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Justin Carter breaks down Patriots QB Cam Newton's Week 1 stats and evaluates whether he is a fantasy football riser at QB going forward in the 2020 NFL season.
Welcome back to the third year of my Tape Tells All column, which is now fresh off a spot as a finalist for the FSWA Football Series of the Year award. Can we get that top spot this time around? The push for the honors begins now!
If you haven't read this column before, here's what it is: a misleadingly-named look at the film and the advanced stats behind a selected player's performance from the previous week of NFL games. The tape doesn't actually tell us everything, but it serves as a starting point for our investigation of how a player looked that week and what that means for fantasy managers going forward.
This week, we begin in New England with new Patriots quarterback Cam Newton. Newton was 15-for-19 in Week 1, with 155 yards and no scores, but he also added 15 rushing attempts for 75 yards and two rushing touchdowns. What does all that mean?
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Background Information
Oh, where do we begin?
For the first time in a long, long time, the New England Patriots enter the season without Tom Brady -- arguably the GOAT at the quarterback position -- under center. For much of the offseason, it looked like Brady's replacement would be either Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer, neither of whom inspire much confidence as starting options in the NFL.
But then, at the end of June, the team signed former MVP Cam Newton, and while some people still thought there was a battle for the starting spot in Foxborough, it should have been clear that this was Newton's job.
Injuries have plagued Newton's career, but when healthy, he's a multi-dimensional threat. In that 2015 MVP season, Newton threw for 3,837 yards and 35 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. On the ground, he added 636 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Newton is the all-time leader in rushing touchdowns by a quarterback with 60 of them, including two in Week 1.
Newton is coming off a 2019 season in which he played just two games due to injury, and he's joined a New England team that looks fairly light on skill position weapons for him. In the team's 21-11 win over the Dolphins, only two wide receivers -- Julian Edelman and N'Keal Harry -- were targeted. Ryan Izzo received multiple targets. J.J. Taylor had four touches. Newton's working with a supporting cast deficit, which has the ability to derail his 2020 season.
But will it? Let's look at that first game.
The Game Tape
Oh, well...about that game tape.
As of the writing of this, the NFL has not released the All-22 film for Week 1, which means we can't watch the film that actually matters for this week. So, let's instead look at all the available advanced stats and things like that for Newton, and then we can just watch some of the broadcast film from his game, which is not going to be nearly as helpful or satisfying. Sorry!
First, let's talk about his passing game. He was near the bottom of the league in Week 1 in average intended air yards, which suggests that he was throwing shorter passes. Considering how few real weapons Newton has to get the ball to, that makes sense, because there's not a standout deep threat. Newton led the NFL in intended air yards in 2016, so he can definitely throw the ball deep, but the personnel here might prevent him from doing so.
In fact, Newton was last in Week 1 in the longest completed air distance at just 23.8 yards. I do think there's a reason for concern here: as dumb as this sounds, you can't get yards unless you get yards.
Looking at Football Outsiders' passing stats, we see that Newton through one week ranks 14th in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, so right around the middle of the league. He's seventh in QBR.
Of course, Newton's ability as a rusher adds a lot of value to his game. Newton had five red zone rushing attempts this week, which ranks him in a tie for eighth among all players -- not just quarterbacks. His 15 carries were 35.71 percent of the rushing attempts for the Patriots, were the most of anyone on the team, and he received 55.56 percent of their red zone carries.
A healthy Cam Newton will get a huge amount of rushing attempts, which will lead to chances for him to do this:
Newton's such a force when he's moving with the ball because you can't fully sell out and play the run since he can sling the ball around. On this play, Newton just jogs in for a way-too-easy score. But on this play...
...we do get to see why Newton's so frightening if you're a defensive coordinator. He's way too fast for you to cover with a defensive lineman, as we see Newton pretty easily gets past that first defender. From there, another Dolphin is barreling down on Newton and gets to him right around the one-yard line. What does Cam do?
ABSORBS THAT CONTACT AND GETS INTO THE END ZONE.
Sorry, got really excited there.
Fantasy Impact
So, what does Cam Newton's Patriots debut say about his fantasy value?
I think the biggest thing is that we saw he's still Cam Newton as a rusher. He's still got some great vision. He still can drag some defenders and is probably the best between-the-tackles runner on this whole roster. That gives him a lot of fantasy upside.
But while Newton's passing was accurate, I have serious concerns about his upside in an offense that has a severe lack of weapons. Only two wide receivers had catches! Ryan Izzo played most of the game, and until recently, I thought "Izzo" on the Patriots was somehow still Larry Izzo, which makes no sense.
The Patriots are giving Cam Newton one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL. He had just one deep passing attempt. He was 32nd in the league in attempts.
But, he also currently ranks really high in some efficiency stats, such as fourth in accuracy rating, fifth in true completion percentage, and first in red-zone completion percentage.
Newton can get the ball to his receivers, but it's likely we see a ton of short passes. Without much of a vertical passing game, Newton's overall ceiling is capped.
I think fantasy managers should feel encouraged about this week. Newton's going to float between being a low-end QB1 and high-end QB2 all season as long as he's healthy.
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