PGA Best Bets: Novig Matchup Picks and Finishing Position Props for The PLAYERS Championship

March 10, 2026

RotoBaller's top PGA player props, best bets, and matchup picks for the 2026 PLAYERS Championship. Get commission-free odds and market edges with Novig golf picks.

Thanks for joining me again here at RotoBaller! This week, we'll take a look at some of the juicier matchup spots and finishing position props available for golf's "Fifth Major", The PLAYERS Championship. While there are exceptions to every rule, this event - especially in the past decade - has been won largely by elite golfers with major-championship pedigrees, and there are two such players I find to be exceptional outright value plays this week.

This week's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your season-long, DFS, and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite PGA bets and props for the 2026 PLAYERS Championship.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, tournament matchups, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.

If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.

Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

PGA Tournament Matchup Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate/available as of 3/10/2026.

Si Woo Kim OVER Russell Henley (+108 at Novig)

I'm not normally going out of my way to pick on Russ Henley, but it's impossible to ignore the number here. Novig is the only spot I've found Si Woo at plus money in this matchup, so I'll look to grab some value with the South Korean at +108.

Henley is well known for his high-end consistency, but his track record on this tricky TPC Sawgrass labels leans more feast-or-famine. He's missed the cut in half of his 12 career starts in The PLAYERS. The UGA alum is also just a couple of weeks removed from his worst outing in recent memory - a missed cut at the Genesis Invitational.

Conversely, Kim is often identified by his volatile output. However, he's been the picture of consistency both as of late and at TPC Sawgrass. In his nine career PLAYERS appearances, the South Korean has a win and two additional top-10 finishes. Tossing out a WD in 2022, he's never missed a cut in the "Fifth Major." Currently ranked second on the PGA Tour in SG: APP, Kim's recent form has been white hot. He's reeled off 14 straight made cuts with five top-5 finishes among those.

Ricky Castillo OVER Sungjae Im (+102 at Novig)

This is a classic case of name recognition bias from the markets, as I actually have rising star Ricky Castillo projected as a slight favorite over the well-known Im.

Castillo is coming in off the first PGA Tour win of his career in last week's Puerto Rico Open, a situation where we sometimes see a letdown, but sometimes see an injection of confidence. Though he missed the cut in his first career PLAYERS start last year, Castillo is a Jacksonville native and University of Florida alum who is intimately familiar with TPC Sawgrass and the environment of Florida golf.

Though Castillo possesses enough talent to deserve consideration no matter the circumstances, he does draw a perhaps less-than-full-strength Im here. The notable South Korean grinder missed the first two months of 2026 with a wrist injury that flared up at the end of 2025 and caused him to be sidelined for the first seven events of this year.

Im made his first post-rehab start last week at Bay Hill, where he unsurprisingly missed the cut while losing 5.0 strokes T2G. While his PLAYERS track record is rock solid, I have very real questions about lingering rust as he ramps back up off the first extended break of his career.

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PGA Finishing Position Props

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 3/10/2026

Xander Schauffele WINNER (+3233 at Novig)

With concerns about Rory McIlroy's back and Scottie Scheffler's sudden "cold spell", I'm intrigued by Xander's number at Novig, which is a better value than you'll see at FanDuel (+3000) or DraftKings (+2900). It's sometimes easy to forget that Schauffele won two major championships in 2024, and looked set to rival the likes of Scheffler and McIlroy before an injury forced him to miss more than two months at the outset of 2025.

The X-Man quietly improved as last year progressed and won the Baycurrent Classic in October to little fanfare. His game has been low-key trending in 2026, and he heads to Sawgrass having gained strokes T2G in four straight starts. The Californian has also flashed plenty of upside on this Pete Dye layout, and boasts a pair of runner-up finishes across seven career PLAYERS appearances.

Brooks Koepka WINNER (+11011 at Novig)

Yes, it feels like a bit of crazy bet on the surface, but this Novig number represents crazy value relative to Koepka's current odds that fall somewhere between +4500 to +6000 around the industry.

His return to the PGA Tour has been less than storybook to this point, but let's remember that this is a player who has never been overly concerned with his performance in "regular" Tour events. The "Big Game Hunter" has made a career of winning major championships seemingly out of nowhere, and perhaps this week's PLAYERS is one of those no-one-sees-it-coming Koepka spots.

The five-time major champion's ball-striking has been under-the-radar good this year, while a switch to a mallet putter led to a positive week on the greens at the Cognizant, which translated to a season-best T9 result. His best career finish in The PLAYERS is a T11, which doesn't exactly scream "course fit", but anytime I see "Brooksy" with odds of over 100-1 in a big event, I'm looking for reasons to take a flier... and there are enough for me here.

More PGA Analysis and Picks

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