1 month agoIt has been a quietly successful run over the last four events for Jimmy Stanger, with a most recent finish of T35 at The Players. The PGA Tour rookie has been a beast with the driver, as he ranks 15th in strokes gained off the tee on the season (0.603). His poor ranking of 122nd in strokes gained on approach (-0.175) is heavily impacted by his first four events of the season where he averaged -1.15 strokes gained on approach. That metric has improved to an average of 0.41 over his last 10 rounds played. For the way the season has gone other than Scheffler's dominance the last couple of weeks, Stanger seems like a perfect candidate to take advantage of the weaker field this week.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
1 month agoSam Burns' statistics suggest he should already have a win this season. Burns went on a run of top-10 finishes after Sentry but had two disappointing finishes in Florida. At the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship, Burns struggled on Sunday and plummeted down the leaderboard after solid previous rounds in both. Burns also could have won the American Express if not for one shot that found the water on hole 17. This course where he's already won twice might be just what he needs to put four rounds together.
--Rob Rose - RotoBallerSource: pgatour.com
1 month agoAnother great week for Xander Schauffele ended just short of a win. While Schauffele has struggled to secure wins at the rate his skills suggest he should, he's on a tear to start this season. The putter had been the club holding Schauffele back but he's gained strokes each event since the Florida swing began. There's no player in the field better than Schauffele this week, but being priced atop the field means he likely needs to win to be worth playing.
--Rob Rose - RotoBallerSource: pgatour.com
1 month agoComing off his best finish of the season with a T11 at The Players, Taylor Montgomery is making his tournament debut at the Copperhead Course with a ton of momentum. The 29-year-old from Vegas gained strokes in every category at TPC Sawgrass, highlighted by 1.65 strokes gained putting (3rd best in the field) and 0.63 strokes gained around the green (9th best in the field). Taylor is handicapped some by his length off the tee with an average drive of 291.4, currently ranked 120th on year, and at 7,340 yards, it certainly isn't the shortest course on the circuit. At $9,600 on FanDuel, Montgomery is certainly worth considering this week.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
1 month agoThorbjorn Oleson is making just his third PGA Tour start of the season this week at the Copperhead Course, but his knack for finding ways to play well on American soil can't be overstated, though his two performances in 2024 haven't exactly reflected that. A three-week tournament run in January on the DP World Tour concluded with a win at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, where he gained 1.79 strokes putting, 1.33 strokes on approach, and a whopping 4.02 total strokes gained. With only two events played since then, it's hard to know exactly where his game is coming into the week. At $9,900 on FanDuel, he's an expensive dart throw that could go either way.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
1 month agoIn three attempts at the Copperhead Course, Andrew Putnam has missed the cut in horrendous fashion on all three occasions. However, those examples have been in the middle or end of bad stretches which dilutes the idea that he doesn't particularly enjoy this course. From a momentum standpoint, Putnam is coming into the week with more than we have seen in years past. He'll need to keep the strong play going on and around the greens to have any chance, as he is ranked 34th in strokes gained putting (0.350) and 48th in strokes gained around the greens (0.207). But what's more intriguing is that he has averaged 1.41 strokes gained on approach over his last two events. If there's ever a time to have high hopes for the former Pepperdine U golfer at this event, now would be it.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
1 month agoNothing about Taylor Moore's game in 2024 jumps out at you on paper other than his knack for playing the weekends, as he is six for six on made cuts. But a T25 at the Sentry as his best finish doesn't exactly push the needle for those looking to play him in DFS tournaments. However, the Valspar is notorious for repeated success in players, and the fact that the former Arkansas Razorback is coming off a week at The Players where he gained strokes in every strokes gained statistic is intriguing. Moore has gained an average of 0.742 strokes on approach over his last four tournaments and has averaged 0.917 total strokes gained over the same span. It seems like a relatively high floor, but at $9,300 on FanDuel, it's hard to know exactly where the ceiling is.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
1 month agoOther than the Sentry, the first half of the season has been one to forget for Sepp Straka. He has lost considerable strokes on the greens (currently 140th in strokes gained putting: -0.405) and seems to either be red hot or ice cold with his irons, which is a recipe for frustrating rounds, both as a player and for those placing him in their fantasy lineups. The 30-year-old Austrian has performed well in the Florida swing historically, though he hasn't shown much interest in this event with a lone finish of T46 in 2019. He seems like the perfect reflection of winners this season minus the past two weeks, and if the superb ball striking we saw at The Players (1.35 strokes gained on approach) hangs around, it could be another solid week.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
1 month agoAfter a strong start to the year, Patrick Rogers is looking to bounce back from a missed cut at The Players. He didn't play badly at the Stadium Course, but hanging around even par at most events on tour doesn't typically make a lot of cuts. On the year though, he has been fairly steady, ranking just inside the top 50 in strokes gained off the tee (0.292) and strokes gained tee to green (0.428). His history around the Copperhead Course is a cause for concern, with four of six tries resulting in a missed cut and a best finish of T36 last year. Those willing to take a shot on him this week at $9,800 on FanDuel will be hoping that the good form will be enough to overcome the historical trend, and in this field, it's completely possible.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
1 month agoComing off a T9 at The Players Championship where he led the field in strokes gained around the green (1.98) and was 12th in strokes gained tee to green (1.92), Maverick McNealy is coming into this week's Valspar Championship with a full head of steam. It was clear he wasn't quite ready for the moment on Sunday, but with two top 10s and a top 15 in three of his last four starts, it's hard to argue he isn't one of the hottest players in the field coming in. The Stanford Alum is inside the top 35 in all strokes gained categories except strokes gained on approach (currently ranked 141st: -0.355), so if he can even somewhat right the ship with his irons, he is a strong play at $9,600 on FanDuel
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
1 month agoComing off a missed cut at The Players, it has been a roller coaster for Adam Hadwin over the last two-and-a-half months. He has yet to chain any good performances together, and the biggest cause is the inconsistency from his normally strong play on the greens. The Canadian is currently ranked 96th in strokes gained putting (-0.039), a stat in which he ranked 21st last season. Hadwin's history at the Copperhead Course has been turbulent, to put it lightly. His lone career victory came at this event in 2017, however, there have been more missed cuts than noteworthy performances since then. At $10,100 on FanDuel, the risk will likely not be worth the reward.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
1 month agoIt was another solid showing last week at The Players for Aaron Rai. He finished T35 in the strongest field on the PGA Tour thanks to his solid ball striking both off the tee (0.56 strokes gained off the tee) and on approach (0.67 strokes gained on approach). The Englishman is making his tournament debut at the Copperhead Course this week, and doing everything right from tee to green to have success. The determining factor is whether he can find any luck with the flat stick, as he ranks 125th in strokes gained putting (-0.270) on the season. At $9,900 on FanDuel, Rai doesn't feel like a risky play, but he isn't an exciting one either.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
1 month agoThe Florida Swing hasn't been nearly as kind as in years past for Christiaan Bezuidenhout, as he's lost a cumulative 1.6 shots to the field in two lackluster starts in Orlando and Palm Beach Gardens. Sawgrass, however, compares quite favorably to another Pete Dye design (PGA West), that saw Bezuidenhout finish as a runner-up two months ago at the American Express. Christiaan also spent the first three rounds of 2023's PLAYERS Championship inside the top five, before a final-round 74 pushed him back into a tie for 13th at week's end. The recent iron and putting returns have been quite good for the South African International this season, but until he's finally able to get over the winning hump in the United States, questions will remain about his true upside. With two made cuts in two starts in Ponte Vedra, as well as his historic affinity within the state of Florida, Bezuidenhout does make for a safe, if unremarkable option for fantasy lineups.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
1 month agoAfter an opening-round 78 at the Cognizant Classic two weeks ago provided a disastrous start to his annual homecoming, Eric Cole rebounded quite nicely at a much more demanding track in Orlando. The Delray Beach native shot (-1) over four days at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill: gaining over 2.5 shots on the field average in a 21st-place finish. If Cole remains in the mood for a difficult venue, TPC Sawgrass will be the perfect spot for him to continue back on the comeback trail, as the ever-present threat of water and one of the highest miss penalties on the PGA Tour will have no problem flushing out those with severe ball-striking deficiencies. Cole had no problem navigating the trouble here last year: shooting scores of 69/68 on the weekend to settle into a comfortable 23rd-place finish. Given the metronomic consistency we've seen out of him since his arrival on Tour last season, it's difficult to bet against Eric Cole -- particularly on these shorter, positional tracks.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
1 month agoDespite a year of phenomenal firsts for Brian Harman in 2023, the fanfare has not yet reached fever pitch for the Georgia Bulldog to this point in the New Year. Harman still feels like a man still on the precipice of breaking through the glass ceiling of superstardom, and weeks like this in Ponte Vedra present prime opportunities for him to raise that profile. Harman has recorded three top-10 finishes over his last eight starts here at Sawgrass, and his combination of precision off of the tee and touch on and around the greens make him one of the premier course fits on these positional venues. Couple that historic prowess on this layout with the best iron week he's had in eight months last week (+5.6 SG: APP), and Harman seems to be checking an awful lot of boxes for a guy coming into the week without much attention.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
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