Sonoma NASCAR Fantasy & Betting Preview – Toyota / Save Mart 350

July 12, 2025

Betting odds, favorites, long shots, fantasy picks, and more for the 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 NASCAR race at Sonoma Raceway. Can Shane van Gisbergen win again?

For the second race weekend in a row, the NASCAR Cup Series cars will be making left and right turns, as the series returns to California and Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 on Sunday afternoon.

This will be the 20th race of the season and the fourth road course event of the year. Christopher Bell won at Circuit of the Americas back in March and then over the past month we have Shane van Gisbergen take the victories at both Mexico City and the Chicago Street Course.

SVG has never made a Cup Series start at Sonoma Raceway, but will that even matter? Right now, he's the king of the road courses in NASCAR, and Trackhouse Racing has ran well here at Sonoma in the Next Gen era with Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez.

Pre-Race Loop Data Box Score for Sonoma

Click here to download the PDF of the pre-race loop data box score.

The Favorites Heading Into the Race Weekend

Shane van Gisbergen (+130 to win) - Can anyone beat Shane van Gisbergen? At the road courses this season, he has collected two wins and a sixth-place finish with a total of 109 laps led. That may not seem like a ton at first glance, but when you consider that there have only been 270 laps ran on road courses this season, that equals out to SVG being in the lead for 40.4% of the total laps. There's no reason why the No. 88 Chevrolet shouldn't be a contender in Wine Country this weekend.

Kyle Larson (+550 to win) - It's actually kind of crazy that Kyle Larson only has two wins at Sonoma when you consider the fact that he has won the pole in five of the last seven races at this track. The No. 5 Chevrolet won this race last season and even though Larson hasn't had a finish better than 13th at a road course this year, that should easily change this weekend in his home state.

Michael McDowell (+1100 to win) - Could this be redemption weekend for Michael McDowell? Before the mechanical issues, the No. 71 Chevrolet looked to be the only car capable of keeping up (or beating) SVG's No. 88 Chevrolet at Chicago last weekend, and now we're at a track that McDowell has been great at recently; in addition to his runner-up finish last year, McDowell has posted finishes of seventh and third in his other two Sonoma starts in the Next Gen era.

Underdogs to Keep an Eye On

Chris Buescher (+1400 to win) - Chris Buescher is Mr. Consistent on road courses, and here at Sonoma he has been phenomenal. In the Next Gen era, Buescher has posted finishes of second, fourth, and third at this track, and he led 32 laps en route to his podium finsh here last season. Currently, Buescher is close to the bubble when it comes to the Playoffs. A win on Sunday would guarantee his spot in the postseason.

Chase Elliott (+1400 to win) - It may not be completely accurate to call Chase Elliott an underdog at a road course, but his odds are long enough that he's a step below a "favorite." Chase is a constant top five threat at Sonoma, finishing inside that range in four of the last six races here. He also has seven top-five finishes in the last 13 road course races overall. This could be the weekend Elliott finally gets into victory lane at a road course in the Next Gen car.

Kyle Busch (+2200 to win) - Believe it or not, Kyle Busch has been one of the best on the road courses this season (according to the True Performance Rankings at Win The Race). Here at Sonoma specifically, Rowdy is one of just two current drivers with multiple wins at this track (the other being Kyle Larson) and Busch has finished inside the top five in five of his last seven starts here--including a second-place effort in 2023, his first season with Richard Childress Racing.

Betting Odds to Win the Sonoma Toyota/Save Mart 350

As of Thursday afternoon, DraftKings Sportsbook had the following odds listed to win this weekend's race at Sonoma Raceway.

More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis