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Zach Thompson's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/20/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Pete Crow-Armstrong, Bryce Harper, Trent Grisham, and Christian Moore.
All 30 Major League Baseball teams are in action this Saturday, with the Guardians and Twins playing a doubleheader to increase the total to 16 games on the schedule. Thirteen of those games are under the lights, starting after 6:30 p.m. ET. It should be a good day for hitting overall based on the matchups and environments in play. There are numerous good spots to consider, so let's take a look at a few of the best spots to target in today's home run props.
As you consider the home run props on the board this Saturday, be sure to consider several key factors, including batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially since I usually use these plays in a round robin format at a small unit size. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, September 20, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/20/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, September 20:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
- Trent Grisham, New York Yankees
- Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
- Christian Moore, Los Angeles Angels
Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+319 DraftKings)
Crow-Armstrong has been one of baseball's biggest breakout hitters this season, and he sits just one homer away from joining the 30/30 club coming into Saturday night's game in Cincinnati.
PCA started the season absolutely on fire, hit a bit of a lull, but has picked things back up in September. He has only one home run in his last 20 games, but does have a 50% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate over his last six games, including this blast in Pittsburgh.
No doubter for Pete Crow-Armstrong! pic.twitter.com/BVFn6UOf4G
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 16, 2025
Crow-Armstrong hit 22 of his 29 homers off righties and 16 of them on the road. Against righties on the road, he has 12 homers and a .319 wOBA. His batting average and wOBA have sunk dramatically over the last few months, but he's starting to make solid contact once again and should be in a favorable matchup for his home run props against Reds starting pitcher Zack Littell.
Littell has allowed 34 home runs in his 30 starts, including six in his last two home starts at Great American Ball Park. Only Jake Irvin at 35 has given up more long balls this season, but Littell has actually done an impressive job of limiting damage despite all those home runs, posting a 3.86 ERA and 4.87 FIP. He's 1-0 in eight starts since joining the Reds, with a 4.74 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and 1.65 HR/9.
PCA fireworks haven't been nearly as common as they were earlier in the year, but he still has the potential to go yard on any night, and I think he brings good value in this matchup against Littell as he tries to get to 30 homers on the season.
Trent Grisham OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings)
The Yankees are in the middle of a crowded race to the finish in the AL Wild Card as they visit the Orioles for the weekend. They're two games up on the Red Sox and Astros, who are tied for the other two wild card spots, with the red-hot Guardians 1.5 games behind those two teams. The Yankees slipped up on Friday, losing 4-2, and they'll look to bounce back Saturday night against Tomoyuki Sugano.
Sugano has gone 10-8 in his 28 starts in his first season in the majors after pitching in the NPB in Japan for the last seven seasons. He posted a 4.39 ERA and 5.09 FIP while giving up 28 homers in 28 games. He has given up at least one home run in four straight games, allowing 16 runs and seven homers in 18 1/3 innings.
Lefties have done most of the damage against Sugano this season, hitting 19 of the 28 homers against him. He has also been more hittable at home, where he has given up 17 of those 28 homers, and lefties have a .369 wOBA against him at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Grisham is my favorite of the several strong Yankees lefties worth considering. The 28-year-old has already blown away his previous career-high of 17 homers by smashing 33 long balls in his 135 games this season. He has three homers in his last three games and eight homers in his last 20. Over those 20 games, he has a 55.6% hard-hit rate and a 20% barrel rate with an average exit velocity of 94.4 miles per hour.
He is inevitable.
The Big Sleep goes deep again 🤯 pic.twitter.com/qAollVYwoq
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 18, 2025
Grisham has surprisingly hit 21 of his 33 homers away from Yankee Stadium, where he has a .392 wOBA as opposed to just a .312 wOBA at home. Not surprisingly, he has done most of his damage against righties, hitting 27 homers with a .384 wOBA in the split.
