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Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 23 in 2025, or just mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 23 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For those unfamiliar, this is a weekly column where we examine starting pitchers who had surprisingly strong starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.
It was another week of exciting debuts, with two top prospect dazzling in their first MLB starts on Friday. We'll start this week with a breakdown of Jonah Tong's debut against the Marlins. Then, we'll deep dive Payton Tolle's debut for the Red Sox against Pittsburgh. We'll finish it off by putting veteran Cristian Javier under the microscope to see how he looks after returning from Tommy John surgery.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of September 1.
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Jonah Tong, New York Mets – 46% Rostered
2025 Stats (minors): 113.2 IP, 1.43 ERA, 1.69 FIP, 29.9% K-BB%
08/29 vs. MIA: 5 IP, 6 H, 4 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 6 K
The Mets called up yet another top pitching prospect on Friday, with the debut of young right-hander Jonah Tong. Tong was impressive, fanning six Marlins and allowing just one earned run over five innings. There has been a rash of exciting young arms on waivers over the past few weeks, and fantasy managers are rightfully wondering if Tong is the next hot add. Can he be a difference maker for the final month, or is it too early to tell?
Originally a seventh-round pick by the Mets back in 2022, Tong wasn’t initially a big prospect out of Canada but shot up prospect rankings with some dominant minor league performances. His minor league stats from this season are unreal, with a 1.43 ERA, 1.69 FIP, 0.16 HR/9, and 14.17 K/9 in 22 starts. Tong works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider.
Tong is notable for his unique delivery, which evokes memories of former Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum thanks to his big leg lift, high arm angle, and pronounced torso rotation, allowing him to generate power from his back leg. His follow-through is similar as well, with Tong’s right leg ending up high above his head. They have different repertoires so the comparison is mostly mechanical, but it is fun to see such a unique delivery in the majors again. Here is a Tong fastball from this start, to see the delivery.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 1, 2025
Tong, like Lincecum, is also an undersized righty at 6’1” 180 lbs, but Tong gets seven feet of extension on his pitches thanks to this delivery. More extension increases a pitch’s perceived velocity, because the more extension a pitcher gets, the closer the ball is being released to home plate. Thus, allowing Tong’s 95.4 mph fastball to seem even harder to opposing hitters.
Tong’s fastball was on for him in this start, and he was throwing it often with a 61% usage rate. Tong averaged good velocity in this start at 95.4 mph, with a max of 97.7. It’s not just about velocity for Tong, however, as he got some impressive movement on his heater in this start. Tong averaged a whopping 21.4 inches of induced vertical break along with 4.3 inches of arm side run. This gives his fastball a unique shape that could be difficult for hitters to square up. Here’s a look at his pitch movement profile from this start (four-seamer in red).
Note how the pitch deviates from a typical fastball. That’s thanks to the extreme amount of backspin Tong is generating on his fastball, creating vertical break. Tong only averaged 2284 RPM with his fastball in this start, but he had 98% active spin, meaning that 98% of the spin was contributing to the pitch’s movement. This amount of break gives a fastball good “rise”, meaning that a thrown pitch drops less than the batter expects due to the movement induced by the pitcher, giving the illusion of rise. Tong’s fastball has excellent movement in addition to its plus velocity, making it a strong offering that should perform well in the majors.
Tong relied heavily on the fastball in this one, but he also mixed in a healthy amount of changeups too, throwing the pitch 25% of the time. An 85.6 mph offering, Tong uses a Vulcan grip with his changeup. He got decent movement with the pitch in this start, including 15.5 inches of arm side run. Here’s an example of the pitch.
He only got two whiffs on eight swings, but this pitch was a dominant strikeout offering in the minor leagues, with a whiff rate of 50%. Tong likely won’t be able to replicate that in the majors, but hopefully he can generate more whiffs with the pitch going forward.
Tong also used his curveball 13.4% of the time in this start, and got some impressive results. A loopy 77.7 mph offering, Tong got three whiffs on six swings with the pitch in this start. Here’s an example of the pitch.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 1, 2025
I think Joey Wiemer’s soul left his body for a moment on that swing. It looked like a plus curveball in this start, and Tong averaged -17.3 inches of induced vertical break with the pitch. That is some extreme drop that gives the pitch a unique shape. Let’s have a look at that pitch movement profile again (curveball in blue).
It drops way below the average curveball, which should give pitch plenty of swing-and-miss potential. It should also help Tong induce groundballs as this curve is tough to elevate. He’s had ground-ball rates around 50% throughout his minor league career and with this pitch profile he could replicate that in the major leagues.
One area of concern I have for Tong has nothing to do with his pitching, but his role on the team. The Mets have called it a fluid six-man group and have at least said that Tong will make his next start against the Reds on Friday 9/5. Unfortunately, nothing is guaranteed for Tong after that. The Mets have four veterans that they likely wouldn’t kick to the bullpen, though Clay Holmes has the experience. They also have Nolan McLean who has been dominating since his promotion to the majors. That leaves Tong as a potential odd man out, and one or two bad starts could have him back in the minors. That won’t scare me away from picking him up, but just know that his rotation spot may be precarious.
Verdict:
A unique, Lincecum-like delivery make Tong a fun pitcher to watch work. His 95 mph heat is made even better thanks to an elite seven feet of extension on his delivery and 21.4 inches of induced vertical break with the pitch. This fastball really comes at hitters with plenty of rise and an increased perceived velocity. It’s easy to see how hitters would struggle to make solid contact with the pitch, and I think Tong’s best pitch is his fastball.
His changeup is a little raw at this point, though he got some really impressive whiff numbers with it in the minor leagues. Perhaps it could be a good strikeout pitch in the majors, but he only got two whiffs with it in this start and we’ll need to see more out of Tong’s changeup.
His curveball has extreme drop and had a 50% whiff rate in this start, giving it the look and potential of an above average strikeout offering. Tong did throw one slider and was throwing the slider occasionally in the minor leagues, but it’s not a major part of his game like these other pitches. Altogether, Tong is a talented young arm with lots of upside and some truly nutty minor league stats. His rotation spot isn’t guaranteed and I’m not sure how consistent he’ll be, but I think he’s worth the add in standard leagues and deeper.
Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox – 29% Rostered
2025 Stats (minors): 91.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 30.2% K-BB%
08/29 vs. PIT: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Tolle was fantastic during his MLB debut on Friday, striking out eight Pirates in five and one-third innings in the no decision. Tolle is another exciting young prospect who’s recently been called up to help his team out for the playoff push. At 6’6”, 250 lbs Tolle is a big boy looking to make a big impact. Can he be a difference maker for the Red Sox? And, more importantly, can he be a difference maker for our fantasy teams?
Selected in the second round of the 2024 draft out of TCU, Tolle was viewed as an impressive specimen out of college. Not only for his massive size, but for his massive fastball too, which averages about 96 mph and can touch 99. Tolle was seen as raw and needing to develop his secondary stuff, but the potential was tantalizing for the Red Sox. Tolle works with a six pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, slider, curveball, and sinker. He only threw one curveball, one sinker, and four sliders, so they weren’t a big part of Tolle’s approach in this start.
Tolle’s most used pitch was of course the four-seam fastball, which he threw 60% of the time against Pittsburgh. A 96.2 mph offering, Tolle’s fastball must seem even harder to hitters thanks to his elite 7.5 feet of extension. Tolle uses his big frame, low arm slot, and powerful delivery to create this extension, and thus increasing the pitch’s perceived velocity. Tolle already throws exceptionally hard, so the extension just enhances an already strong offering. Here’s a look at Tolle’s delivery on a fastball from this start.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 1, 2025
Tough to catch up to that, and Tolle generated nine of his 14 whiffs with the fastball in this start. Tolle gets solid movement on the pitch, with 16.3 inches of induced vertical break and 6.2 inches of arm side run. It’s not a wildly unique shape like we saw with Jonah Tong, but combined with his velocity and extension makes for a very deceptive and powerful offering. Tolle’s fastball was hailed by scouts as his best pitch, and that looked accurate in this start.
