RADIO
Middle infielders who are post-hype breakout candidates for 2018 fantasy baseball. Chris Doyle identifies 2B and SS sleepers who could pay off for fantasy owners.
Scouting prospects who will be future big-league stars is an inexact science. Middle infielders can be hard to project because defense often outweighs offense at those positions.
For every player who went on to become a superstar right away like Corey Seager or Francisco Lindor, there’s another one who never panned out like Dustin Ackley or Nick Franklin (sorry, Mariners fans). Others just need more time to adjust to life in the big leagues, breaking out well after the hype around them quiets. That often makes them a bargain for fantasy owners.
Here’s a look at some post-hype middle infielders to target in 2018.
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Don't Forget About These Former Top Prospects
Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks
Marte didn’t have the most hype when he signed with the Mariners as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2010, but he reached the big leagues fairly quickly at age 21 and cracked Baseball America’s midseason top-50 prospects list in 2015. He acclimated rather well in his first taste of The Show, hitting .283/.351/.402 in 247 plate appearances with eight steals. But his first full season in 2016 was not as kind (.259/.287/.323, 11 steals). Injuries didn’t help, but his poor plate approach did him no favors, either. His walk rate — which was a problem in the minors (5.5%) — plummeted to a horrendous 3.9% and he swung at 33.0% of the pitches he saw outside the strike zone.
Unsure about Marte’s future, Seattle shipped him to Arizona that offseason, where he spent nearly half of 2017 at Triple-A. What he did in the minors and during his 255 big-league plate appearances, however, leaves reasons to be optimistic about a breakout in 2018 for the Diamondbacks’ new starting second baseman.
While his average was only one point better than 2016 (.260), Marte unlocked a newfound approach at the plate, registering a walk rate of 11.4% and an on-base percentage of .345. His O-Swing% dropped to 31.6%, which is still above average but demonstrated improvement. Marte also set a career-high in home runs with five and added six more in his time at Triple-A (where he also hit .338/.391/.514, by the way). There are reasons for the power “surge” that go beyond a juiced baseball, too. His hard-contact rate jumped to 28.2%, far surpassing his previous best of 22.8% in 2015, and his average exit velocity of 86.6 mph was just under league average (86.7). For a player whose previous career EV was 84.2 mph, that’s nothing to sneeze at and suggests more power could be on the way.
On balls in the air, Marte’s average exit velocity was 88.8 mph, well above his previous career mark of 85.2. This isn’t to suggest that Marte will suddenly become a 25 home run player, but double digits isn’t out of the question. He also stands to get better on the basepaths. His maximum sprint speed of 28.9 feet per second was 29th out of 451 players measured by StatCast and ahead of names like Jarrod Dyson, Christian Yelich, and Brett Gardner. Strangely, however, he managed just three stolen bases on four attempts and seven on nine attempts in the minors. He previously stole 20 or more bases in three consecutive minor-league seasons, including 20 in only 68 games at Triple-A in 2015. Reaching that number in 2018 isn’t out of the question if Marte is more aggressive.
If his contact trends carry over into 2018, Marte could be a steal at the end of fantasy drafts. He’ll get far more playing time with Brandon Drury gone and could be a potential .280 hitter with 10 home runs and 20 steals. Even better: he’ll have eligibility at both second base and shortstop after a week or so into the regular season. At his current ADP of 339, he’s well worth a low-risk draft pick.
Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals
Wong was regarded as one of the top second base prospects in the game when he debuted in 2013, less than two years after being taken in the first round of the 2011 draft. His first full season in 2014 showed a glimpse into his potential (12 home runs, 20 steals), but his .249/.292/.388 slash line and 4.8 BB% left a lot to be desired. His power and speed production dipped in 2015 (11 home runs, 15 steals) in more plate appearances, but his overall offensive contributions improved (96 wRC+). The Cardinals gave him a five-year, $25 million contract extension in hopes he’d continue to get better, but he’s yet to fulfill his potential.
Wong’s wRC+ dropped to 86 in 2016 and he managed just four home runs and seven stolen bases. His poor performance resulted in a demotion in June, and he ended the year with a .240/.327/.355 slash line. He did improve his walk rate to 9.4%, however, which was a sign of better things to come in 2017. Although Wong began the year in a platoon with Jedd Gyorko and a triceps injury limited him to 108 games, he slashed .285/.376/.412 with a 107 wRC+ — all career highs. He also showed further improvement in his plate approach, as his walk rate rose to double digits (10.0%) for the first time and his O-Swing% decreased to 25.2%, a decrease of five percentage points from 2016 and over six points better than his career rate. He even managed a 90 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, well above his career 72 wRC+ prior to 2017.
Although Wong hit only five home runs, he slugged 27 doubles — one away from his career-best in 42 fewer games — and three triples and hit the ball harder than ever (28.2% hard-contact rate). His overall average exit velocity (85.2 mph) was nothing special; however, that number rose to 88.8 mph on balls in the air, suggesting a potential for more than five home runs is still there. At 5-foot-9 and 185 pounds, expecting him to be a 20 home run player is unreasonable, but a double-digit output wouldn’t come as a surprise.
Despite the improvements at the plate, however, there was again little production on the bases as he managed only eight steals. The encouraging news is Wong is focusing on stealing more bases in 2018. He had seven in 17 spring games, which bodes well heading into the regular season. Wong isn’t a burner, ranking 153rd in sprint speed (27.7 ft/s) last year, but he’s still faster than the league average (27.0). If he picks his spots well, he can provide value in a category that’s becoming more scarce for fantasy managers. At an ADP of 361, he’s another guy worth taking at the end of your draft with basically no risk involved.
Orlando Arcia, SS, Brewers
Shortstops who play plus defense, mash 52 extra-base hits, and swipe 25 bases are typically high on prospect lists. Arcia cracked the top 10 in many prospect rankings after putting up those numbers in 2015, and he had considerable hype around him when he was called up to the majors for the first time. Living up to that billing was a challenge for the shortstop, however, as he hit only .219/.273/.358/ in the first 55 games of his career.
At age 21, the Brewers perhaps promoted Arcia too soon, and he had difficulty adjusting to big-league pitchers. His 21.8 K% in 2016 was well above his minor-league rate (12.1%), and he whiffed on an ugly 14.5% of his swings. When he put the bat on the ball, it wasn’t quality contact; his Soft% (24.0%) was nearly identical to his Hard% (25.3%). Paired with a high groundball rate of 54.5%, it wasn’t a formula for success for Arcia in his first cup of big-league java.
His second season went far better. Arcia raised his slash line to .277/.324/.407 and had a surprising power output with 15 home runs. With 14 steals to add, he was a solid play for fantasy managers in deeper leagues even though he batted eighth in the Milwaukee lineup on most days. Arcia’s walk rate remained low (6.6%), but he dropped his strikeout rate to 18.2% and made more contact when he did swing. His SwStr% fell to 12.9% and his contact rate sat at 75.9% vs. 72.5% in his rookie campaign. Both numbers were still below league average, but they demonstrate he's starting to figure out big-league pitching.
When swinging at pitches in the zone, his contact rate rose significantly from a dreadful 77.6% to a slightly above average 85.7%, indicating pitchers weren’t overwhelming him the same way they did in 2016. He also hit for more hard contact (30.2%) as he was able to put the barrel on the ball 17 times (0.84% of pitches) against only three times (0.38%) his rookie year. How much power potential he has is up for debate, but double digits isn't out of the question since he still has room to grow and will have little pressure hitting low in the Brewers lineup.
Arcia is far from a finished product, however. His plate discipline metrics were still below league average, so he still has work to do despite steps in the right direction. Namely, he needs to stop swinging at so many pitches out of the zone. He chased 38.7% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2017, 11th-worst among all qualified hitters.
All that said, Arcia is still only 23 years old and has yet to reach his potential. Pitch selection will be crucial if he’s going to untap it all. For fantasy managers who wait to grab a shortstop, Arcia will provide good value if he continues his upward trend with the bat. Another 15/15 season or better isn't out of the question, especially if he can work his way higher in the batting order and get more opportunities to drive in runs and steal bases.
