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Justin Carter breaks down Jaguars WR Keelan Cole's Week 2 performance and evaluates whether he is a fantasy football riser at WR going forward in the 2020 NFL season.
Welcome to the second week of Tape Tells All, now with 100 percent more tape since the All-22 film is up!
If you aren't familiar with this series, I take a guy who did some interesting things this past week, fire up All-22 film and a bunch of advanced stats, and then use those things in unison to figure some things out about the player in question.
This week, we're looking at Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Keelan Cole. In Week 2, Cole caught six passes for 58 yards and a touchdown.
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Background Information
Last year, it looked like Keelan Cole was done in Jacksonville.
After a rookie year that saw him catch 42 passes for 748 yards in 2017, his numbers dropped to 38 catches fr 491 in 2018 and then down to 24 catches for 361 yards in 2019. He played 75 percent of the team's snaps just twice last season and had five games without a single target. Then Jacksonville drafted Laviska Shenault Jr. this year. You'd be forgiven for thinking that Cole was on his way out in Jacksonville.
But something's changed this season, and that something has been that Dede Westbrook has been a healthy scratch each game, which has meant that the addition of Shenault didn't send Cole to the bench. Instead, Cole is the only Jaguars player with double-digit targets this season, and he leads the team in receptions and touchdowns and is a close second to D.J. Chark Jr. in yards.
Cole is second on the team in air yards, though his aDOT ranks seventh among the 10 Jaguars players to be targeted this season. Cole is mainly playing the slot role that we thought Westbrook would play, and his success so far seems to suggest that Westbrook's not getting that role back.
The Game Tape
Let's watch Cole's game tape from this week.
We'll start with Cole's first reception. He starts as the inside receiver on the left side of the formation. Tennessee isn't going with man coverage here, and Cole is able to find a soft spot in the zone on this little curl route. This is...exactly what the Jaguars need Keelan Cole to do, and he does it!
Love the pre-snap motion from the tight end here, which almost seems to make the defense forget that Cole is even over there. Gardner Minshew drops the ball off to him right after the snap, and from there Cole's got a nice bubble of space to work in until the defense catches up to him and gang tackles him.
Sure is a lot of short yardage work here for Cole! As mentioned above, his air yards per play are really low. That's 100 percent going to negatively impact Cole's ceiling this year, even if his current usage suggests he has a high floor.
Maybe we can see a play where Cole gains at least a few more yards? Maybe...23 of them?
So, good news: Cole made a catch down the field!
Possible bad news: he really got no separation on this play, and it ends up looking like the 23-yard version of his short-yardage plays, which is that he positions himself well to make the catch but then there isn't really much happening after the catch, as Cole turns out of bounds. Of course, he needed to get out of bounds to stop the clock here, but even if he hadn't, he wasn't getting anything after the catch.
Even Cole's touchdown was short, with a two-yard score:
Have to say that I love everything about this play.
Jacksonville motions Laviska Shenault Jr. into the backfield pre-snap, which instantly puts the Titans Defense on notice. Then, at the snap, Shenault circles around behind Minshew like this is an option play, which leads to one of the Titans linebackers to have to do a big "WHOOPS GOING THE WRONG WAY" pause. Then, Minshew rolls out to the right, forcing the defense to crash down toward him. With the multiple Titans defenders deciding to go after Minshew here, Cole who started this play in the slot and spent much of it stuttering around the front line of the end zone, is able to slip into the open space in the back of the end zone for a touchdown.
Side note here that isn't directly related to Cole: you can already see how the addition of Jay Gruden as the offensive coordinator is making this team far less predictable. Somehow, in spite of what appears from the outside to be a big lack of talent on this team, they're making things work on offense. The Jaguars are a scary team to play! They're not going to end up with the No. 1 pick! Gardner Minshew is here to stay!
But anyway, Keelan Cole. What do we think of him?
Fantasy Impact
The big thing about Keelan Cole for me is that he seems to be trending into a certain realm of player that I like a lot in deep, full PPR leagues as a solid flex play. I call it the "Cole Beasley Slot Guys" role. Like Beasley, Keelan Cole is not going to have some big, explosive game where he breaks off a 85-yard touchdown or something. He'll line up in the slot most of the time. He'll get a good number of targets in the short passing game, and because those are relatively easy catches to make, he'll make them, and because he made them, the offense will keep trusting him more and keep using him on those plays.
It's a cycle.
D.J. Chark is still the lead receiver here for fantasy purposes, because his ability to be a downfield threat gives him so much more upside than Cole. To return to the Beasley analogy, it's like how Cole Beasley might lead the Bills in targets on any given week, but you aren't ranking him ahead of Stefon Diggs a single time. Except Cole might be in a slightly safer spot than Beasley, because while Beasley also has to contend with John Brown for targets, Cole has to contend with rookie Laviska Shenault Jr. and Chris Conley.
Anyway, all this is to say that Keelan Cole should be on your roster in a 12-team, full PPR league, and he should 100 percent be someone you use once bye weeks start to strike, or if injuries have you depleted. Keelan Cole will not win you a fantasy league and his touchdown rate is going to fall, but there's something to be said for a steady player who can make positive plays and give you a solid fantasy floor.
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