It's curious because of the money that was given and how much Burrow wanted the team to re-sign him, only to somewhat discard him when the Seahawks released Fant. For the time being, you can't roster Gesicki.
Browns Notes From Week 1:
It truly means something when a rookie like Harold Fannin Jr., who produced the best all-time tight end season in college, steps onto an NFL field and is sought out as a consistent option by a veteran quarterback. Oh, and Fannin ended up leading the team in targets! That’s pretty meaningful for a first game that a team, which has David Njoku already, is willing to play him in tandem with Njoku, not just sparingly.
It feels weird, seeing as it’s the Browns we’re talking about, but it’s forward-thinking and not what teams usually do.
Harold Fannin Jr Week 1
- 5 snaps from backfield (10%)
- 24 from tight (47%)
- 17 from slot (33%)
- 4 from out wide (8%)Browns used 12 personnel on 50% of plays - those snaps are safe. I think he may be used as their de facto WR3 (Tillman/Jeudy only CLE WR to play >30% snaps)
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 10, 2025
While everybody is getting their fill of “Fannin-Mania”, Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman were mainstays on the outside, with both running 96 percent routes on Joe Flacco’s dropbacks and both earning eight targets.
Not to be outdone by Fannin, and also meaningful was Dylan Sampson’s eight targets, catching all eight for 64 yards. He wasn’t a factor on the ground, however, and that could spell impending doom whenever Quinshon Judkins suits up.
Sampson may remain in on passing downs, or he gets more opportunities on the ground to show what he can do, but he’s getting his chance now and didn’t fully capitalize. Jerome Ford led the Browns in snaps and routes but had seven opportunities for a combined five yards. Not great!
Cowboys Notes From Week 1:
Just on the eye test stuff, Dak Prescott looks sharp and decisive, which is going to be a good sign moving forward. How else are they going to move the ball? Well, if you believe in the Javonte Williams reclamation project, I guess he’s an option. Williams scored two early touchdowns, averaged 3.6 yards per carry, and was RB5 on the week.
If there’s a player that screams “sell high,” it’s Williams. There’s no doubt in my mind that Williams’ night would be much less impactful had Eagles defender Jalen Carter not spat at Prescott before the first play from scrimmage. That said, his role was incredibly strong, with almost 70 percent of the rush attempts and 77 percent of the routes and snaps. Miles Sanders was a factor on his 49-yard rush attempt until he fumbled it away.
With Jaydon Blue a healthy inactive, Williams at least has a pretty clear runway for touches at the start of the season.
Against this tough Eagles’ defense, CeeDee Lamb could have had a monster day had he been able to secure a handful of receptions on top of the production he DID have. Lamb had 41 percent of the targets and was the target on 41 percent of his routes. George Pickens was much quieter, though the only target Pickens didn’t bring in was an end zone target.
As was Jake Ferguson, with an uneventful 5-23 line on six targets. Both still ran 94 and 83 percent of routes per dropback, respectively.
Broncos Notes From Week 1:
Denver did not play very well at all with Bo Nix struggling, but the Broncos still took care of business at home against the Titans, 20-12. Besides Courtland Sutton, who had 100 percent route participation and is locked into a role as you’ll find, it’s the status quo for a Sean Payton-led team. While it was nice that Marvin Mims Jr. ran more routes in Week 1 (63 percent) than he did in any game last season, it still didn’t manifest into anything other than 3.2 fantasy points from his 3-12 on four targets.
Troy Franklin saw 65 percent of routes and had the second-most targets (six) after Sutton and his 6-61-1 line on nine targets. The target tree is as widespread as it’s ever been in Denver, with 11 Broncos catching a pass in Week 1.
Not even Evan Engram is immune, as he ran the most routes of any right end on the roster, but that was just at 42 percent, and he left the game with a calf injury. Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull are still way too involved for anybody’s liking.
One interesting thing about the Broncos that we wanted to see was how they would manage rookie running back RJ Harvey. Well, J.K. Dobbins got the start and took 53 percent of the team rush attempts for 63 yards and a touchdown. To Harvey’s credit, in the limited work he received, he had a 50-yard carry that looked like he was shot out of a cannon. That run put Denver just outside the red zone, where Dobbins got his rushing touchdown from 19 yards out.
Also, Tyler Badie got way too much of the receiving work here that nobody asked for. It was in sort of a Jaleel McLaughlin-y role but without the rushing component. It’s not anything we’re super worried about from a Badie perspective, but the worry is that there are only so many routes, and for them not to go to Harvey or even Dobbins just muddies the water even more than anticipated.
Lions Notes From Week 1:
The gap between Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery grew wider in this past week, more so than in most weeks the duo has played together. While Montgomery played more in short-yardage downs, Gibbs dominated early-down work to a degree that we haven't seen before in this offense.
So, it’s looking like the Gibbs thesis in fantasy drafts as an (almost) every-down rusher with overall RB1 upside could be realized this season if everything holds. That doesn’t mean Montgomery is chopped liver; he’s still plenty startable, and there will be much better weeks ahead for this offense.
Getting the ball to Gibbs, no matter what, seems like a pretty good game plan, as he caught all 10 of his targets. There wasn’t much going on the ground for either back. For the pass-catchers, though, there wasn’t too much production through the air either, but the routes were pretty focused on Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta, who all had at least 88 percent or better routes per dropback.
Jared Goff’s history outdoors is our generation’s Drew Brees’ history outdoors, I guess!
Packers Notes From Week 1:
The Packers ran just 47 offensive plays, had 22 pass attempts, and had the second-fewest dropbacks of any team in Week 1. The defense did the heavy lifting in their 27-13 win against the Lions and were efficient from the jump with a long touchdown drive to start the game and then a quick two-play drive that resulted in a Jayden Reed touchdown.
Josh Jacobs took 76% of the total team rush attempts and scored a touchdown for the ninth consecutive regular-season game, dating back to Week 11 of last season. You’re never not starting him.
There wasn't a lot going on in the passing game as Reed and Tucker Kraft (who led the Packers in snaps and routes) both scored touchdowns, but there was no passing volume to be had, with Reed being the top target with only five targets. The wide receiver route splits were the most interesting thing about the Packers, as Romeo Doubs actually came down from his 80-90 percent routes per dropback mark from last season, with only 74 percent in Week 1.
That still led the team from the wide receiver position, but Matthew Golden only had 57 percent of routes, Reed, as a slot-only player, earned 52 percent, and Dontayvion Wicks had just 39 percent.
This is going to be an ugly split that won’t benefit anybody right now unless we get some consolidation from Golden, who figures to see his routes bump up as he gets acclimated to the NFL. The majority of the fantasy scoring in this Packers’ offense is going to be derived from touchdowns rather than target volume, and that's not something that we want to bank on going forward, even though Green Bay is going to score a bunch.
Right now, I'd be starting Reed as a flex play, Kraft as a low-end TE1, and then everybody else outside of Golden (a stash) can be left on waivers.
Texans Notes From Week 1:
In what could only be called a defensive rock fight against the Rams in Week 1, the defense came to play as they held the Rams to just 14 points. Unfortunately, the Texans’ offense could only muster three field goals and would lose 14-9. The box score was pretty gross, and it played out that way, too, but somehow, the best-looking player on the Texans was… Nick Chubb? In 2025?
Chubb was solidly efficient as per NFL Next Gen Stats. Chubb had the sixth-most RYOE with +11 and a very robust 46 percent success rate. Despite Chubb’s success and 48 percent of the team rushing attempts, the backfield was very much managed with Woody Marks, Dameon Pierce, and Dare Ogunbowale all working in. It’s probably Chubb’s backfield for the time being, as he’ll continue to get first crack as long as he’s healthy. ‘Healthy’ being the operative word.
Nothing much from Nico Collins, but he did run 88 percent of routes per dropback, and the receivers after Collins were in a pretty managed split as the veterans in the room were prioritized. Xavier Hutchinson saw the most routes after Collins with 68 percent, and then Justin Watson with 53 percent… somehow. The rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel mixed in at times, but both were used on under 50 percent of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks.
Colts Notes From Week 1:
For most of this decade, the Indianapolis Colts’ tight end room has been a mess for fantasy, with multiple tight ends in different roles, but none of them really getting into the business of target earning. That thesis has been flipped on its head when the Colts drafted Tyler Warren at No. 14 in the NFL Draft this past April. He’s immediately paying off dividends for the Colts as Daniel Jones’ top target, well, at least that was the case in Week 1.
Warren led the Colts’ pass-catchers in targets and receptions, ran 73 percent routes in his first start, and was a frequent target on the first-read stuff from Jones in this RPO-style offense with a 30 percent first-read rate. The first read in that type of offense is something that really benefits a top receiver, just like it benefited Gardner Minshew with Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs with Flacco at quarterback, since Pittman was hurt, and now with Jones and Warren as the easy read on the passing stuff.
There was a clear intent here with Warren to make him the immediate focal point, and Warren needs to be a universal start in fantasy going forward.
Tyler Warren's first NFL catch comes on the first play of the game#MIAvsIND on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/FqwGjzhiLs
— NFL (@NFL) September 7, 2025
Pittman had a really nice day as well, leading the team in receiving yardage plus catching Jones’ lone touchdown. Some of the fallout from Warren trickled down to Downs, who, as a slot-only player, really needs to make his reps count, and he did now. Warren ascending pushes Downs into a spot that won’t nearly be as fruitful if he’s A) not getting on the field when the formation condenses, and B) when he IS on the field, he’s the third target, sometimes fourth.
His reduced routes COULD be due to the health issues he’s had during training camp, but it’s still not a great spot for Downs to reclaim his previous value.
Nothing too different from past seasons with Jonathan Taylor’s role; it was strong at 71 percent of snaps, but he came off the field in the blowout. That allowed DJ Giddens to see 12 carries of his own for 41 yards.
Jaguars Notes From Week 1:
For an offense that a lot of people were excited about coming into the 2025 season, the Jaguars were disappointing at face value. That seems weird to say for a team that put up 26 points and handily beat the Carolina Panthers, but here we are. No, I’m not at all worried about Brian Thomas Jr.’s seven targets and 1-11 stat line. He salvaged his day a bit with a nine-yard rushing touchdown, but he was targeted plenty and had 100 percent route participation.
Better days ahead; that seems like something I’m saying a lot, but not everybody can be a superstar in Week 1.
I was excited to see Travis Hunter get involved to the degree he was with 82 percent routes on Trevor Lawrence’s dropbacks, but a bit shorter of an aDOT (7.3) than we’d like. He saw a lot of short targets to give him some YAC opportunities, plus a big play downfield that was thwarted by Jaycee Horn making a one-handed interception. Hunter also played six snaps on defense, with head coach Liam Coen saying he’ll get more defensive snaps in Week 2 against Cincinnati.
As for the other pass-catchers, Dyami Brown saw a sizable role with 85 percent of routes as a higher-aDOT field stretcher, and he led the wide receivers in yards with 52. I talked all offseason about how Brenton Strange was going to get a ton of routes and had no competition behind him, and his 4-59 line on four targets was solid! Blocking tight end Hunter Long scored the only receiving touchdown on the day for Jacksonville, so I’m sorry for the jinx!
Travis Etienne was a monster in Week 1, generating the most rush yards over expected (a nice +69). He took command of the backfield splits with 50 percent of the team rushing attempts, and after just one week, he had already chopped off some of the competition for his spot as the Jaguars traded Tank Bigsby (five carries, 12 yards) to the Eagles for draft picks.
Etienne has definitely moved up into the mid-range RB2, where he could get more work based on this performance, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he stays at the ~60 percent mark of snaps while the team tries to get some efficiency out of their two rookie backs.
That move should open up more opportunities for Bhayshul Tuten to work in tandem with Etienne. Rookie running back LeQuint Allen had a specific passing-down-related role as he got in on 18 percent of routes and carried the ball just one time. It will be interesting to see how these roles shake out now with Bigsby moved.
Chiefs Notes From Week 1:
It was just an all-around bad night for the Chiefs, who set the tone early with Travis Kelce, their podcaster who moonlights as a Hall of Fame tight end, running into Xavier Worthy on a crossing route and injuring his shoulder, which knocked him out for the game and potentially more games on top of that. It’s the last thing the Chiefs need with Rashee Rice already suspended for six games.
What ended up taking place was Marquise Brown earning 14 targets, and you just knew that was a game plan earmarked for Worthy. They even said as much on air, with Kurt Warner talking about the Chiefs’ game plan and how much Worthy was going to be featured as the main component.
It can’t be Kelce anymore; the offense needs some juice to be able to stay in games. Kelce did catch a touchdown, but he’s much closer to a secondary target rather than somebody that the offense is built around. Andy Reid also brushed some of the cobwebs off of JuJu Smith-Schuster and got him 5-55 on five targets. Even Tyquan Thornton got involved with a bunch of deep shots that Patrick Mahomes missed on before finally landing one, evoking every time I’ve ever watched Marquez Valdes-Scantling play.
For the run game, it’s something nobody likes: we’re in a committee here, folks. Isiah Pacheco with mostly early-down work, Kareem Hunt on short down and distance, and Brashard Smith being sprinkled in on passing downs. Mahomes led the team in 35 percent of the team's rushing attempts, with 57 yards and the lone rushing score. That should tell you how much of an afterthought the run game has gotten here with the 2025 Chiefs.
Raiders Notes From Week 1:
For myself in particular, this was a game of mood swings. It all worked itself out in the end, but the rollercoaster ride to get there was certainly something. First off: Brock Bowers’ rotational work with Michael Mayer. Bowers is clearly your best weapon in the receiving game and arguably across your entire team. To see him reel off chunk plays of 23 in the first quarter, then hit for 30 and 38 in the third quarter, means you’re cutting off your nose to spite your face.
The routes will be fine and they will work themselves out, I’m just coping a little here. Please bear with me. He also picked up a knee injury that knocked him out for the fourth quarter, and he’s ‘day-to-day’, but Bowers himself said he’s fine. I’m not sweating it, you are.
Besides Bowers, Jakobi Meyers had a nice little day of target earning, as is his brand. Meyers and Bowers really consolidated things in the receiving game, and that was the hope for this offense, where you had two excellent players taking a large chunk of targets with no third wheel or secondary receiver eating into that. Meyers and Bowers combined for over 50 percent of the team’s targets, with others earning a few here and there.
Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty had 19 carries but only averaged 2.0 yards per carry on them, though he did get a rushing touchdown and two targets as well. The role was exceptional, with almost 80 percent of the team’s rush attempts, and Zamir White providing little resistance behind him, with Raheem Mostert a surprising healthy scratch before kickoff.
Chargers Notes From Week 1:
To say that an offense coordinated by Greg Roman put up the second-highest PROE (pass rate over expected) at 13.5 percent, that’s almost mind-blowing. That’s the lone data point we have here for 2025 Week 1, but that said, it’s nothing new. From Week 7 to the end of the season in 2024, the Chargers were sixth in the NFL in PROE after having the second-lowest PROE in the NFL from Week 1 to Week 6. Also, Justin Herbert is really freaking GOOD.
Over 300 yards passing, three touchdowns, and 32 rushing yards. That’s going to play in every fantasy format. Pair that with passing volume if it holds, and we’re looking at somebody who can flirt with top-5 status.
The targets were incredibly consolidated to the top-three receivers as Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen combined for over 75 percent of the team’s total targets in Week 1. Johnston pulled in two touchdowns, Allen pulled in one, and McConkey was perfect fine as all three finished as top-24 fantasy wide receivers. This won’t be a recurring thing all season, even given the passing volume.
But it’s great to see all three receivers as the main route runners without any sort of interference from the backups… for now. I only say that as a Keandre Lambert-Smith bull who out-snapped and ran more routes than second-rounder Tre' Harris.
Does that make Johnston and Allen viable for fantasy? Johnston was likely a priority add, and he’s definitely capable of further improvement in Year 3, but for Allen, I would be selling a little high on him, as I don’t think 10 targets is going to be fair to assume for his production in the next few weeks.
We shouldn’t make rash decisions on these guys with just one data point, though, so wild reactions like assuming Johnson and Allen are going to always be difference-makers because of Week 1 are foolhardy. The inverse is true, where we can’t just ignore it.
The role for Omarion Hampton at the jump was really good; 80 percent of the snaps and 60 percent of the team rushing attempts were very bullish going forward. Some of that COULD have to do with Najee Harris and his lack of involvement in training camp because of his eye injury. Harris only got one carry and a target, so right now, he’s a very tenuous bench hold on fantasy rosters until we see this situation shake out a bit more.
Rams Notes From Week 1:
The Rams didn’t do a lot of scoring as the offense didn’t look super great, but they certainly did enough in this one as the defense held the Houston Texans to three field goals, and their 14 points were good enough for a win. The routes for the Rams’ receivers are typically concentrated, but Puka Nacua left the game a couple of times, but still put up a massive 10-130 line on a team-leading 11 targets. He’s awesome, and if he can stay healthy, he’s going to destroy worlds.
Davante Adams was the clear second target with eight targets, as Nacua consolidated targets, with over 70 of them going to those two. Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington rotated as the third, with some more of the secondary receivers like Xavier Smith and Konata Mumpfield getting run; something we’re not used to when looking at who got on the field for the Rams.
No big shock as Kyren Williams had his typical volume and massive role with 69 total yards and a touchdown on 72 percent of the team’s rushing attempts. He’s purely volume-based, but there’s no threat to his workload with Blake Corum a distant second option and rookie Jarquez Hunter being a healthy scratch before kickoff.
Dolphins Notes From Week 1:
Because the Indianapolis Colts scored on all seven of their possessions, anything the Dolphins did looked awful by comparison. Sure, the box score didn’t look super great, but De'Von Achane looked as advertised for sure with Miami’s lone touchdown, 75 total yards, and just seven rush attempts thanks to the game getting so out of hand.
Not every week is going to be like this, especially where the team waved the white flag by taking out all of the starters and inserting backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
The TPRR numbers for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were strong in such a weird game script, so when they were out there with Tua Tagovailoa, they were getting targeted. In a normal game script, that would translate into more passing intent and a better stat line. I’m not as concerned about the Dolphins as the rest of the general public seems to be, but that’s not to say I’m NOT concerned.
There’s a systemic risk here of Mike McDaniel being let go and 2025 being a lost season for the Dolphins if things don’t get right soon.
Vikings Notes From Week 1:
It was a hit-or-miss kind of game here for J.J. McCarthy, as he threw for just 143 yards, but made them count late with two touchdown passes and then a rushing score of his own to put the Vikings up 27-17 and in position to win, which they did.
With McCarthy struggling a bit, there wasn’t much going on, besides Justin Jefferson scoring the first of McCarthy’s touchdowns while leading the pass-catchers in targets (seven) and in the rest of the receiving columns. It’s likely that the meat and potatoes of this passing game are going to be from Jefferson while Jordan Addison is suspended.
Jalen Nailor (96 percent routes) also ran a huge chunk of routes but earned just one target. In Adam Thielen’s first game back, he worked both in the slot and outside and got just one target with no catch. Even T.J. Hockenson was basically a non-factor with a 3-15 line on four targets despite a good role at 84 percent of routes.
The other recipient of McCarthy’s late touchdown was Aaron Jones Sr., but he took a backseat in terms of the rushing volume to Jordan Mason. Jones ran more routes than Mason, but Mason was on the field a little more and almost doubled Jones’ carries on the night. It’s extremely plausible that Jones keeps the stranglehold on receiving work, but Mason will take more of the rushing role, possibly the goal-line stuff, and between-the-20s work.
Surprisingly, Mason did edge out Jones in third-down work, but that could be because of Mason’s superior pass-blocking.
Patriots Notes From Week 1:
Let’s start with the running game, since this is probably what people want. A true man of the people, I am, as has been said time and time again! TreVeyon Henderson was somebody who popped in a massive way in training camp and really opened people’s eyes to his upside, in the mold of a Gibbs-lite kind of way. It’s no wonder Henderson was being steamed heavily in drafts up to the third round.
The Patriots did what they could to get the ball in his hands with six targets and five rushing attempts. The intent was clearly there for Henderson, and he still had more touches (11) than Rhamondre Stevenson (nine). Stevenson averaged just over 2.0 yards per carry and was generally abysmal. He did himself no favors here, but it was a tough day for New England all around.
The Patriots aren’t too condensed, with Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte, and Henderson earning six or more targets. Still, Boutte led everything for the Patriots, outside of the touchdown that went to DeMario Douglas. Diggs’ role without a lot of slot utilization was surprising since he did so well in that role for the Texans last season before he got hurt, but either way, Diggs will be a huge positive in the better games for the Patriots’ passing game and for quarterback Drake Maye.
Boutte, a former top recruit from LSU, has seen the bulk of his pro career as a strictly outside receiver, who earned a ton of routes as the ‘X’ receiver, but the targets didn’t always come. In fact, they were a bit rare for Boutte in 2024, only averaging 4.5 targets per game. He went off to co-lead the team with eight targets and a 6-103 line while leading the Patriots in routes per dropback.
It’s one data point, but it’s an interesting one to see if his role and production can grow ala Jauan Jennings last season, another unheralded player who got better until he couldn’t be ignored.
Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte: "I think people fail to realize that at one point in time, I was a first round pick, just before my surgery. I think a lot of people doubt that I can do what I do, but, I mean, I always knew what I can do, but for some people it is a surprise. But to…
— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) September 8, 2025
Saints Notes From Week 1:
For whatever the Spencer Rattler era means in New Orleans, was Tyler Shough THAT bad that he couldn’t beat out Rattler? That said, Rattler didn't look like an abject disaster in Week 1. New Orleans had the third-most dropbacks in Week 1 and outgained the Cardinals in total yardage, thanks to running the seventh-most plays this week.
Both Chris Olave (13) and Juwan Johnson (11) had double-digit targets for the Saints in Week 1, with Rashid Shaheed just behind with nine targets. This trio made up what was a pretty concentrated offense that saw the trio earn 80.5 percent of the team’s targets. You have to figure Alvin Kamara will be a bigger part of the receiving game in most weeks in terms of target volume. Still, it was very interesting to see that Rattler could support multiple pass catchers in each week, even in a negative game script.
With Johnson in particular, it was very interesting to see that he consolidated routes at the tight end position with 96 percent route participation, which was mostly because of Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill being injured, and those two would be well ahead of the current tight ends after Johnson, those being Jack Stoll and Moliki Matavao.
Johnson is a clear add in all but the shallowest fantasy formats right now, as he is challenging Shaheed for the second target in this offense and as a top-two target on the team, which would make him clearly a viable fantasy starter.
It was nice to see that Olave could get back on the field after the concussion history that he had last season, and for him to put up 88 percent of routes per dropback and a 32 percent target share. I do think that this offense will be a little bit better than people anticipated if head coach Kellen Moore is green-lighting this kind of pass volume in a loss.
Kamara was the clear top back here with 79 percent snaps and 74 percent routes, but there wasn't a lot of rushing volume thanks to the game script. Kendre Miller and Devin Neal worked behind, but the contingency plan in case of a Kamara injury is pretty unclear and likely would be a split between Miller and Neal.
Giants Notes From Week 1:
Why Russell Wilson is still a starter in the NFL is beyond me, but that’s the New York Giants that Brian Daboll is trotting out. Malik Nabers (5-71 on a team-leading nine targets) and Wan'Dale Robinson (6-55 on eight targets) combined for over 60 percent of the Giants’ targets on the afternoon. No other pass-catcher caught more than two balls.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. had the clear advantage in time on the field, but didn’t really do much with it, averaging 2.4 yards per carry on his 10 totes. Actual octogenarian Wilson actually led the team in rushing yards and had eight carries. Why? Hopefully, we get some Jaxson Dart much sooner rather than later, because it’s hard to watch Wilson for long stretches.
Jets Notes From Week 1:
Not too much to say here about the Jets, besides that, a team using Justin Fields to accentuate the positives and hide the negatives is pretty refreshing to see. Obviously, Fields is a bit limited as a passer, and I don’t think anybody is disputing that, but the 48 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on top of 218 yards passing and a touchdown through the air are very encouraging for the ceiling case in fantasy.
Justin Fields 🎯 Garrett Wilson
Wilson led NYJ w/ 101 rec, 1,104 rec yds, 7 TD in 2024 (all career-highs)
Watch live local games on #NFLPlus
Blackout restrictions may applypic.twitter.com/IwCOEV2bvy— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) September 7, 2025
Garrett Wilson consolidated everything, as was expected, as the clear and I do mean CLEAR top receiving option. A 7-95 line and a touchdown, with 100 percent route participation? Sign me up. Days like this won’t be fruitful, but even if they’re not, Wilson’s efficiency will boost him as long as there’s no clear second option for the Jets. Josh Reynolds also had 100 percent route participation as the second receiver, but he hasn’t been a consistent target earning player for years, so he’s going to be out there almost by default.
We dragged Breece Hall further and further down fantasy draft boards, but did we forget that he’s insanely talented and can make up for the gap in potential touches with elite efficiency (+28 RYOE). But if he gets the rushes as well? Now we’re cooking. Hall only got 32 percent of the routes and just shy of 60 percent of the snaps as Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis worked in, but Hall had almost 50 percent of the team rush attempts and made the most of his touches.
The other backs will continue to get worked in, but the market share just has to increase a bit in future weeks for Hall, right?
Eagles Notes From Week 1:
The story for the Eagles was the same story it’s been from 2024: low pass volume (23 pass attempts) and being totally content running the ball with Jalen Hurts (62 rushing yards, two touchdowns) and some guy named Saquon Barkley. He didn’t have a great game (compared to his efforts last season) with 84 total yards, but he did score a touchdown to close the second quarter.
When the Eagles DID pass… well, it was a pretty condensed passing chart with ONE pass over nine yards – the Jahan Dotson 51-yard completion.
Jalen Hurts was incredibly efficient in the Eagles' win, but I am baffled that Philly took only one shot deeper than 20 yards (the 51-yarder to Dotson) the entire game.
Kevin Patullo has elite weapons in AJB, DeVonta Smith, Goedert, and Dotson, but he's going to have to push the… pic.twitter.com/7hMPcY8r5x
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) September 5, 2025
The Eagles were typically concentrated in their routes as usual, with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert all above 85 percent routes per dropback. With little pass volume and Hurts’ 4.5-yard aDOT, there wasn’t going to be much goodness for fantasy. Still, Goedert at least compiled some volume as he was the clear leader in targets and receptions, with Dotson’s 51-yard grab putting him ahead for the team lead in receiving yards.
Steelers Notes From Week 1:
What a wild, unexpected game we got from Steelers vs. Jets, as it was the lowest over/under (38) of the entire Week 1 slate, and both teams were a touchdown away from eclipsing that as the Steelers won 34-32.
Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes, but the volume wasn’t massive here, with DK Metcalf’s 4-83 pacing the team and Calvin Austin III chipping in with 4-70 plus a touchdown early in the fourth quarter. Austin’s routes were the most surprising thing: at 85 percent of dropbacks.
From a gadgety-type pass-catcher in last season’s iteration of the Steelers’ offense with Fields and Russell Wilson to a nearly-every-down wide receiver with Rodgers at quarterback, what a long, strange trip it’s been for Austin. The utilization is the most interesting thing here about Austin, not that he produced, because he’s almost always been a solid, somewhat-efficient receiver with limited routes.
Now, WITH routes, he has a bit of a runway to become much more than he was. Granted, we’re not always going to get games like this, but it IS encouraging as a speculative addition to your fantasy benches to see if he can build off it.
The Steelers also aren’t going to throw for four touchdowns each week, but as a clear, somewhat consolidated passing offense where I count both Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith (both with 53 percent of routes per dropback) as one tight end since they both share one role, there’s room here for Austin. I like making a bet on somebody who not only has earned routes, but has put some distance behind the other guys like Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek. Even if the latter scored a touchdown on his only target of the game.
Some of the story here for the Steelers’ run game is that Kenneth Gainwell had a sizable role in Week 1, as if we could expect anything less from Arthur Smith, right? Gainwell saw more time on the field than Jaylen Warren, but both were ineffective aside from Warren’s receiving touchdown. Gainwell’s role feels like it could be absorbed by both Johnson and Warren quickly when Johnson gets up to speed with the offense.
To be clear, I’m not advocating for going pick up Gainwell by any means, but if you need somebody to get some time on the field at running back, he’s for sure one of the options of all time.
49ers Notes From Week 1:
The San Francisco 49ers are fighting not just other NFL teams every week, but also are fighting their battles with attrition on their own sideline. With a shoulder and turf toe injury, Brock Purdy is slated to miss at least two weeks, and Jennings also hurt his shoulder, but is listed as day-to-day, as his Week 2 status is up in the air.
We DO know George Kittle will miss at least four weeks as he was placed on IR with a calf injury. Kittle left in the first half after catching all four of his targets for 25 yards, and he caught a touchdown as well. Jake Tonges came in to run the complement of routes Kittle would run, but he’s certainly not a realistic option for fantasy managers.
As for the rest of the healthy options here, Ricky Pearsall (team-leading 92 percent routes) could be a big beneficiary of target volume, and he made the most of his six targets, catching four for 108 yards. The quality of those potential targets with a hobbled Purdy or backup Mac Jones remains to be seen. That said, Jones DID support the breakout of Thomas last season in Jacksonville, so it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary.
Or maybe the 49ers just lean on Christian McCaffrey, who wasn’t nearly as efficient as we’ve seen in previous seasons, but on 31 touches, he caught 9-of-10 targets for 73 yards and then added 69 yards on the ground too. Brian Robinson Jr. was also involved with nine carries to spell McCaffrey, but the run game could prove to be a bigger factor for the 49ers if Purdy is sidelined.
Seahawks Notes From Week 1:
It’s difficult to properly display the video-game-level efficiency and massive volume we saw from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but I’ll try!
- 59 percent target share
- 66.7 percent first-read target share
- 57 percent targets per route run
- 91 percent of Seattle’s air yards
Pretty good, I’d say! To compare, Cooper Kupp’s three targets and 2-15 line on 96 percent routes looks pretty awful. The numbers won’t always be like this for JSN, but he’s clearly and so evidently the top target here for Sam Darnold, and while Darnold threw for just 150 yards, the intent with which Darnold targeted JSN was abundantly clear. We have to move JSN up a tier.
For the run game, the touches were nearly even with Kenneth Walker III (13) and Zach Charbonnet (12) chopping them, but Charbonnet looked much better with those. Now, Walker has missed some time in training camp, and the drumbeat was that this backfield could be more of a split than people were letting on.
Curiously, the ADP on both guys didn’t shift in a meaningful way, so it was a bit easier to take advantage of that to get more shares of Charbonnet. I would be trying to get him on my fantasy roster via trade, as his value is still a bit depressed thanks to the backfield split.
Buccaneers Notes From Week 1:
Inefficiency was pretty much the name of the game for the Buccaneers as they kind of backed into a win in Week 1 against the Atlanta Falcons. While Bucky Irving caught a nine-yard touchdown pass, he wasn’t great on the ground with just 2.6 yards per carry. The role (76 percent of snaps, 61 percent of team rush attempts) was pretty substantial, though.
Rachaad White was much less involved in Week 1 than he was last season, but it’s also possible that White’s groin injury from the preseason could have played a factor in how involved White would be.
With no Chris Godwin or Jalen McMillan, the three wide receivers were Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, and Sterling Shepard. Evans was solid and led the team in targets, but he wasn’t the clear top target in this one as Egbuka grabbed the headlines with two touchdown grabs in his first game.
The six targets for Egbuka aren’t particularly impressive, but he at least made the absolute most of the opportunities he was given. Shepard also earned six targets but was much less involved on 73 percent of routes. Cade Otton ran some cardio and earned two catchless targets.
Titans Notes From Week 1:
You have to figure that Cameron Ward was sitting in the visiting locker room after losing 20-12 to the Denver Broncos and gave the Andy Bernard quote from The Office, “I wanted it to go better!” It actually did NOT go great for Ward, who struggled big time. He’s a rookie, it happens. Rome wasn’t built in a day; many are saying this!
Calvin Ridley saw his typical big route share (94 percent routes), and Elic Ayomanor should be universally added as a clear as crystal second wide receiver for an offense that won’t have to play the Denver Broncos on the road every game. Ayomanor earned seven targets, was targeted pretty deep, led the Titans with a 36.8 percent first-read target rate, and ran 82 percent of routes in his first game.
He showed clear target-earning ability, and I’m very much in. Real estate agent and wide receiver Tyler Lockett got 77 percent of routes per dropback, earned one target, and didn’t catch it. Yawn.
Speaking of prominent roles, that’s Tony Pollard without Tyjae Spears backing him up. Pollard went 18-60 on 86 percent of Tennessee’s rush attempts. He’s a pretty clear workhorse here for the Titans that will also have better days.
Commanders Notes From Week 1:
I was excited for this game from the Commanders’ side to see how they were going to deploy Deebo Samuel Sr. and also, what would become of the running game after a training camp in which it (and Jacory Croskey-Merritt) was one of the biggest talking points for any team. I am happy to report that the demise of Samuel is greatly exaggerated.
Jayden Daniels finds Deebo Samuel to convert on 3rd & 11
NYGvsWAS on FOXhttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/3wwh2u16kB
— NFL (@NFL) September 7, 2025
Samuel was in the slot about 70 percent of the time on his 84 percent routes per dropback and paced the team with a 7-77 line on a team-leading 10 targets. He looked healthy and dynamic, both of which were lacking at points over the last season or two in San Francisco. Terry McLaurin took a little bit of a backseat here, where he ran his usual 85-90 percent routes per dropback, but the production didn’t come along for the ride.
It could have been better for McLaurin had Jayden Daniels connected with him on a deep throw that would have been a touchdown. Zach Ertz earned a sizable chunk of the routes and scored a touchdown as he continues to defy Father Time.
As for the run game, Austin Ekeler took command in terms of routes and snaps, but Croskey-Merritt showed some nice athleticism that carried over from training camp and the preseason when Croskey-Merritt bounced a run to the outside for a six-yard touchdown and then took a run 42 yards very late in the fourth quarter. Hilariously, he did this on just 33 percent of snaps, so it’s a situation where the genie is out of the lamp here, and he cannot go back in.
Deebo Samuel on Bill Croskey Merrit pic.twitter.com/KBgCdDDVwU
— Peckins (@Peckins6) September 11, 2025
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