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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is rolling along and there are just a couple of weeks left in the regular season! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, May 5th, 2021 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/5
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- Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators
- Nashville Predators vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
- Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers
- Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Anaheim Ducks vs. St. Louis Blues
- Vegas Golden Knights vs. Minnesota Wild
- Winnipeg Jets vs. Calgary Flames
- Colorado Avalanche vs. San Jose Sharks
- Los Angeles Kings vs. Arizona Coyotes
Please note that this is part of an inverted week with eight Wednesday night games.
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a nine-game main slate, picking the right goalie will be a little bit easier. Could taking a Washington Capitals goalie be a wise choice against a very depleted New York Rangers team? Will we see Andrei Vasilevskiy surface against a Dallas Stars team?
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Can St. Louis keep the momentum rolling against the Anaheim Ducks again?
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The "temptation" to try and game stack is not quite as prevalent with a nine-game slate. Just be careful if one tries to go that route.
Does any game have the potential to feature a goalie duel? It would appear no on the surface. None of these six games seem to appeal that way.
Finally, this main slate is like a Tuesday or Thursday night schedule. At the very least, the extra late games will add a little entertainment to the DFS mix.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple once more but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Nathan MacKinnon, COL ($9,200 DK / $9,100 FD) - Thankfully there is only one player over $9,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel on Wednesday night. If it wasn't for Connor McDavid, we would be talking about MacKinnon nonstop here. As it is, MacKinnon has five goals and 12 assists over his last ten games. Furthermore, the Colorado center has fired a whopping 52 shots on goal and has generated 41 scoring chances. The last two games against San Jose alone have turned into a MacKinnon revenge tour. He has a goal and three assists and gets one more meeting with the Sharks. The idea is to stack around MacKinnon a bit to defer some costs. No other center is above $8,500 on Wednesday night by the way.
- Tomas Hertl, SJS ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD) - Yes, we do not care that it is Colorado on Wednesday but Hertl has been too good of late. He has eight points in his last five games including four multi-point effort contests. Hertl may not pile on the shots like a MacKinnon but in a game where seven or more goals are expected, Hertl should thrive nicely. The center has been much better over the second half of the season. Colorado has had some problems containing the top six of San Jose. This shapes up to be quite an interesting matchup that Hertl could win again on Wednesday.
This is an easier than usual Wednesday night slate. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable (see the West Coast games) but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. Watch for some line shifts -- especially with the later contests. Also, be aware of load management and game-time decisions. This is the time of year where scratches and injuries just seem to appear out of nowhere. Chandler Stephenson is worth a look again from Vegas and maybe Mika Zibanejad as New York's number one option.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Kirill Kaprizov, MIN ($6,400 DK / $6,600 FD) - Kaprizov has more value than usual because simply his price has not moved much despite the fact that he has eight goals in his last ten games. In the last five contests, Kaprizov has 19 shots on 33 attempts. He has three or more scoring chances in every one of those games. Vegas had a difficult time trying to contain him on Monday. One of his points was a power-play assist as the Minnesota power play continues to click way above what it did earlier in the season. Watch to see if Max Pacioretty is held out on Wednesday for Vegas as Kaprizov would carry even more value on this slate.
- Filip Forsberg, NSH ($6,600 DK/ $7,300 FD) - Forsberg looked more like his normal self on Monday again and was rewarded with top-line ice time. He had a goal and an assist on Monday with four shots on goal and three scoring chances versus Columbus. Nashville needs its top left-winger to keep scoring as they try to stay ahead of Dallas in the race for the final playoff spot in the Central Division. The Predators also have to keep the offensive foot on the gas pedal. They blew a 3-0 lead on Monday night.
- Tyler Toffoli, MTL ($6.900 DK/ $6,900 FD) - Toffoli has been arguably as hot when it comes to goal scoring as Kaprizov. He has seven goals in his last nine games on 32 shots. Funny enough, the winger is a hair better on the road than at home. Toffoli has 14 goals on the road in 24 games. That is more than respectable. It's pretty damn good. The Montreal winger has four goals in eight games against Ottawa. It is this recent stretch that has been Montreal's best of the season. The only one that is close is that four-game run against Vancouver early in the season.
The problem tonight may just be too many choices. That may be the wrong wording but honestly, those may be where the profits are. Also, watch for Kyle Connor tonight. Again, at some point, Winnipeg has to win a game. Right? Hopefully? Maybe?
Something else we should add is to stay away from players who are battling nagging injuries. There is the inevitable game-time decision (on larger slates, it may be okay to risk but not here). So many players are just not 100% and it is our job to try and spot them which is why social media is so vital.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Jeff Petry, MTL ($5,500 DK / $5,400 FD) - So, the point here was to take a bit more risk on Wednesday. Petry's shot volume has dropped but his point production has returned. He has nine assists and ten points in his last ten games. The only slight problem is that Petry is averaging two shots a game and one blocked shot a night. It is not terrible but combines that with only one goal in that span and that offers a bit of concern. Petry does have six points in nine games against Ottawa while chipping in three points on the power play.
- Jakob Chychrun, ARZ ($7,300 DK / $5,700 FD) - The defenseman is red hot right now in DFS because the forward options in Arizona have continued to stay cool, unlike the desert. He has averaged 4.5 shots and nearly two blocks per game over the last ten contests. On DraftKings, he hit the shots bonus seven of eight times now. That is rare to do. Los Angeles is another great matchup for Chychrun and even with his price rising, it is a shot worth taking. Plus, he has points in consecutive games with several scoring chances of the medium and high-danger variety. This includes nine shots on goal and six scoring chances against Los Angeles on Monday night. One can always step down to Alex Goligoski if one spent a bit too much on forwards.
Rostering players against the grain a bit may pay off tonight. Take advantage of it! Value plays are very hit and miss tonight because of how this slate is set up. Keep that in mind as one is looking at stacking lines and creating lineups. Players like Erik Karlsson and Jonas Brodin carry some intrigue from the value tier again. Minnesota's defensemen are under-priced on this slate somewhat. San Jose's defensemen are underpriced as well while Montreal and even Vegas defensemen are a bit high-priced.
Please note that Thomas Chabot is out for the season. There will be some that pivot over to Adam Fox and rightfully so. The idea on Wednesday night will be to look at some of the middle-tier on defense. So many upper-tiered defensemen have fallen off some in terms of performance.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.
Goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (the shorter slate and risk are high tonight).
Note: If you do roster a goalie that seems higher-risk to you, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Watch to see who starts for Colorado tonight (should be Philipp Grubauer) against San Jose. Also, does one dare start the New York Rangers goalie? The key tonight may just be patience in waiting to see who starts and does not start. Confirmations on social media should come for the later games closer to that 7:00 pm EDT lock.
The biggest problem with goaltending on Wednesday night is which goaltender starts for Montreal (it should be Jake Allen). Then, it boils down to Juuse Saros or Andrei Vasilevskiy. Choose wisely as they say.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- NYR 1
- Zibanejad/ Buchnevich / Fox from the Defense (do watch a line shift here).
- COL 1
- MacKinnon/ Rantanen / Toews/Girard from the D?
- MIN PP 1
- Kaprizov / Bonino / Fiala (Spurgeon, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: SJS 1, MTL 2, STL 1, MTL 2, WPG 1, VGK 3 (Watch to see what shifts in the late games especially in Los Angeles and San Jose).
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