In a favorable spot against Sugano with the splits flashing in his favor, he's a solid value at +300 or greater this Saturday night.
Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+464 DraftKings)
Harper and the Phillies are gearing up for another postseason run, and they will try to continue to dim the Diamondbacks' Wild Card hopes as they continue their trip to Chase Field this Saturday. They'll face Zac Gallen, who has had a rough season for Arizona and is about to hit the open market as a free agent after this season.
Harper has had success against Gallen in the past, going 6-for-15 (.400) in their past meetings. Despite being limited to 126 games this season, Harper has 27 homers to go with his .266 batting average and .369 wOBA. His 48.1% hard-hit rate is his highest since 2021, and his average exit velocity of 91.6 miles per hour is slightly above his career average.
Harper has five homers in his last 17 games, including one against the Dodgers at the start of the team's West Coast trip:
BRYCE HARPER NOW 😮#SEPTEMBERBASEBALL pic.twitter.com/RTemjPTeod
— MLB (@MLB) September 16, 2025
Harper seems like a great value at this price in almost any matchup, but he should be an especially strong option against Gallen, who has a 4.73 ERA and 4.50 FIP on the season with 29 homers allowed in 31 starts. Lefties like Harper are hitting .257 against him with a .329 wOBA. While he has been better lately than he was early in the year, he has still served up six homers in his last seven starts. During the season, the veteran has allowed a 36.1% hard-hit rate and a 9.4% barrel rate.
The Phillies have won 16 of their last 21 games and are just two games behind the Brewers for the best record in baseball. Harper and the rest of the lineup should be in a strong spot against Gallen, and I'm a little surprised his home run props are over +450.
Christian Moore OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+585 DraftKings)
Let's finish tonight's home run props with a long shot play at Coors Field. One of the Angels' top prospects, Moore has looked very strong over the last few games and comes at great value in a favorable matchup.
Moore was the No. 8 overall pick in the 2024 MLB draft, and the Angels have moved him quickly through the minors. The 22-year-old played 25 games as a professional in 2024, and he started this year at Double-A. He actually had better numbers in Triple-A, hitting five homers in 30 games with a .292 batting average and .366 wOBA. He made his MLB debut in June, but only hit .189 with three homers in his 18 games before landing on the injured list with a thumb sprain. He continued to struggle, though, and was optioned to the minors on September 1 for a couple of weeks.
He returned to the majors a week ago and has had a very successful trip with the Halos so far. He is 5-for-20 (.250) with all five hits going for extra bases. He has two doubles and three home runs backed up by a 54.5% hard-hit rate and 18.2% barrel rate. He homered in three of his last five games, including this blast at Coors Field on Friday in the series opener:
LAA - Christian Moore 2-run HR (7)
📏 430 ft | 💨 111.6 mph | 📐 22°
⚾️ 93.1 mph four-seam fastball (COL - RHP Bradley Blalock)
🏟️ Out in 30/30 MLB parksLAA (2) @ COL (2)
🔺 2nd#RepTheHalo pic.twitter.com/dECVVedNxy— MLB Home Runs🚀 (@MLBHRs_) September 20, 2025
He struggled specifically with fastballs in his first major league action, so it's a great sign that he's now smashing them so well. He's loaded with potential in multiple categories and brings both power and speed upside long-term. His batting average is still low, but his power seems to be ready for the highest level.
On Saturday night, Moore will get a good matchup against veteran German Marquez. Marquez made his MLB debut in September of 2016, when Moore was only 13 years old. The righty has spent his whole career with the Rockies, and this season, he has struggled to a 6.73 ERA and 5.24 FIP over 24 starts. He has allowed nine homers in his 10 home starts, and opponents have a .399 wOBA against him at Coors. Marquez has had a long and impressive career but a very tough season.
Moore is looking to prove he's ready to start his career as a part of the Angels' everyday lineup next year, and he offers great value from his home run props as he looks to continue his power surge on Saturday night.
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