WR Target and Snap Count Analysis from Week 7

Phil Clark examines the most important changes in target share, red zone targets, and snap count for wide receivers ahead of Week 8 of the 2018 NFL season to help fantasy football owners make informed lineup decisions.

Your wide receivers remain essential components toward accomplishing your unwavering goal of securing a league championship. As the season unfolds, it is crucial for you to utilize the tools that you have available, in order to maintain an extensive level of knowledge regarding the number of opportunities that are being provided to your wide receivers - both in terms of their snap counts and how often they are being targeted by their quarterbacks.

Each week, this article will examine these specific categories, along with any other noteworthy changes in usage that signal an increase or regression in opportunity. This will bolster your efforts to determine which wide receivers should be in your lineups, and which are worthy of remaining on your rosters. Pro Football Reference and NFL Savant were used to obtain all target and red zone target totals, while snap count information was assembled with information from Football Outsiders.

We now are in possession of data from seven weeks of game action that will provide the basis for comparison of snap counts and targets for each receiver. This will include the most likely candidates to experience a rise or decline in those numbers during the upcoming weeks. Here is a breakdown of the most compelling changes in usage and opportunity from Week 7.

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Overall Targets

Adam Thielen's grip on the league lead in overall targets has been unwavering (89) after he collected 10 more in Week 7. He has accumulated double-digit targets in every contest (12, 13, 19, 12, 10, 13, 10), which has played an integral role in his ability to also capture a league-high 67 receptions, and assemble the NFL's most receiving yards (822).

Jarvis Landry is second in overall targets (82), followed by Julio Jones (81), Odell Beckham Jr. (80), Stefon Diggs (73), Antonio Brown (72), DeAndre Hopkins (71), Davante Adams (71), and A.J. Green (69). In addition to the eight different receivers that have now accumulated at least 70 targets, a total of 13 have attained 60+.

Landry's 15 targets were the most among all receivers in Week 7, followed by Diggs and Green with 14. Julio Jones was next with 12, followed by Beckham, Evans, and Funchess with 11, while Thielen, Alshon Jeffery, Tyreek Hill, Donte Moncrief, and Robby Anderson all were targeted 10 times. Thielen’s 12.7 targets per game also paces the position, while Brown (12), Adams (11.8), Landry (11.7), Diggs, (10.5), JuJu Smith-Schuster (10.5), Hopkins (10), and Green (10) are the only other receivers that are currently averaging double-digit targets on a weekly basis.

However, Alshon Jeffery is on the threshold of joining them (9.75), as are the other four receivers who are averaging at least nine per game - Michael Thomas (9.6), Golden Tate (9.5), Mike Evans (9.1), and Michael Crabtree (9).

Other noteworthy averages include Funchess, who is averaging 7.8 targets per game, but has averaged 8.4 since receiving a season-low five during Carolina's season opener (9, 7, 7, 8, 11). Cole Beasley's 6.1 target per game average rises significantly when you extract Weeks 2-5 (4 per game), as he has collected 19 targets in his last two contests (9.5 per game).

Despite enduring his lowest target total since opening day (2), Antonio Callaway still leads all rookies with 42 for the season. Christian Kirk is second with 39, after collecting 23 in his last five contests. Calvin Ridley (35), Courtland Sutton (33), and Keke Coutee (30) comprise the top five, even though Coutee is now contending with a troublesome hamstring injury.

Largest Increases And Decreases

Most of this week’s increases and decreases in targeting will focus on differentials between Weeks 6-7, with the exception of receivers who missed their Week 6 matchups due to injuries, or their byes. In those scenarios, we will compare the Week 5 results to what occurred in Week 7.

Diggs had collected double-digit targets during four consecutive games (Weeks 2-5: 13, 10, 15, 11) before experiencing a significant regression in Week 6 (-7). However, his 14 targets represented an improvement of 10, which was the largest increase of the week. Moncrief was next with a +7 surge from 3 to 10, as his wildly erratic weekly totals (5, 9, 3, 5, 15, 3, 10) have recently made him a consistent presence in this section.

Callaway has collected double-digit targets twice this season, including the 11 that he received in Week 6. But the rookie was only targeted twice in Week 7, which was the largest decline of the week (-9). He has now caught a total of six passes since Week 5, while averaging just 15 YPG. Both his output and his level of involvement should concern anyone who has been starting him, as what had appeared to be an opportunity to function as Cleveland’s second receiving option has virtually disappeared due to his struggles.

Kenny Golladay had garnered at least nine targets in three of Detroit's first five games. But when the Lions returned from their Week 6 bye, Matthew Stafford only launched a season-low two passes in his direction. The precipitous drop of -7 was the second largest decline of the week. A grouping of four receivers – Thielen, Tyler Boyd, Chester Rogers, Pierre Garcon and Mohamed Sanu – were all allotted five fewer targets in Week 7. While Thielen’s overall total was hardly problematic, Sanu (2), and Garcon (1) were barely utilized during their games.

Red Zone Targets

Even though Juju Smith-Schuster and Davante Adams were absent from Week 7 game action due to their byes, they are still the top two receivers in red zone targets for the season, with Smith-Schuster (16) just ahead of Adams (15). It is worth mentioning again that eight of Smith-Schuster’s red zone opportunities were accrued as part of his 19 target/13 reception/142-yard outing versus Kansas City in Week 2. Thomas is next (14), followed by Green (13), Landry (13), Hopkins (12), Beckham (12), and OBJ's teammate Sterling Shepard (12). Thielen (11), and Cooper Kupp (11) are the only other receivers who have attained double-digit totals.

Hopkins continues to pace all receivers with 10 targets inside the 10-yard line, with Thomas (9), Godwin (8), Kupp (7), and four receivers that have attained six - Green, Marvin Jones, T.Y. Hilton, and Corey Davis. Six of those targets to Hopkins have occurred since Week 4, while the last three red zone targets that have been launched toward Thomas occurred from the opponents’ 5-yard line.

Largest Increases And Decreases

In Week 7, Landry and Beckham led all receivers with four red zone targets, followed by Shepard, Edelman, and Davis (3). The inclusion of Davis in multiple categories of red zone targeting could be causing some of his frustrated owners to cringe. Particularly considering the diminished production that he has delivered this season despite nine red zone targets. Since his season-best 9 reception/161-yard performance in Week 4, he has managed a grand total of only eight catches, while averaging 27.6 YPG. That includes just 10 yards on three receptions in Week 7.

Since Week 6, Landry, Beckham, Shepard, and Julian Edelman have all accumulated six red zone targets, while Jeffrey (5) Tyreek Hill (4) Cole Beasley (4) and Zay Jones (4) have all achieved notable usage. Beckham has also collected eight of his 12 targets during the Giants’ last three games, while Jeffery and Edelman have both amassed seven during that span.

Thielen and Hill have captured six targets during that same three-game sequence, while Thielen, Beckham, Landry, Shepard, and Jeffery have also been targeted nine times since Week 4, followed by Hopkins and Hill with eight. There will be more discussion about the recent usage of Jeffery and Edelman in the 5 Things That I Noticed section.

Snap Counts  

Hopkins continues to be the predominant receiver in snap count data, similar to Thielen's presence atop the target category. His 499 snaps slightly edge Jarvis Landry (498), however, it is the fact that Hopkins performs on essentially 100% of Houston's offensive snaps with an extreme consistency that is most impressive. Thielen (472/97%) is third behind Landry, followed by Woods (448/96%), Beckham (428/96%), Shepard (422/94), Diggs (421/87), Adams (412/95%), Agholor (408/92.5%), Michael Thomas (376/90%), and Marvin Jones (370/93%), as this group of 11 are all performing on over 90% of the team's offensive snaps.

Randall Cobb is the only other receiver who achieved a 90% count this season, as he averaged 91.3% from Weeks 1-3, before his lingering hamstring issue forced him to the sideline. He could return this week, although it is uncertain if he would be capable of immediately absorbing the same number of routes that he had run prior to his injury.  This will be something to observe, if you have patiently awaited his return, or have recently seized him from your waiver wire.

Largest Increases And Decreases

Edelman has been mentioned several times as a result of encouraging numbers that have been prevalent throughout every category that is discussed in this column. That includes his season-best 98% snap count which continued the steady rise that has occurred since his Week 5 return (70%, 91%, 98.4%).

Amendola also achieved a season-high 98.2% snap count, which has sustained a gradual increase since he averaged 72% from Weeks 1-3. That rose to 84.5% in Weeks 4-5 and has now expanded to 97% during Miami's last two contests. Meanwhile, 35-year old Larry Fitzgerald also performed on 97% of Arizona's snaps, which was his highest total since Week 1.

A number of receivers experienced a decrease as the result of injuries during last week's matchups.  Unfortunately for Callaway, the fallout from his Week 6 struggles also infiltrated the snap count, which regressed to 75%, after he had performed on over 90% of Cleveland offensive snaps in Week 6. His Week 7 total also represented a decline from the 81.4% that he averaged from Weeks 2-6.

Former owners of Josh Doctson are probably too disenchanted to have any enthusiasm toward trusting him, but his count skyrocketed to 95% in Week 7. The combined absence of Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson elevated his importance to the Redskin offense, after a heel injury and general ineffectiveness had previously limited him to 62% of Washington’s snaps. Doctson’s involvement could remain high this week if Crowder and Richardson remain sidelined.

Five Things I Noticed

1. Alshon Jeffery is on the threshold of joining the league leaders in multiple categories, after accruing outstanding numbers since his Week 4 return. He has averaged just under 10 targets per game (9.75), his overall usage has been both consistent and impressive (9/8/12/10), and he has also stockpiled coveted targets in the red zone (2/2/3/2). Those chances inside the 20 have tied him for the most red zone targets since Week 4, and his overall total (9) has tied him for 11^th  overall after just four contests. Owners who were forced to exercise patience during his absence have been rewarded, and his status as Philadelphia’s undisputed WR1 should supply confidence that nothing beyond a health issue will disrupt his ongoing accumulation of fantasy points. 

2. Julian Edelman’s usage and rising output have also been impressive, as the ninth-year receiver has played more snaps than any other Patriot receiver in Weeks 6-7 (71/91% - 63/98%), while also averaging eight targets and 2.3 red zone targets per game since returning from suspension in Week 5. He has captured seven red zone targets in that three-game sequence (1/3/3), and is tied for first with three other receivers for the most red zone targets in Weeks 6-7. He has been my primary trade target at this position, since some of his owners may not fully realize what he has accomplished since his reemergence. 

3. In two full games without Ted Ginn in New Orleans' lineup, Tre'Quan Smith has caught six of his nine targets, while accumulating 155 yards and two touchdowns. During that two-game span, Cameron Meredith has collected all five of his targets, while manufacturing 71 yards. However, all of that was accrued in Week 5, as he did not register a single target in Week 7 after the Saints returned from their Week 6 bye. Smith performed on 52/73% of the Saints’ offensive snaps, which was substantially higher than Meredith, who played on just 18/25% of New Orleans' snaps. Smith’s 70% average in the past two games has also doubled the number for Meredith (35%). These developments should be extremely encouraging for anyone who astutely stashed Smith before the rush to seize him ensued this week.

4. Baltimore's trio of wide receivers - Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Snead - can all be started confidently on a weekly basis, as they have captured 168 of the Ravens' 299 total targets (56.2%), and all reside among the top 30 in targets per game (Crabtree 9 / Brown 7.7 / Snead 7.1). Crabtree's game-by-game target totals have been relatively consistent (6-12), as have Snead's (5-10), while Brown's numbers contain the widest range (4-14).  Considering the definitive lack of a dependable presence at tight end - Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle, Hayden Hurst, and Maxx Williams have combined for 64 targets - they should continue to garner a desirable number of opportunities throughout the season.

5. Sterling Shepard deserves mention, as his name rarely is involved during discussion of the league's most productive receivers this season. His contributions are obscured by conversation regarding about Beckham, Saquon Barkley’s exceptional rookie season, and Eli Manning's clear regression as an NFL starter. But amid those topics, and the Giants disappointing season, Shepard is among the league leaders in every category that is discussed in this weekly column. He is currently tied for fifth among wide receivers with 12 red zone targets, is averaging 7.7 targets per game, and only five receivers have performed on more snaps. He is also averaging 14.4, fantasy points per game, which places him at WR 23. His output is notable given the presence of Beckham, and the overall dynamics of the Giant offense. Shepard should continue to provide his owners with extreme consistency during the remainder of the season.

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