Our starting pitching rankings will be split into two parts. Today's edition will examine only the top five tiers of starters, as determined by our staff's composite rankings (which differ a bit from my own evaluations where noted). Using the composite rankings to guide discussion helps to highlight personal preferences while also providing a more balanced view of the players' values. These rankings are for standard 5x5 leagues.

You should adjust these rankings to account for your league-- in shallower leagues or formats with daily transactions, upside pitchers are worth investing in since you can replace high-floor, low-ceiling players from the waiver wire. In deeper leagues or those with very infrequent waivers, high-floor pitchers are more important, as the wire will likely be barren and it'll be a challenge to effectively stream pitchers.

In weekly leagues, so long as they aren't too deep, it often makes sense to target a few elite pitchers to head your rotation and allow the two-start streamers to serve as depth; it makes little sense to carry high-floor pitchers whose value will often be outweighed by streamers. With these tips in mind, we move onto the players themselves.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Starting Pitcher

Tier One

And unsurprisingly, Clayton Kershaw occupies the first tier by himself. He'll be 28 on Opening Day, and over the last three years, he's sported a 1.92 ERA, 772 strikeouts (10.4 K/9) with a 0.886 ERA and 53 wins. In a word, WOW!

Tier Two

The second tier consists of Scherzer, Sale, Arietta, Greinke, Price, deGrom and Fernandez. I have both Arietta (even though my Orioles traded him away) and Fernandez ranked much higher than my peers. Even though the Cubs are going to manage Arietta's innings due to his enormous jump last year, his numbers are too much better than the others (aside from Fernandez) for me to rank him lower. Last year, Arietta posted a 1.77 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and a 22-6 record. The year before, he had a 2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. While he will strike out fewer batters than Sale or Scherzer, in year-long leagues many participants may fail to meet their inning limits.

My third-ranked pitcher is my favorite non-Oriole: Jose Fernandez. At age 20 (yes 20!), Fernandez posted a 2.19 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and a 0.979 ERA. Going into his last start of 2014 before the injury that ultimately required Tommy John Surgery, he had a 1.74 ERA, 12.5 K/9, and a 0.90 WHIP. Last year, while battling a biceps injury and not being too far removed from his surgery, he still posted 11 K/9, a 1.16 ERA, a 2.92 ERA and a 6-1 record.

Another year removed from Tommy John, the sky is the limit. If not for his innings limit, I would place him ahead of Arietta. Despite liking these two pitchers the best out of the second tier, when factoring in risk with upside, I view all the pitchers in the second tier as somewhat similar in value. I would choose whoever falls to me, rather than reaching . But because Fernandez is currently the eighth pitcher coming off the board, I expect him to be the best value.

Tier Three

In the third tier, the two pitchers I like significantly more than my peers are Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg. While second half performance is usually a worse predictor of the future than full season performance, there is a reason to view Harvey's and Strasburg's second halves differently. In Harvey's case, he was further removed from his recent Tommy John surgery, posting a 2.19 ERA, 0.923 ERA, and 9.1 K/9.

In the year before his injury, he posted a 2.27 ERA with a 0.931 ERA and 9.6 K/9. As those impressive stat lines are remarkably similar, that might be who he is. Strasburg is a player who I admittedly have overrated over the years, so take this one with a grain of salt. However, here is why I am bullish. After battling a lingering injury to start the year, in the second half he posted a 1.90 ERA, a 0.754 ERA, and 12.5 K/9. Yikes! While Strasburg has always performed below my expectations, he still has a nice floor given his career 10.4 K/9 and 1.09 ERA to go with a 3.09 ERA.

Currently being drafted as 12th and 13th pitchers, these two can be considered value plays. On the flip side in this tier, Keuchel appears to be drafted way too highly for me. Yes, he won the Cy Young. However, this is 5x5. He has never struck out a batter per inning or had a ERA under one. As such, I feel my peers are ranking him too highly due to his real world performance overshadowing his fantasy performance. Why not wait a bit longer and get a similar fantasy player in Sonny Gray for cheaper?

Tier Four

In the fourth tier, the biggest error to me is ranking Darvish too highly. Even if nothing goes wrong, he isn't expected back until mid-May or June. On top of that, he likely will experience the initial struggles that others returning from Tommy John have. On the other side of the equation, I have Danny Salazar pegged higher than my peers. Last year, he had a 9.5 K/9 rate, a 1.13 ERA and a 3.45 ERA. In his career, he has a 9.9 K/9 ratio. In front of an improved Indians' defense, and at 26 years of age, he has room for further improvement.

After this fourth tier, our rankings start to diverge more noticeably. It is probably not a coincidence that this is the point where I determine that non-upside plays are too close to what is available on the waiver wire. I'd rather gamble on someone who can outperform the waiver wire by a decent margin than use a relatively high draft pick to get the same value.

Tier Five

Because of that calculus, I rank Zimmerman and Quintana lower than my peers, and McCullers higher. Zimmerman's line last year consisted of a 3.66 ERA, 1.205 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and a 13-10 record in the NL East. Those aren't numbers to get too excited about, and now he will be facing much tougher AL lineups. While he had a good 2014, it stands out like an outlier from his consistent career numbers, which resemble his career averages of 3.32 ERA, 1.16 ERA and 7.4 K/9. Switching to the AL, and at age 30, I'd bet he performs close to a waiver wire streaming option in standard leagues.

Quintana likewise lacks upside. He's pitched four seasons, and by combining his best numbers from each category in any season we get a 1.22 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and a 3.32 ERA with nine wins and six losses. While that is well-rounded, it's hardly an impressive line given that it is his best work over four years. Lance McCullers, on the other hand, gets me excited. The guy wore Batman cleats in his debut; that shows charisma and the type of self-confidence that I want in my upside plays.

Even though he wore down as the season progressed, presumably due to a career high in innings pitched, he finished with a 3.22 ERA, 1.186 ERA, and 9.2 K/9. At the break, he boasted a 2.56 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and a 1.10 ERA. Based on his age (only 22 years old), his overall solid numbers, and his improved numbers when fresh, I like his breakout potential for 2016.

While that concludes today's analysis, check in tomorrow for my starting pitcher value picks and sleepers among those rated in the sixth tier and below. Starting pitching gems are often uncovered late in the draft, and tomorrow they will be identified.

Starting Pitcher Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (February)

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