X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Running Back Fantasy Football Fallers - Yardage Regression Candidates

Kenneth Walker III - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Rob Lorge analyzes which NFL running backs could finish with fewer scrimmage yards in 2023 compared to 2022. Identifying these players will help fantasy managers avoid overdrafting.

Oftentimes, fantasy football managers weigh a player's fantasy value based on their performance from the previous season. For the most part, this is the correct strategy, as history tends to repeat itself. However, there are certain players whose most recent season is not the best representation of what they will offer in the upcoming season.

There is no shortage of running back candidates who are likely to have fewer yards in the upcoming 2023 season. Last season, Tyler Allgeier, Devin Singletary, D'Onta Foreman, and Leonard Fournette all had stretches where they operated as their team’s workhorse running back. However, due to various offseason circumstances, these players are all obvious choices for regression in terms of both their yardage and their number of touches.

In this article, we’ll shift our focus to a few less obvious players who are also poised for regression in 2023. If you're looking to purchase one of our fantasy football Premium Packages, be sure to use the discount code BOOM for 10% off.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

 

Risers and Fallers - Regression Candidates Series

Here, you can find the rest of the Positive and Negative Regression Candidates series:

 

Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks

Kenneth Walker had an amazing rookie season that prompted a second-place finish in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. Although he began the season as a backup to Rashaad Penny, Walker proved himself more than capable of carrying the load after Penny suffered a broken leg in Week 5, sidelining him for the rest of the season.

Walker finished his inaugural season with 255 total touches for 1,215 scrimmage yards. 27 of those touches came via receptions, which resulted in 165 receiving yards. However, fantasy managers should be prepared for a decline in production in his second season.

In Weeks 1–5, Walker averaged 5.8 carries per game, which accounted for just 25.8% of the team’s total attempts. He averaged 36.5 yards per game and was the clear No. 2 back behind Penny. Additionally, he had an average of 1.8 targets, 1.5 receptions, and 3.5 receiving yards per game. But once Penny went down, everything changed for Walker.

He stepped into a workhorse role that few other running backs in the NFL could rival. He finished the season with 20.2 carries per game, which was the third-highest in the league. The Seahawks gave him 74.0% of their team’s carries, which was also the third-highest percentage in the NFL. However, fantasy managers shouldn't expect this level of usage to carry over to 2023, due to the Seahawks selecting Zach Charbonnet in the 2023 draft.

Make no mistake, Walker will still be the lead back for the Seahawks. However, it’s unlikely that his production will look the same as it did in Weeks 6–18 when he averaged 101.9 scrimmage yards per game.

In his last two seasons at UCLA, Charbonnet had 398 rushing attempts, finishing with 2,496 rushing yards and an impressive 6.2 yards per carry average. It’s a virtual guarantee that he’s going to get more carries than the combination of DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer.

The one area where Charbonnet is sure to hurt Walker is in the passing game. In his final two collegiate seasons, Charbonnet hauled in 61 receptions on 69 targets for 518 yards. His 14.5% target share during his senior season was in the 92nd percentile for running backs. On the other hand, Walker has accumulated 60 targets, 45 receptions, and 294 yards in his collegiate (three seasons) and NFL career combined.

There’s a good chance that Charbonnet operates as the team’s third-down and pass-catching back in addition to being a change-of-pace option behind Walker. The fact that Charbonnet is significantly better than Homer and Dallas means fantasy managers should expect Walker’s overall touches and yards to decrease this season. All of that makes Walker a prime regression candidate for the upcoming season.

 

Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., Miami Dolphins

Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has embraced the running back by committee approach, adopting this philosophy from his time with the San Francisco 49ers. McDaniel has taken the committee model to the extreme in his first two seasons in Miami and it was successful in the first go around. He signed Raheem Mostert prior to the 2022 season and ended up trading for Jeff Wilson Jr. after Chase Edmonds wildly disappointed.

Wilson, between his time in San Francisco and Miami, and Mostert combined for 410 total touches and 2,138 scrimmage yards last season. All in all, pretty successful seasons for both players and a lot of bang for Miami’s buck.

Following Wilson's trade to Miami, the team relied heavily on him and Mostert, splitting the workload right down the middle. They combined for an average of 20.5 carries per game, which accounted for 92.2% of the team’s rushing attempts. Together, they averaged 104 rushing yards per game.

The duo was limited in the passing game with an average of 6.0 targets, 3.5 receptions, and 25 receiving yards per contest. If we consider only their time together in Miami, they were on pace for 411 touches and 2,190 scrimmage yards over 17 games.

The problem comes from the fact that the Dolphins' two-way committee could very well turn into a three-way committee. The team selected De'Von Achane in the third round of the NFL Draft out of Texas A&M, where he was extremely effective. Between the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Achane had 326 carries for 1,985 yards, which is a 6.1 yards per carry average. Additionally, he chipped in 60 receptions on 73 targets for 457 receiving yards. He finished his final collegiate season with a 14.7% target share, which placed him in the 93rd percentile, according to PlayerProfiler.

His college dominator rating of 40.0% also placed him in the 90th percentile. This is a really good football player but he has faced some concerns about his size as he weighed in at just 188 pounds at the combine. However, it’s important to remember that he ran track in College Station, which limited his ability to add mass prior to the combine. Recent rumors suggest that Achane has already increased his weight to 192 pounds.

McDaniel will have a plan for the speedy back, who ran a 4.32 40-yard dash at the combine. Achane very well could become the team’s top pass-catching option out of the backfield. Every touch that the rookie earns is going to take away from Mostert and Wilson. It’s not out of the question that Achane ends up leading this three-way committee by season’s end, which could make one of these veteran backs an afterthought.

 

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones had a bit of a “turn back the clock” season in 2022. He had an impressive year, recording 212 carries. This was his highest total since 2019, accumulating 1,121 rushing yards. It marked a career-high for him, which is fairly rare considering that he turned 28 years old last December.

Additionally, he achieved career highs in targets and receptions while logging the most receiving yards since 2019. However, with Jones entering his seventh season in the NFL and the departure of Aaron Rodgers from the Packers, it’s plenty fair to expect him to experience some regression.

During Rodgers’ tenure with the Packers, he targeted running backs on 20% of his passes, which is above the league average. If the new quarterback, Jordan Love, is more willing to run or take more deep shots downfield, it could result in a decrease in the running back target share that has been so favorable for Jones. This would have a negative impact on Jones as AJ Dillon is not utilized as frequently in the passing game.

It’s also possible that head coach Matt LaFleur chooses to implement a more run-heavy approach to take the pressure off his first-time starting quarterback. If this plan indeed comes to pass, it's possible the Packers may rely more on AJ Dillon, who is younger and much bigger than Jones, to handle a more run-centric offensive approach.

The 2022 Packers offense mostly finished as a league-average unit across the board last season. Outside of the running backs, the Packers’ skill players are extremely young. Wide receivers Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, both entering their second seasons, faced injury setbacks last year, which limited their playing time.

Additionally, rookies Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft are set to play significant roles. Considering the team's youth and inexperience, expecting the offense to perform at a league-average level is quite optimistic.

There are going to be a lot of growing pains with this offense and some bad weeks in the box score. Jones' efficiency metrics are going to decrease along with the offense's effectiveness.

 

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

Including Derrick Henry on this list of potential regression candidates is not a decision that I take very lightly. However, there are reasons that suggest possible significant regression is coming for the bruising back. Per the table below, fantasy managers can clearly see a decline in Henry's play over the last two seasons.

Year YPC Broken Tackle Rate YAC/Attempt
Breakaway Run Rate
2018-2020 5.16 10.8% 3.01 4.91%
2021-2022 4.35 7.9% 2.26 4.04%

Make no mistake, that doesn’t mean Henry isn’t still a very good or even elite player. It just means that he had reached a near god-like level in terms of running the football and that he is starting to slow down a bit. He’s begun to show his own mortality over the last two seasons but this shouldn’t come as a surprise as it happens to every athlete. It’s why they say Father Time is undefeated and Henry is 29 years old.

Typically, once a running back's efficiency numbers start to slip, they tend to follow a downward trajectory. The table above shows a fairly sizable decrease in some categories that are sure to start affecting Henry's bottom line. Given the current state of the Titans' offensive line, Henry's decline could continue. PFF ranked the Titans’ offensive line as the absolute worst unit in all of football last season. In their yearly write-up, PFF stated:

“Tennessee’s line ranks dead last in PFF pass-blocking efficiency over the season (81.3), surrendering 172 pressures on 531 pass-blocking snaps. The Titans finished third worst in the league at generating yards before contact in the run game, averaging just 1.0 yards on the year.”

This season, the team will have three new starters on the offensive line, including rookie Peter Skoronski. The other two starters are veterans Andre Dillard and Daniel Brunskill, who were acquired through free agency. Neither player has recorded a season with a PFF run-blocking grade above 66. Collectively, they have a combined total of seven seasons of experience.

Pro Football Network and The Game Day both rank the Titans' offensive line 32nd while FTN Fantasy has them ranked 27th. This is an awful unit that is not going to give Henry much help at all.

The Titans' starting receivers are Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Philips, and Chigoziem Okonkwo. Those four players have combined for just 228 targets, 139 receptions, and 1,878 yards for their entire careers. None of them have ever surpassed 40 receptions or 500 yards in a season. Granted they're all very young players, it makes the last few stats somewhat unfair. But where is your focus going to be if you're a defensive coordinator?

There’s certainly the argument that the focus has always been on Henry and you’d be correct. However, in previous seasons, they could threaten to pass with the likes of Corey Davis and A.J. Brown. Well, those players are gone and Henry is going to be looking at an awful lot of stacked boxes while running behind a terrible offensive line. It could be a long season in Tennessee.

As a reminder, if you're looking to purchase any of our premium packages for the upcoming fantasy football season, be sure to use the promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% off of your purchase.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jaylen Johnson

Chargers Place Jaylen Johnson on PUP List
Dereck Lively II

Undergoes Right-Foot Surgery Tuesday
Kendrick Bourne

Kayshon Boutte Fighting for Final Spots
Isaiah Collier

Logs a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Monday
DeMario Douglas

Kyle Williams "Locks" for Receiving Corps
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Finalizing Massive Extension
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Colts Expected to Ease Anthony Richardson Sr. Back in
Devin Carter

Posts 17 Points Versus Suns
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 17 Points in Summer League Loss
Terry McLaurin

Undecided on Whether he Will Report to Training Camp
Colston Loveland

Says his Shoulder is 100 Percent
Harrison Ingram

has Impressive Outing Against Jazz
Sam Williams

has Potential to be Elite Edge Rusher
Shemar Stewart

Considering Going Back to College?
Jahmyr Gibbs

Lions Want Jahmyr Gibbs "More Involved" in Passing Game
Jordan Addison

Could be Facing Three-Game Suspension
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Kyle Filipowski

Records 35-Point Double-Double Against Spurs
Kel'el Ware

Dominates Against Celtics
Kon Knueppel

Gets Going Monday
Matas Buzelis

Puts Up 28 Points in Win Over Pacers
Reed Sheppard

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
Paul George

Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Najee Harris

Likely to Miss Time at Start of Training Camp
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Collin Morikawa

Misses The Cut at Genesis Scottish Open
Hideki Matsuyama

Finishes Tied For 13th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooks Koepka

Finishes Tied For 32nd at LIV Andalucia
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For 34th at Genesis Scottish Open
Jason Day

Misses The Cut at John Deere Classic
Ludvig Aberg

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Cam Taylor-Britt

has Benefited From Addition of Al Golden
Rome Odunze

Could Take Off in Year 2
RJ Harvey

to Get "Significant" Work in Broncos' Passing Game
Jackson Powers-Johnson

More Comfortable Heading into Year 2
Luke McCaffrey

In Line for Larger Role?
Braelon Allen

Jets Viewing Braelon Allen as Long-Term Starter?
Joel Embiid

Participating in Partial Basketball Activities
Victor Wembanyama

Officially Cleared to Return After Blood-Clot Recovery
Mike Williams

Heading to PUP List
Garrett Wilson

Lands Historic Deal
Colston Loveland

Shoulder "Good" After Surgery
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Kel'el Ware

Collects 21 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Cam Spencer

Contract Being Restructured
Drew Timme

Scores 30 Points in Summer League Loss to Wizards
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Alexandre Sarr

Logs Impressive Outing in Summer League Action on Sunday
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Kyle Filipowski

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss to Warriors
Cody Williams

Collects 22 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF