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The 2023 Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs comes to a close on Monday. Below you can read our Monday Night Football matchups analysis article for the Steelers vs. Bills game to help make any fantasy lineup decisions for single-game DFS contests.
While Monday was originally scheduled to feature a single MNF matchup between the Eagles and Bucs, extreme weather conditions in the New York area prompted the NFL to move this Steelers vs. Bills matchup from its original Sunday night slot to a 4:30 ET kickoff on Monday afternoon.
Read our fantasy football breakdowns for this game -- the recommended starts, sits, and matchups we love heading into an exciting game during Wild Card Weekend. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -10.0
Implied Total: Steelers (13.5) vs. Bills (23.5)
Pace: Steelers (22nd) vs. Bills (26th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 9.6% Pass (20th), -3.2% Rush (12th)
Bills Off. DVOA: 40.9% Pass (3rd), 3.1% Rush (7th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: -3.8% Pass (6th), -13.6% Rush (9th)
Bills Def. DVOA: 0.1% Pass (9th), -8.7% Rush (17th)
PFF Coverage Grade: Steelers (17th) vs. Bills (4th)
PFF Rush D Grade: Steelers (9th) vs. Bills (29th)
Offensive EPA/Play: Steelers (23rd) vs. Bills (3rd)
EPA/Play Allowed: Steelers (7th) vs. Bills (11th)
WEATHER: The forecast for Buffalo caused the game to be rescheduled. The new time will still have snow, cold temperatures, and wind, but not nearly to the degree as was expected on Sunday. It lessens the impact on the passing attack and overall scoring.
Matchups We Love
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Allen's dominance with another QB1 overall season was extremely impressive. He's also led his team to five straight wins to secure the No. 2 seed and the right to host the Steelers. They've knocked off some quality teams along the way, so while Pittsburgh boasts one of the NFL's best coaches, especially regarding preparation and discipline, this ought to be a blowout. It's a particularly juicy matchup because T.J. Watt is out, which significantly reduces their pass rush. With extra time to carve up the defense, Allen ranks as the QB1 this week.
Josh Allen made some big time throws for the AFC East 👑
(via @NextGenStats) pic.twitter.com/PhdgWuvij5
— NFL (@NFL) January 11, 2024
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Diggs finally broke through with a good game in Week 18, partially because the Bills put him in motion to avoid Jalen Ramsey. It was great to see and just in time for the playoffs. It also coincided with a knee injury to Gabe Davis, who has yet to practice and seems poised to miss this week. Joey Porter Jr. is a talented CB, so Diggs' value takes a small hit. He does carry some risk given the volatility this year, but in a playoff contest, you'd anticipate they'll be looking his way. He sits around the WR10 this week.
UPDATE: Davis has been ruled out as expected.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)
The Steelers have been a great matchup for tight ends the past five weeks, which bodes well for Kincaid, who has reemerged. He had a nice run when Dawson Knox was sidelined before disappearing in Weeks 15 and 16. However, he finished the season with stat lines of 4/87 and 8/84. Once you get past the big four at tight end, there's no one better than Kincaid, who has a chance to compete with those other players. You could also throw a dart on Knox in deeper formats given his usage near the goal line.
Matchups We Hate
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)
Freiermuth is coming off an injury-riddled year with one great game. He hasn't been relevant for several weeks and isn't worth trusting in any format this week.
Mason Rudolph (QB, PIT)
12 signal-callers are suiting up this weekend. You could make a case to order them in a multitude of different ways, except for Rudolph, the clear-cut No. 12 QB. They'll hope defense and a strong run game can keep them close against the Bills.
#Steelers QB Mason Rudolph will be starting this week against the #Bills pic.twitter.com/ilLrJSVls7
— The Standard (@TheStandard412) January 9, 2024
Other Matchups:
Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren (RBs, PIT)
The Steelers have relied heavily on their rushing attack to miracle their way into the playoffs, led primarily by Harris. He's been great on the ground, constantly grinding for extra yards. He's had 19-plus carries each of their past three games with over 300 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns in that span. He's the most reliable player on their team for fantasy this week, landing at RB10.
Najee Harris has been on fire down the stretch pic.twitter.com/3NvntqPswK
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 6, 2024
Warren would typically be more of an afterthought as an ancillary piece, but the one area he consistently thrives is in the passing attack. During the regular season, he had a 16% target share while playing 87% of the long-distance down snaps and 44% of the two-minute drill snaps. Given the negative game script, Warren could see better utilization, especially if things get out of hand.
George Pickens & Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
These two have both flashed at different times throughout the year, but consistency remains a problem. Neither player ever put together more than two or three productive weeks in a row. After ending his touchdown drought in Week 4, Johnson has hauled in five scores on the year, including four in their past six contests. Pickens on the other hand went nuclear for two straight weeks before failing to catch a pass in the season finale. It's highly unlikely both succeed against the Bills, even with CB Rasul Douglas questionable to play. So while predicting the correct one could be rewarding, there's also an outcome where they both flop. Neither earns a spot in the top 15.
James Cook (RB, BUF)
The roller coaster ride for Cook managers has been eventful. After scorching the earth against Dallas, he's fallen hard with fewer than 60 total scrimmage yards each of the past two weeks. His rushing attempts have steadily declined since that outing, too, with just 13 last week. Part of that is Allen's willingness to tote the rock. The other part is the involvement of Leonard Fournette, or "playoff Lenny" as he's become. Buffalo should be up big with a chance to lean on their rushing attack, but it's tough to envision them handing him the ball over 20 times. Furthermore, his touchdown upside is always capped with Allen and Fournette taking away opportunities at the goal line. Cook is still in a great spot and should have a decent outing, but he's just outside the top 10 this week.
Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF)
Shakir also joined in on the action last week with six grabs for 105 yards. He had a nice stretch earlier in the season when Knox was on injured reserve because they ran more three wide receiver sets. With Davis on track to miss this week, he's worth a shot in the WR15-20 range as a wideout with a higher ceiling.
UPDATE: Davis has been ruled out as expected.
#Bills WR Gabe Davis has been ruled out with his PCL sprain, a big loss for Buffalo. S Taylor Rapp, who made the game's biggest play last week, also ruled out.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 12, 2024
Notable Injuries
Gabe Davis (knee) - OUT
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