RADIO
Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season. Adam Koffler identifies players at QB, RB, WR, and TE whose trade value for fantasy football is rising or falling.
Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season is officially in the books. Just like in Weeks 1, 2, and 3, overreactions will undoubtedly be made, but there's also a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 5 and beyond. In years past, we'd be a quarter of the way through the season, but with 17 regular season games this year, we're just about 23.5% of the way through.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrow may be pointing up, and players whose arrow may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 5 of the NFL season.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Fantasy Football Risers
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo was ready to rule himself out for multiple weeks after Week 4, in which he sustained a calf injury. Apparently, he hasn't been ruled out quite yet, however, it'd be a surprise to see the 49ers go back to him after getting a glimpse of Trey Lance. Lance only completed 50% of his passes, but threw for 157 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing seven times for 41 yards. If he gets the start in Week 5 against the Cardinals (a game that features an o/u of 50 points), one should reasonably expect Lance to put up back-end QB1 numbers as a result of his dual-threat ability.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
Justin Fields only attempted 17 passes in Week 4, but Mooney still ended with five catches for 125 yards. He accounted for 51% of the Bears' air yards and had a target share of 41.2% despite playing on a season-low 71% of the snaps. Mooney now has seven or more targets in three of four games played this season and looks to be Justin Fields' favorite target in the early going.
Jamison Crowder, New York Jets
In his first game of the season, Crowder played on 62% of the snaps and saw nine targets, good for a 26.5% target share. He sent Braxton Berrios (who played on 78% of the snaps in Week 3) into oblivion upon his return. With the Jets set to trail in a ton of games this season, look for quarterback Zach Wilson to lean heavily on his most-trusted slot receiver, that being Jamison Crowder.
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
Playing in a PPR league? Renfrow is WR23 through four weeks, and it's no fluke. In Week 4, he commanded a 25% target share and played on a season-high 67% of the snaps. He's caught at least five balls in each of his first four games and has become a go-to option for Derek Carr outside of Darren Waller. Renfrow has more receptions thus far than Chris Godwin, DK Metcalf, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyler Lockett, but who's keeping track?
Darrell Henderson Jr., Los Angeles Rams
A rib injury forced Henderson to miss Week 3, but he came back in Week 4 after missing just one game. And boy did he get a workload, out-touching Sony Michel 19-3, playing on 90% of the snaps. This was also prior to a short break before Week 5, in which the Rams play on Thursday night. Through three games, Henderson is playing on an average of 84% of the snaps and seeing an average of 18.3 opportunities (carries + targets) per game. He's getting RB1 utilization and should be viewed as such until Sean McVay decides to lighten his workload (which he shouldn't as long as Henderson remains productive).
Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles
Per PFF, Gainwell has the third-highest receiving grade through four weeks behind just Christian McCaffrey and Cordarrelle Patterson. Yes, you read that right, Cordarrelle Patterson, who has been fantastic in his own right. Miles Sanders' role has been decreasing on a week-to-week basis while Gainwell's has been increasing. In Week 4, he played on a season-high 39% of the snaps and got 11 opportunities, including eight targets. His 11 opportunities made up 52.4% of the RB opportunities, whereas Sanders was at a season-low 47.6%. In Week 1, Sanders got 62.5% of the RB opportunities, and that number has dropped in each of the following weeks. Gainwell has forced the Eagles' hand and has commanded his fair share of the work out of the backfield moving forward.
Other Risers: Kenny Golladay, Damien Williams (as a result of the David Montgomery injury), James Robinson, Leonard Fournette, Dalton Schultz, Van Jefferson
Fantasy Football Fallers
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Through four weeks, Aiyuk has seen a target on just 10% of his routes run. That's atrocious, especially considering he was being drafted as a top-25 wide receiver coming into the season. After playing on 86% of the snaps in Week 3 and garnering six targets, Aiyuk came back down to earth in Week 4, playing on just 67% of the snaps and seeing just three targets. Through four weeks, Deebo Samuel has 42 targets to Aiyuk's 11. It's very clear who the WR1 in San Francisco is this season.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
For all intents and purposes, Godwin has been a disappointment relative to his ADP since Week 1 this season. In his first game, he saw 14 targets from Tom Brady. But since that shootout against the Cowboys, Godwin is averaging just 5.7 targets per game for just a 12.9% target share. Meanwhile, Mike Evans has a 23.5% target share in Weeks 2 - 4. This receiving corps is going to be tough to project on a weekly basis, but Godwin sure does seem to be trending down.
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
After getting a season-high 19 opportunities in Week 3, Gaskin was relegated to what looked like a reserve role in Week 4, getting just two carries on 23% of the snaps. Meanwhile, Malcolm Brown got eight carries and one target on 67% of the snaps. Even Salvon Ahmed got more opportunities (five) than Gaskin in Week 4. This usage for a guy that was drafted around the fifth or sixth round in most fantasy leagues this season is highly worrisome.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
See the Kenneth Gainwell write-up in the Risers section above
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, JuJu Smith-Schuster played on 95% of the snaps and saw eight targets in Week 4 with Chase Claypool on the sidelines, but he secured just two catches for 11 yards. 12 targets the last two weeks have turned into just 36 total yards. He's fourth in the pecking order for work behind Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris, and Claypool. I'm out on Smith-Schuster.
Other Fallers: Chris Carson, Christian Kirk, Terrace Marshall Jr., Kenyan Drake, Bryan Edwards
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