Tolle’s next most used pitch in this start was the cutter, which he threw 24% of the time. A 90.1 mph offering, Tolle’s cutter is sharp with good movement. He got nine inches of induced vertical break and two inches of glove side movement with the pitch in this start. Here’s a few examples of the pitch.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 1, 2025
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 1, 2025
That is some great movement on a cutter, and this pitch could be an excellent pairing with his fastball. He only got two whiffs with the pitch in this start, and cutters aren’t typically big strikeout pitches, but I think Tolle could fool some hitters with this offering. Tolle had a 26.32% whiff rate with the cutter in the minors this season, which is good for that type of pitch.
Tolle’s next most used pitch was the changeup, which he threw 10% of the time against Pittsburgh. Another 90.1 mph offering, Tolle’s changeup was doing a good job generating whiffs, at least on a rate level. He got two whiffs on three swings and had a 25% CSW with the pitch. The pitch has good movement, with 8.1 inches of arm side run. Here’s an example of the pitch.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 1, 2025
Looks pretty good there, with excellent tumble as it breaks towards home plate. The changeup was a big strikeout pitch for Tolle in the minors, with a 50% whiff rate this season. It’s easy to see how batters would be fooled by that pitch after Tolle is peppering them with fastballs upstairs all night. The changeup could end up being Tolle’s hammer; the pitch he uses most with two strikes or when ahead in the count. I think this pitch certainly has the potential to be a strong strikeout offering for Tolle, but we need to see more than eight pitches in one start before we can trust it.
Tolle is a very intriguing young arm, but one concern I have might be that he’s a little raw and unpolished at this point in his career. The fastball is far and away his best pitch, and he might be over reliant on it when he first starts out. The fastball looks like a plus offering and he should find success with it, but these are major league hitters we’re talking about.
Tolle’s cutter has decent movement and I think there’s a lot of potential in his changeup, but he is far from a finished product. I do think he’s worth the add, but I worry what’ll happen when he faces stiffer competition than the Pirates, who have a pathetic .280 wOBA as a team against left-handed pitchers this season.
Tolle also has a similar concern to Tong and that is uncertainty in role. Tolle’s next start hasn’t been confirmed by the Red Sox as of writing this, but as it lines up he would go Wednesday 9/3 against Cleveland. That would be another great matchup as Cleveland is somehow worse than Pittsburgh with a .277 wOBA against lefties this season. The problem is, Tolle may or may not be a permanent piece in Boston’s rotation. They did just release Walker Buehler and put Richard Fitts on the injured list, so their pitching depth is running thin and I don’t think they have any better options within the organization. It would probably be Kyle Harrison or Cooper Criswell from the minors, but Tolle would likely be a more effective pitcher than either of those two.
Verdict:
Yet another young phenom got the call, and fantasy managers should consider using their FAB once again, if they've got any left that is. Tolle’s best pitch is a 96 mph fastball that plays up thanks to his elite 7.5 feet of extension and 16.3 inches of induced vertical break. This heater mowed down the Pirates, with Tolle racking up nine whiffs with his fastball alone in this start. He pairs the fastball with a 90 mph cutter that has strong horizontal movement, which could allow the pitch to generate more whiffs than a typical cutter. Cutters aren’t big strikeout pitches to begin with, but there’s some potential for swing-and-miss with this pitch.
One really intriguing pitch with swing-and-miss potential is Tolle’s changeup, which had a 67% whiff rate in this start and has some strong arm side movement and tumble. The changeup has dominated minor league hitting, and there’s strikeout upside here, though we need to see more. Ultimately, Tolle is a very talented but still raw young arm that needs some seasoning. He is worth the add in most leagues if you can spare the roster spot, because I think he could have some good strikeout upside and pitches for a winning ballclub. His next probable start—if he makes it--is a juicy one against a weak Cleveland lineup that struggles to hit lefties.
Cristian Javier, Houston Astros – 21% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 10 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 8.7% K-BB%
08/29 vs. LAA: 6 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Javier was fantastic on Friday night, tossing six innings of no-hit ball in the no decision against the Angels. This was the deepest Javier has pitched into a game since returning from the injured list this season, finishing six innings and throwing 85 pitches. Javier was once a rotation mainstay for both the Astros and fantasy teams, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2024 and has only made four starts this season. Can Javier be a valuable piece again, or should we leave him on waivers?
Originally signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, Javier wasn’t a huge prospect when he came up through Houston’s system. He was ranked as the Astros’ sixth-best prospect in January 2020 by Fangraphs, with Javier projecting as a future mid- or back-end rotation arm. Javier works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-same fastball, sweeper, changeup, knuckle curve, and sinker.
Javier’s most used pitch this season has been the four-seam fastball, and that was no different in this outing against Los Angeles. Javier threw his fastball 53% of the time against the Angels, which is actually 10% higher than his overall season usage. Javier has always taken a fastball-heavy approach with a 57.9% career usage rate. One concern for Javier is whether he would regain his fastball velocity following Tommy John surgery.
Javier was never a particularly hard thrower with a career average of 93.1 mph, but that means he had very little room to give up velocity. He only averaged 91.7 mph with his fastball last season, and there aren’t many successful right-handers throwing 91 mph in MLB these days. Fortunately, his velocity seems to have come back, with Javier averaging 93.4 mph in this start and 93 mph on the year.
It's great to see the velocity back for Javier’s fastball, but what about the movement? Javier was known for his unique fastball shape thanks to elite induced vertical break, and it looks like the fastball shape is intact. Javier has averaged 18.9 inches of induced vertical break and 4.3 inches of arm side run. Let’s compare Javier’s pitch movement profile from this season to 2022, his best year when he had a 2.54 ERA in 148.2 innings (four-seamer in red).
2025:
2022:
He’s lost a few inches of horizontal movement, and that is evident when comparing these two plots. Still, this is a lot of vertical movement and Javier has maintained his spin rate of 2366 RPM this season as well. That number may not jump off the page, but he has an 89% active spin rate, so most of his spin is contributing to the movement of the pitch.
Something that Javier was excellent at before his surgery was inducing favorable contact with his fastball, and he’s done that so far. He has an 85.4 mpg average exit velocity and a 32-degree average launch angle against. Javier has long had extreme fly-ball tendencies, with a career ground-ball rate of just 26.3%. Flyballs are the least likely batted ball type to fall for a hit, so it can be an effective approach for pitchers to induce a lot of flyballs.
It is risky of course, because flyballs also tend to lead to extra-base hits more often too. Javier only has a 0.56 HR/9 so far, but his career 1.29 HR/9 suggests that that number will rise. He should be able to keep things relatively in check if he can continue to generate such weak contact with the fastball, but he’s never had an exit velocity this low with his four-seamer in the past. He usually hovers around 89-90 mph, and that’s where I’d expect it to end up over time.
Javier relied heavily on the fastball in this one, but a starter can’t throw just fastballs, and Javier mixed in plenty of secondary stuff as well. His most used secondary offering was the sweeper, which he threw 19% of the time. A 78.4 mph offering, Javier’s sweeper is a softer, loopier pitch than a traditional slider. It has maintained its movement pre-surgery with 44.1 inches of drop and 16.8 inches of break. It actually has more break now than it did pre-surgery. Here’s an example from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 1, 2025
It looks good there, and this pitch has performed very well for Javier so far. Opponents are hitting .083 off the sweeper with a .333 SLG and a .170 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Javier has earned these results with a .092 xBA, .175 xSLG, and .111 xwOBA. He also has a solid 34.8% whiff rate, though he didn’t earn a single whiff with the sweeper in this start. In fact, eight of his nine whiffs came on the fastball, which is a little disappointing because the Angels have a 26.2% K rate against right-handed pitchers this season, highest in the majors.
One would expect more out of his secondary stuff against such a vulnerable lineup. That doesn't mean the sweeper is a bad pitch, it has all the ingredients of a plus offering, but I think Javier’s strikeout upside is limited. He put up a monster 32.1% strikeout rate between 2021-2022, but has only had a 22.3% strikeout rate since then. The stuff still looks crisp, but I’d expect him to sit around the 22% range over time.
His next most used pitch in this start was the knuckle curve, which he threw 13% of the time. Javier has some strong measurables on his curveball, including 3005 RPM and -11.5 inches of drop and 11.7 inches of glove side movement. It’s another soft offering at just 76.4 mph, with a big loop and plenty of movement. Here’s an example of the pitch.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 1, 2025
A nice traditional knuckle curve. Unfortunately, the pitch hasn’t performed all that great thus far, with batters hitting .250 with a .250 SLG and a .263 wOBA. The wOBA and SLG aren’t so bad, but a .297 xBA and a pitiful 9.1% whiff rate suggest that the pitch is underwhelming. The whiff rate could be low due to small sample size as Javier is usually around 30% with this pitch, so we’ll have to see if he can pick things up with the curve. A zero-whiff performance with the pitch against the free-swinging Angels won’t help much. This has been a reliable pitch for Javier in the past, so it wouldn’t be out of the question to see the whiff rate tick up.
Javier also featured a sinker and a changeup in this one, though his changeup usage was down to 5% in this game compared to 15.4% on the year. The Angels deployed a righty-heavy lineup against Javier last Friday with just two left-handed hitting players starting. Perhaps that’s why he didn’t throw many changeups, as he primarily throws it to left-handed hitters. The changeup had never been a big feature pitch for Javier until last season, when he threw it 26.8% of the time. It has a strong 36% whiff rate this season, but I’m not sure I trust him to maintain that rate. He’s only had a rate that high once in 2023, and he only used his changeup 4.1% of the time that season.
His sinker is a 92.9 mph offering that he’s started throwing this season. He’s only thrown it 9.8% of the time so far, and he’s thrown it exclusively to right-handed hitters. He gets decent movement with the pitch at 13.8 inches of induced vertical break and 13.8 inches of arm side run. The sinker has been another extreme flyball pitch for Javier, with a 38-degree average launch angle against thus far. This new pitch won’t totally rework his pitch sequencing or repertoire, but it gives Javier a second fastball and another weapon to use against major league hitters.
Verdict:
Odds are, Javier will never reach the heights of 2021-2022. He was a downright dominant pitcher during that stretch, with a 2.95 ERA and 11.7 K/9 in 250 IP. Still, even if he’s not a frontline starter there could be some fantasy value here. Javier is still getting good movement with his fastball, and has regained lost velocity following Tommy John surgery. He’s still using a fastball-heavy approach to induce flyballs for easy outs for his fielders. It is an effective but dangerous strategy, and I would expect his current 0.56 HR/9 to rise. He simply won’t be able to maintain a 4.2% HR/FB rate and his ERA will creep closer to that ugly 5.29 xFIP.
His secondary stuff is a bit of a mixed bag. The sweeper has looked really strong this season and the performance matches, though he got zero whiffs with the sweeper in this start and he’s never had his sweeper perform quite this good before. He will likely experience regression with the pitch. His knuckle curve has long been good pitch for him, but it has an underwhelming 9.1% whiff rate that Javier will need to improve on.
He’s a little risky thanks to potential home run issues and poor control at times, with a 13.4% BB rate so far. I’d consider Javier a viable streamer in standard leagues, though I’m still not ready to trust him against tough opponents. He was up-and-down even before the surgery and has only made four starts so far, so he’s still getting situated. His next start is scheduled for Thursday against the Yankees, and I’d probably avoid him there. The Yankees .338 wOBA as a team is the highest against right-handed pitchers in the majors this season.
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