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Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson? Who should I draft for 2023 fantasy football drafts? Nick analyzes NFL players with similar values, and tells you who to pick.
If we learned anything from fantasy football in 2022, it's that having a high-tier quarterback is imperative to weekly success. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are currently being drafted as the QB4 and QB5 after finishing as the QB6 and QB4 last season, respectively, in fantasy points per game (FPPG).
Their average draft positions (ADPs) are comparable, although Jackson is generally selected (at least) a few picks earlier. Since both quarterbacks are selected in a similar range, there isn't a major team-building advantage in selecting one over the other. However, in the third and fourth rounds, you would rather select the quarterback with a better path to being the overall QB1.
In this article, we will unpack the nuances of quarterback performance and how one of these players is more likely to lead your team to a fantasy championship.
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The Case For Joe Burrow
The Cincinnati Bengals franchise quarterback took a leap last year, attempting 606 passes for 4,475 yards and 35 touchdowns, firmly placing him top 5 in each category.
Joe Cool was able to finish as the overall QB4 despite star wideout Ja'Marr Chase missing four games due to a hip injury. Tee Higgins was also in and out of the lineup for a few weeks. Running back Joe Mixon was inefficient on the ground in 2022 and is now another year over the age apex. The Bengals return with all three of their top WRs, leaving a clear path to a pass-heavy attack once again in 2023.
Being one of the NFL's leading passers is great, but the Konami code quarterbacks are those who "break fantasy." Not known as a dynamic runner, Burrow surprisingly finished eighth in designed runs, fifth in rush touchdowns, and seventh in rush attempts. Although this only led to 257 rushing yards, he was clearly involved on the ground, nearly doubling his production from each of the previous seasons.
However, Burrow suffered a calf strain to begin training camp. Although head coach Zac Taylor recently commented on how good he looks, it's easy to see how this offense calls fewer designed runs for their star quarterback and instead establishes Mixon and company earlier in games.
As long as Chase, Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are healthy, Burrow should finish as a solid top-6 fantasy quarterback. Since the former LSU Tiger lacks the rushing explosiveness to be a true Konami code quarterback, we would need to see an even greater uptick in the overall pace of play and passing attempts for him to finish as the overall QB1. Burrow's median projection is right around a QB4/5 finish, and likely where we'll find him when the season ends.
The Case For Lamar Jackson
The Baltimore Ravens were able to secure the former MVP to a five-year extension this offseason, making him the (now) second highest-paid quarterback per year. Rightfully so, Lamar Jackson is arguably the greatest rushing quarterback the NFL has ever seen and is the only one to eclipse 1,000 yards in a single season more than once. Due to injury concerns and looming contract negotiations, his 2022 campaign was cut short. However, he was once again on pace to exceed the 1,000-yard mark over a 17-game season.
The 2023 Ravens brought in Todd Monken as their new offensive coordinator, who should transition their offense from one of the most run-heavy attacks to a more balanced approach. As exciting as Jackson can be with the ball, his receiver room was devoid of talent until now. Baltimore aggressively signed Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted Zay Flowers while returning a healthy Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews. A vastly more talented group than in years past.
Jackson, too, has injury concerns as he's only played 12 games each of the last two seasons. But the 26-year-old has shown no signs of slowing in the run game while he should improve in passing attempts and yardage. Even if the rushing yards take a hit, a (theoretically) massive bump in passing yardage and scoring would place the former MVP in the elite QB tier and give him a chance to finish as the overall QB1 for a second time.
Fantasy Football Verdict
While both quarterbacks are a solid addition to your fantasy team, the Ravens signal caller is a true Konami code quarterback with an impossibly high ceiling in Monken's new offense. He should arguably be drafted closer to the "Big 3" and has the ability to return value in the middle of the third round.
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