RADIO
Joe Idone's @TourPicks Round 2 Matchup Picks for the 2024 PLAYERS Championship.
My first day in the media center is now under my belt and I am ready to go for what appears to be another perfect weather day in Ponte Vedra Beach at TPC Sawgrass. I checked the full report this morning and it does appear that we will get a bit more of a breeze this afternoon, but nothing that should cause these players too much trouble.
The strokes gained data from Round 1 has all been logged, and there are several anomalies with players performing well in categories where they often struggle. Take Rory McIlroy, for example; he led the entire in strokes gained Approach, a statistic in which he doesn't rank in the top-150 players on Tour this season. He also ranked 135th in strokes gained Off The Tee. Welcome to THE PLAYERS, we see this every year. It is predictably unpredictable.
That said, when diving through the data and picking up a few tidbits here and there from following various players, I have found three head-to-head Round 3 matchups that I am playing.
Justin Thomas -110 vs. Collin Morikawa -110
The two hardest-working players on the range last night will kick things off in our first matchup today. Justin Thomas continues to struggle Off The Tee, as he lost nearly a full stroke OTT and ranked 118th in the field for Round 1. He is still fighting that low hook with his Driver that resulted in him landing in the hazard on both holes No. 9 & No. 10. He played those holes +3, which is really tough considering the field played them under par.
Morikawa was the last man on the range under the lights last night. His iron play has abandoned him and its begun to be regular problem. If he loses strokes on Approach again this week, that will make three of the past four weeks he is losing to the field in a category in which he was once considered the best in the world. Tough decision here, but I feel like Justin Thomas is closer to playing his best than Morikawa at the moment.
Pick: Thomas -110
Jason Day -102 vs. Si Woo Kim -122
I spent some time following this group on their back nine yesterday. I noticed a bubbling frustration while watching Si Woo Kim, who routinely gave his caddie "the look" after loose iron shots gave him troubling positions. Si Woo Kim always wears his heart on his sleeve so it wasn't unusual, but the former PLAYERS champion essentially held his round together with his putter, which ran hot.
Jason Day, on the other hand, was really solid from Tee To Green. He posted a bogey-free 67, which vaulted him into the top-six on the leaderboard after Round 1. I appreciate his consistency from a ball-striking standpoint, and I like his odds as a modest underdog in the head-to-head with him for Round 2.
Pick: Day -102
Erik van Rooyen +100 vs. Lucas Glover -120
I'm running this matchup back out again for Round 2 as it ended up being an easy winner in the first round. Erik van Rooyen started very hot out of the gates before his round stalled a bit toward the end. You can really sense his confidence continuing to build with a belief that not only does he belong in these premier events, but he can compete!
Again, this is more of a player against Lucas Glover. He ranks outside the top 100 after Round 1 in strokes gained T2G, OTT, and ARG. He only managed to hit four total fairways in the first round, which is a recipe for disaster around TPC Sawgrass given the impact of the grown-up rough we have in play this year. EVR it is!
Pick: van Rooyen +100
Live Add: Wyndham Clark +1400 (Hard Rock)
Again, criminally underrated and I don't understand why. He gets to play the softer golf course today being in the morning wave and I fully expect him to be able to get to -10 or better. Someone explain to me why Xander Schauffele is +575 and Wyndham Clark is +1400...I'll wait.
That's the card for Friday! Let's have a day, RotoBaller family!
