X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Potential Pitcher ADP Busts for 2017

With REAL BASEBALL set to start on Sunday (with three games no less!), most fantasy drafts have either occurred or are set to happen very soon. With that in mind, we’re set to put a wrap on our positional avoid series with the final chapter: pitchers.

Pitchers are as volatile as they come in fantasy baseball, as no pick truly feels safe. Sure, Clayton Kershaw will dominate on the mound, but will he make 30 starts? As such, many fantasy players wait on pitchers looking to draft aces well after they have taken a couple bats. This only makes their aces all the more risky and the whole cycle continues. Considering pitching makes up half up most league's categories, though, pitchers are of the utmost importance.

With that said, we’ll take a look at three pitchers (two starters and a reliever) who you would be best served to avoid when it comes to drafting in 2017. There is a world in which these three end up outperforming their current draft position, but it’s not as likely as some of the safer picks out there. Let’s meet these three.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Pitchers Who May Bust in 2017

Jake Arrieta (ninth in RotoBaller SP rankings; ADP of 32 in NFBC)

Two years ago Arrieta won many a fantasy player his/her league thanks to a season in which he won 22 games and posted an ERA of 1.77. There were some signs that he wouldn’t repeat in 2016, and those signs bore out in reality, as Arrieta slipped to 18 wins and a 3.10 ERA. Still very respectable numbers, but not dominant as he was in 2015.

This year, Arrieta is being drafted right around where you’d expect if he were to put up a carbon copy of 2016 - not among the truly top tier of pitchers but right behind them. If we simply take the “he’ll be somewhere between 2015 and 2016” tack, this would make Arrieta a strong pick. It is much more likely that 2016 was a step in a downward direction rather than a tough-luck season, though.

Arrieta has now seen his K/9 drop in each of the last three seasons, despite a league-wide trend in the opposite direction. Arrieta finished 2016 with a K/9 of 8.67, only a touch above league average (8.10 K/9). Now because of the high inning total he was able to reach once again, he tallied more total strikeouts (190) than all but 14 other pitchers in baseball, but if this trend continues in 2017, Arrieta could see that figure drop into the 175 range - not spectacular from someone being drafted so early.

There’s reason to believe his K/9 may continue to slip as well. His velocity dropped either 1.84 or 0.9 mph based on whether you go by Brooks Baseball or FanGraphs. Either way, his swinging strike rate dropped 0.6 percent in 2016 and that trend could well continue as Arrieta is now 31 years old.

Finally, there’s the issue of his spotty command, which was one of his biggest issues back in his Orioles days, when he couldn’t break into the league successfully. Arrieta nearly doubled his walk rate in 2016 (3.47 BB/9 up from 1.89), a sign that is as troubling as any. Top all that off with a second half (4.19 FIP) that was worse than his first half (3.03 FIP) and you have a pitcher I’ll be avoiding in 2017.

 

Drew Pomeranz (53rd in RotoBaller SP rankings; APD of 240 in NFBC)

Pomeranz is coming off his best year as a fantasy pitcher, which, as has been noted time and time again, is never a good time to draft a player. With Pomeranz, a good chunk of that expanded value came thanks to finally staying healthy enough to top 100 innings. That and escaping Coors Field helps too. After five seasons in the majors in which he never threw more than 96.2 innings at the major league level, Pomeranz tossed 170.2 innings in 2016 - a significant jump. Maybe it is not surprising then to hear that Pomeranz has already landed himself on the DL to start the 2017 season. He had been struggling all spring and was officially added to the DL with a forearm flexor strain, according to the Boston Globe.

It’s not just the injuries that scare me with Pomeranz. He is one of the most infuriating pitchers to own in fantasy. Here’s an abbreviated look at his 2016 game logs after he moved to Boston last season:

Road vs. LAA (decent matchup): 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K

Home vs. NYY (tough matchup): 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K

Road vs. CLE (tough matchup): 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K

Home vs. NYY (oh he did well last time in this situation): 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K

What the heck man? With Pomeranz being one of those play-him-based-on-the-matchup type pitchers in a ten-team mixed leagues, he makes it exceptionally difficult to do so with crazy all over the map results start after start. Add in his 4.59 ERA last year after being traded to Boston, and I’m staying away even at his relatively cheap price.

 

Craig Kimbrel (fourth in RotoBaller RP rankings; ADP of 88 in NFBC)

Of the three pitchers listed here, Kimbrel is my biggest avoid. That may seem like heresy to fantasy players who have been around for years, as Kimbrel has been a go-to name in the closer's business since 2010. That’s part of the reason, though. Kimbrel is “only” 28, but he’ll be 29 soon and he is showing signs of losing his elite skills.

The most straight-forward way of showing that: his ERA has climbed each of the past five years. Now that ERA started at a miniscule level, but here are his last five ERAs: 1.01, 1.21, 1.61, 2.58, 3.40. There are plenty more signs, though, many of them 2016 specific. In 2016, Kimbrel saw his ground ball rate plummet to 29.4 percent after five seasons over 40 percent. In turn, his fly ball rate jumped 48.0 percent, more than 11 percent higher than his career rate. As such, Kimbrel was a bit lucky not to see his home run rate jump through the roof. Partially tied to the change in batted balls allowed, Kimbrel allowed a career-high 33.0% hard hit ball rate - again a bad sign for allowing extra base hits. Kimbrel’s velocity was measured at mostly the same pace in 2016, but hitters were pulling him more often than ever, which suggests his perceived velocity may have slipped as he has aged.

It wasn’t just the contact that Kimbrel allowed in 2016, he also saw his already high walk rate jump into a scary realm. With a walk rate of 5.09 BB/9, Kimbrel finished behind only seven other pitchers with as many innings in 2016, in terms of walk rate. When you add in the fact that Kimbrel is also currently the most expensive pitcher in his tier (as a Tier 2 closer), he becomes one of the biggest avoids in the entire fantasy world for me. Instead, target Tyler Thornburg, who should be returning from a DL stint right around the time Kimbrel implodes and forces a change at the closer position.

 

More Potential Overvalued Draft Picks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF