X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Power Hitting Risers & Fallers for Week 8 - Buy or Sell?

Home run risers and fallers for Week 8 of fantasy baseball. Nate Green evaluates power increases or decreases, and players who could be buy or sell candidates.

Welcome to this week's Power Hitting Risers & Fallers. All stats are full season through Monday, May 20th (unless otherwise noted). It's that time of year when in-season trends become apparent and full-season numbers may not tell the best story. (They may be most accurate, but they may not tell the best story.) Fortunately, the Statcast Search feature allows a specific player in a specific time range to be studied, with countless ways to further parse the numbers.

Your weekly reminders: When a Statcast ranking like exit velocity is mentioned, a minimum of 50 batted balls is needed to rank in Statcast figures (this is up from 25 last week); 299 players  have that many. An expected stat, like xSLG, is from the pool of players with 100 plate appearances, which is currently 257 of them. EVAB (pronounced ee-vab or ev-ab) is simply exit velocity on "air balls" - meaning fly balls and line drives, as shown on Statcast. Isolated power -- ISO -- is slugging percentage minus batting average, and so xISO is xSLG minus xBA.

Who's rising and falling this week? Read on to find out.

 

Power Risers

Josh Bell (1B, PIT)

It's time we looked at Josh Bell in this column. The number that impresses most immediately: 95.8 mph. Only Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo have hit the ball harder in 2019. A 98.4 EVAB is exceeded by only seven players. He's sixth with a 12.8% barrel/PA rate. Bell is crushing the ball and deserves his 14 home runs.

Forget 2018, Bell's Statcast numbers destroy the 2017 version that hit 26 homers. That version of Bell hit the ball 87.7 mph at 8.6 degrees (he's at 10.6 degrees this year), with a 92.2 EVAB and 4.7% barrel rate. In 2017, Bell's contact produced an expected slugging rate of .441. This year? Try .687, just 10 points below Bell's actual .697 slugging. The .687 xSLG ranks fifth, but last year J.D. Martinez led all full-time players at a .621 xSLG.

You'd expect, then, that Bell's power would come down (as well as that of the four players ahead of him -- Cody Bellinger, Gary Sanchez, Anthony Rendon and Christian Yelich). And it probably will. But this is 2019, and it's not actually clear that league-wide bombs will decrease. Martinez did manage a .683 xSLG in 2017, and this could just be another one of those years.

Bell is one of 10 players who already has 14 home runs, with a stronger Statcast base than several of them. He could well be top five at season's end.

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B, TOR)

Guerrero offered us a small sample lesson these past two weeks. After no home runs through 53 plate appearances, he now has four in just 77 PA. His 1.7 degree launch angle through May 13 has tripled to 5.1 degrees on the year. His strikeout rate has tumbled from 22.6% last week to 16.9% while holding his walk rate steady. Panic was not recommended last week, and now there's nothing to even conceive of panicking about.

Well, there could be if you really wanted to. Five degrees is still less than half the league average of 11. And...and well, there isn't much else really. Maybe a .505 xSLG sounds disappointing, but it's better than his .441 SLG right now, and every other 20-year-old in baseball right now would kill to slug .500 in the Major Leagues. (Except perhaps Juan Soto, 21 in October, and Fernando Tatis Jr.)

Guerrero's samples are still small, but they are getting bigger. He's already justified the hype, and the next step is to aim for the ceiling.

 

Austin Riley (3B, ATL)

Unlike Guerrero, Riley has gotten off to an ultra-hot start, with three home runs already in just his first 23 plate appearances. They've all been crushed, at launch angles of 27 or 28 degrees and exit velocities of 109.1, 104.4, and 107.7 mph. His fourth barrel, a 107.1 mph shot hit at 21 degrees, was initially ruled a home run before being overturned into a double.

Obviously, if Riley keeps hitting like that, he'll have no problem piling up the homers. But no one hits to a .944 xSLG over a full season. One thing Riley can do is keep lifting the ball at a 14.5 degree average, which would help keep home runs coming, albeit not every 7.7 plate appearances.

Riley has also been very aggressive in his 23 plate appearances, with a single walk to balance against seven strikeouts. He has swung and missed at 26.3% of the pitches he has seen, whereas only two qualified hitters are above 20% in that figure. If Riley doesn't get the swing-and-miss under control, pitchers will eventually take advantage of his aggressiveness. While players like Franmil Reyes and Javier Baez succeed while being very aggressive, none of them whiff at a full quarter of pitches that they see.

Riley won't keep killing the ball at his 23-PA rate because no one does, but if he responds by becoming more selective, he'll ultimately be fine. His 2019 value may already be at its apex, however.

 

Freddie Freeman (1B, ATL)

Freeman has only crossed the 30-home run threshold once, with 34 in 2016. While he remained one of the game's premium hitters due to sheer production in other areas, he went long 28 times in 2017 and 23 times last year. Home run-hitting Freeman appears to be back, however, with 11 through 47 games. Four straight contests with a bomb from May 16-19 have helped him reach this pace.

Those four Freeman home runs aren't as pure as Riley's, including a 99.4 mph, 31 degree shot off of Josh Hader. Yes, that Josh Hader; any home run is impressive off him. Freeman also had home runs at 32 and 35 degrees during the run, which works at 107.7 and 105.6 mph. He's still crushing the ball.

That applies over the course of the full season, so it's not just a four-day hot streak. Ending 11.9% of his plate appearances with a barrel to rank 10th has gotten Freeman to a .618 expected slugging, which ranks 11th. With 11 home runs on 25 barrels, it's possible Freeman hits for only more power as the season continues. Even if he doesn't, it's good to see him set up for a second 30-homer campaign.

 

C.J. Cron (1B, MIN)

Like Bell and Freeman, Cron finds himself near the top of all barrelers, with an 11.8% rate that ranks just behind Freeman. Cron's launch angle has actually been in somewhat of a multi-year decline, peaking at 18 degrees in 2017, down to 15.2 degrees last year and at 13.6 degrees so far this year. He's making up for it with much better contact: a 90.7 mph average exit velocity, a 96.8 mph EVAB, compared to marks of 88.0 and 93.9 last year. And last season was a year Cron hit 30 bombs; with 12 in 43 games so far this season, he could again set a new career high.

Cron's other improvement over last season is a 21.3% strikeout rate; he was near 26% in both 2017 and 2018. That's marginal but useful; every 20 plate appearances he is buying himself another chance at going long.

The Angels, whom Cron played for through 2017, never found more than a part time role for him. Tampa Bay last year did, giving him a career high of 560 plate appearances. Locked into another nearly full-time gig for the 2019 Twins, Cron has become a legitimate power threat for standard leagues.

 

Power Fallers

Javier Baez (SS, CHC)

Is there any cause for concern about Baez getting shut out of the home run column since May 4? He had 11 before that, which already suggests that, no, he will be fine after a bit more time.

The thing is, Baez has become a doubles fiend in that time, with seven of them. Five of those seven have left his bat at over 100 mph. Looking at each of those doubles, you can easily imagine three or four home runs with just a few extra degrees of launch angle. One of them, hit 104.6 mph at 25 degrees, had to have been blown in by the wind.

Sometimes players just run into a couple weeks without going yard through no real fault of their own. Although Baez only has a .409 expected slugging rate during this home run drought, he's been close to hitting a few. There is nothing wrong with Javier Baez's bat right now that is worth being concerned over.

 

Alex Verdugo (OF, LAD)

Verdugo hasn't gone deep since April 24. He has been able to maintain a .300/.367/.414 slash line since then, demonstrating you can be a good hitter without home runs. Still, with four home runs in April, Verdugo's got a .323/.370/.532 overall line on the season.

Unfortunately, the zero-homer version of Verdugo is probably closer to the real Verdugo. That .532 SLG has been built on just a .455 xSLG. The .323 average is even less earned with a .279 xBA. Taken together, it adds up to an expected isolated slugging rate of .176, not .208.

That's not at all to say Verdugo is done going deep. He's worked to get the launch angle into the double figures, to 10.8 degrees after just 3.4 last season, which helps. He's done it while cutting way down on strikeouts, with just 14 in 135 plate appearances. There's power upside here, it's just that long droughts like his current one (during which his xSLG is only .401) aren't terribly surprising.

 

Jose Martinez (1B, STL)

Martinez raced off to a hot start this season, but not because of home runs. He only has three, all hit between April 19 and May 12, over 154 plate appearances. He had 17 last season in 590 PA. A .319 batting average has still represented some value, but why is Martinez barely on a double-digit home run pace?

Some of it has been bad luck. His Statcast expected slugging average is .566 but Martinez only has a .440 rate this season. A lot of that comes from his expected .339 batting average, but it's still a .227 xISO instead of his actual .121.

Still, Martinez has only barreled up eight baseballs, which has limited his power output, even if three bombs is still a bit low. He's more of a line drive hitter, with a 9.5 degree average launch angle this season that is within line with his career norms.

So it's not like we should expect Martinez to go on a massive power tear. However, he could match his 17 home runs from last year with a little rest-of-season luck.

 

Tommy Pham (OF, TB)

Pham is coming off consecutive seasons of 23 and 21 home runs, and he began 2019 with four bombs in his first 21 games. Since then, however, he only has one long ball in 22 games. He had a .394 OBP during those first 21 games, and his OBP is now also .394, so he's been productive, but whither the homers?

Since April 22, Pham has hit the ball at 92.5 mph on average but at just a 3.5 degree launch angle. That has somehow actually raised his full season launch angle to 2.1 degrees, while he's hit the ball no less hard lately than to start the year, with a 92.6 mph overall average velocity. Pham has never been a launch angle hitter, however, always between six and eight degrees prior to the 2019 campaign.

Given the low launch angle, Pham's four home runs in 21 games were never particularly sustainable. His overall pace of five home runs in 43 games is more reasonable. That would represent just 16 home runs over 137 games, which is how many he played in his 21-homer season last year. But given the lower launch angle, it would make sense. Pham needs a little more lift to get back to 20 home runs.

 

Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX)

Mazara has hit exactly 20 home runs in each of his three seasons. With six in 45 team games, Mazara is on pace to hit 22. That sort of makes him a riser, of a very lukewarm type, but he also has not gone deep since May 4.

And like Baez, whose most recent home run also dates back to Star Wars Day, Mazara has had a decent run during this drought, with an expected slugging rate of .421. His 89.8 EVAB in that time, however, makes the lack of home runs no surprise. (Baez has had a 97.8 EVAB in this stretch.) Both had two barrels as well.

Two weeks of Statcast can be parsed in multiple ways, but the important distinction between Mazara and Baez is their track record. Mazara has given no reason to think he's much more than 20-homer guy, since he has literally hit nothing but exactly 20 home runs in any big league season. While he's on a career-best .498 xSLG on the season so far, that's not going to get him to the breakout people have expected or hoped for.

 

Last Week's Risers

Player Last Week Update
George Springer Only two hits in four games, but one was bomb #17
Michael Brantley Kept reaching base but no additional home runs
Eugenio Suarez Tooled along at .316/.381/.526 with homer #13
Justin Turner No hits in 12 PA but still three walks
Nolan Arenado Slow .313 SLG, 0 HR week not surprising given it's a road trip away from Coors

 

Last Week's Fallers

Player Last Week Update
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. See above
David Dahl Still striking out too much (7/13 PA)
J.T. Realmuto Two homers backs up previous Statcast performance
Carlos Gonzalez Expected playing time dip hasn't happened (22 PA in five games), but he's not justifying it with .176/.318/.176 week
Kolten Wong He'll have plenty of .200/.294/.200 weeks like last week

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP